Emerging and frontier market equity analyst, AlphaBox Advisors

Mohit Surana

Emerging and frontier market equity analyst

Value-Investing Philosophy and Bottom-up Approach

AlphaBox Advisors

At AlphaBox, our recommendations are sector and country agnostic and diversified by market cap. We follow value-investing philosophy and pursue a bottom-up approach to recommending stocks that has a good risk-reward profile and potential to generate market-beating returns, which in some cases would be complemented with an attractive dividend yield. Our recommendations fall into the following two broad categories: (i) Long-term Compounders – Global Markets (ii) EM and FM Alpha

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Kazakh government silently allowed Russia to buy 49% stake in JV Budenovskoye sometime in 2021-H2.</li>
<li>Kazatomprom owned 51% in the JV, but the deal was not properly disclosed in Kazatomprom reports.</li>
<li>Many company officials resigned since the deal fearing breach of legal duty on disclosure.</li>
</ul>


The Kazakh government silently allowed Russia to buy 49% stake in JV Budenovskoye sometime in 2021-H2.
Kazatomprom owned 51% in the JV, but the deal was not properly disclosed in Kazatomprom reports.
Many company officials resigned since the deal fearing breach of legal duty on disclosure.


Kazatomprom (KAP LI): Revelation Of A Silent Uranium Deal

<ul>
<li>Kazatomprom is the world’s largest Uranium miner with the lowest cost of production.  </li>
<li>The company has strong fundamentals with demand supply dynamics expected to steadily become more favorable going forward.</li>
<li>Geopolitical concerns, which is the main reason for its low P/E, should subside as time passes by. </li>
</ul>


Kazatomprom is the world’s largest Uranium miner with the lowest cost of production.  
The company has strong fundamentals with demand supply dynamics expected to steadily become more favorable going forward.
Geopolitical concerns, which is the main reason for its low P/E, should subside as time passes by. 


Kazatomprom NAC (KAP LI): Strong Fundamentals and Improving Demand Supply Dynamics.

Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Janus Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bearish outlook on the nuclear industry could be too optimistic</li>
<li>No Chinese nuclear station has commenced construction since 2016</li>
<li>5-year forecast for uranium demand to decelerate due to growth in decommissioning </li>
<li>Est. prices &lt;US$20/lb U3O8 within the next several years to restore mkt equilibrium</li>
<li>Despite low inventories, non-critical nature of Zn depresses prices</li>
<li>Political pressure increasing against NPI mining in Indonesia and Philippines</li>
<li>Indonesia and Philippines account for ~40% of global Ni supply</li>
<li>Ni consumption predicted to grow at 4.7% CAGR over the next few years</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nac-kazatomprom-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27845:1" rel="noopener">NAC Kazatomprom JSC (KAP LI), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cameco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25364:1" rel="noopener">Cameco Corp (CCO CN), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yellow-cake-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27844:1" rel="noopener">Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-billiton-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5424:1" rel="noopener">Bhp Billiton Ltd (Adr) (BHP US), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peel-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4111:1" rel="noopener">Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-rim-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8395:1" rel="noopener">Golden Rim Resources (GMR AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/focus-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10577:1" rel="noopener">Focus Minerals (FML AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jameson-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1923:1" rel="noopener">Jameson Resources (JAL AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/red-5-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7940:1" rel="noopener">Red 5 Ltd (RED AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacifico-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11085:1" rel="noopener">Pacifico Minerals (PMY AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausmex-mining-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11167:1" rel="noopener">Ausmex Mining Group (AMG AU), Calidus Resources (ASX: CAI), Venturex (ASX: VRX), Saturn Minerals (ASX: STN), Indiana Resources (ASX: IDA), Ora Banda (ASX: OBM) </a>
</li>
</ul>


Our bearish outlook on the nuclear industry could be too optimistic
No Chinese nuclear station has commenced construction since 2016
5-year forecast for uranium demand to decelerate due to growth in decommissioning 
Est. prices &lt;US$20/lb U3O8 within the next several years to restore mkt equilibrium
Despite low inventories, non-critical nature of Zn depresses prices
Political pressure increasing against NPI mining in Indonesia and Philippines
Indonesia and Philippines account for ~40% of global Ni supply
Ni consumption predicted to grow at 4.7% CAGR over the next few years

NAC Kazatomprom JSC (KAP LI), Cameco Corp (CCO CN), Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN), Bhp Billiton Ltd (Adr) (BHP US), Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU), Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU), Golden Rim Resources (GMR AU), Focus Minerals (FML AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Jameson Resources (JAL AU), Red 5 Ltd (RED AU), Pacifico Minerals (PMY AU), Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Ausmex Mining Group (AMG AU), Calidus Resources (ASX: CAI), Venturex (ASX: VRX), Saturn Minerals (ASX: STN), Indiana Resources (ASX: IDA), Ora Banda (ASX: OBM) 



New J Hutton – Exploration Report Pt 2 (Weeks Ending 02/08/19)

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<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27844" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27844:1">Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN)</a> is a pure play on the uranium price</li>
<li>Spot Price $28.90/lb U3O8 &amp; L.T. Price remains $32/lb U3O8
</li>
<li>Share price trading at ~2% discount to NPV</li>
<li>Despite recent production cuts, primary &amp; secondary supplies cover world demand</li>
<li>Est. surplus ~500ktU, representing six years of global primary production</li>
<li>Global nuclear generation peaked in 2006</li>
<li>Forecast world uranium demand to decline between 25% and 40% by 2050</li>
<li>
1-year Target Price £1.98-2.02 ps NPV4% assuming $24/lb U3O8
</li>
<li>
3-year Target Price £1.57-1.77 ps NPV4% assuming $21/lb U3O</li>
</ul>



Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN) is a pure play on the uranium price
Spot Price $28.90/lb U3O8 &amp; L.T. Price remains $32/lb U3O8

Share price trading at ~2% discount to NPV
Despite recent production cuts, primary &amp; secondary supplies cover world demand
Est. surplus ~500ktU, representing six years of global primary production
Global nuclear generation peaked in 2006
Forecast world uranium demand to decline between 25% and 40% by 2050

1-year Target Price £1.98-2.02 ps NPV4% assuming $24/lb U3O8


3-year Target Price £1.57-1.77 ps NPV4% assuming $21/lb U3O


Yellow Cake (YCA) - Great Idea, Wrong Time!

Kazakhstan

NAC Kazatomprom JSC produces and markets minerals. The Company specializes in natural uranium production. NAC Kazatomprom also imports and exports uranium compounds, nuclear power plant fuel, and uranium components. NAC Kazatomprom serves customers worldwide.

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NAC Kazatomprom JSC (KAP LI)

Kazatomprom (KAP LI): Revelation Of A Silent Uranium Deal

KAZATOMPROM (KAP LI): News article allege a secret Uranium deal between the Russian and the Kazakh government was the reason behind major...

Mohit Surana

Kazatomprom NAC (KAP LI): Strong Fundamentals and Improving Demand Supply Dynamics.

Kazatomprom: A cheaper way to gain exposure to Uranium mining industry with low probability of a geopolitical risk escalation.

Mohit Surana

New J Hutton – Exploration Report Pt 2 (Weeks Ending 02/08/19)

Our bearish outlook on the nuclear industry could be too optimistic No Chinese nuclear station has commenced construction since 2016 5-year...

Gaius King

Yellow Cake (YCA) - Great Idea, Wrong Time!

Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN) is a pure play on the uranium price Spot Price $28.90/lb U3O8 & L.T. Price remains $32/lb U3O8 Share price trading...

Boost Research

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