Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Latest Nanya Tech results showed weak margin rebound. Gross margin rebounded but remained below zero.</li>
<li>Nanya expects DRAM pricing improvement through 2024E; due to demand for AI related memory products reducing capacity for other DRAM products rather than improvement for Nanya's main Consumer segment.</li>
<li>Micron is reportedly increasing prices post Taiwan earthquake and this is positive, but we see Nanya's 2024E consensus margin expectations set at a high bar and the stock isn't cheap.</li>
</ul>


Latest Nanya Tech results showed weak margin rebound. Gross margin rebounded but remained below zero.
Nanya expects DRAM pricing improvement through 2024E; due to demand for AI related memory products reducing capacity for other DRAM products rather than improvement for Nanya's main Consumer segment.
Micron is reportedly increasing prices post Taiwan earthquake and this is positive, but we see Nanya's 2024E consensus margin expectations set at a high bar and the stock isn't cheap.


Nanya Technology Sees DRAM Industry Pricing Rising Through 2024E; But Is Underperforming Financially

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Nanya’s quarterly revenue was NT$ 9.5 billion, up 9.2% QoQ &amp; up 47.9% YoY</li>
<li>Nanya still had a net loss of NT$1.2 billion, its sixth loss making quarter in a row</li>
<li>Larger peers doubling down on HBM, structural reduction in memory wafer capacity &amp; shortages likely triggered by Taiwan earthquake are all mounting tailwinds for Nanya</li>
</ul>


Nanya’s quarterly revenue was NT$ 9.5 billion, up 9.2% QoQ &amp; up 47.9% YoY
Nanya still had a net loss of NT$1.2 billion, its sixth loss making quarter in a row
Larger peers doubling down on HBM, structural reduction in memory wafer capacity &amp; shortages likely triggered by Taiwan earthquake are all mounting tailwinds for Nanya


Nanya. Tailwinds Mount Albeit Profits Still Elude

<ul>
<li>DRAM producer Nanya Tech will report its 1Q24E results on April 10th.</li>
<li>While Micron has said it is evaluating the impact of the Taiwan earthquake on its operations and has halted price discussions with clients, Nanya could provide latest DRAM outlook color.</li>
<li>Short interest has spiked ahead of Nanya's results; We note that the company has a large revenue and margin rebound it needs to deliver on to meet 2024E consensus.</li>
</ul>


DRAM producer Nanya Tech will report its 1Q24E results on April 10th.
While Micron has said it is evaluating the impact of the Taiwan earthquake on its operations and has halted price discussions with clients, Nanya could provide latest DRAM outlook color.
Short interest has spiked ahead of Nanya's results; We note that the company has a large revenue and margin rebound it needs to deliver on to meet 2024E consensus.


Memory Monitor: Nanya's Results to Provide Latest Color on DRAM Post Earthquake; Short Int Rising

<ul>
<li>Micron shares have soared after the company reported its latest results with forward margin guidance well above consensus expectations.</li>
<li>Micron appears to be successfully leapfrogging into ther HBM memory space, and says that its production for 2024E is sold out and for 2025E is already all 'allocated'.</li>
<li>Taiwan's Nanya Tech has lagged its peers by a wide margin; Nanya lacks HBM products however HBM market demand is driving supply tightness for all DRAM.</li>
</ul>


Micron shares have soared after the company reported its latest results with forward margin guidance well above consensus expectations.
Micron appears to be successfully leapfrogging into ther HBM memory space, and says that its production for 2024E is sold out and for 2025E is already all 'allocated'.
Taiwan's Nanya Tech has lagged its peers by a wide margin; Nanya lacks HBM products however HBM market demand is driving supply tightness for all DRAM.


Memory Monitor: Micron Leapfrogging Into HBM3E for AI; Nanya Lagging Peers But Poised to Benefit

<ul>
<li>Nanya Technology recently reported 3Q22 results and its gross margin fell substantially, but this appears mostly digested into consensus estimates.</li>
<li>The company also announced a major reduction in capex, which highlights the latest industry trend whereby supply/demand imbalances are being addressed by reduced capacity expansion.</li>
<li>Nanya Technology has outperformed the TAIEX Semi Index by ~27% in less than three weeks.</li>
</ul>


Nanya Technology recently reported 3Q22 results and its gross margin fell substantially, but this appears mostly digested into consensus estimates.
The company also announced a major reduction in capex, which highlights the latest industry trend whereby supply/demand imbalances are being addressed by reduced capacity expansion.
Nanya Technology has outperformed the TAIEX Semi Index by ~27% in less than three weeks.


Nanya Tech: Another Example of Capex Reduction, Major Share Price Divergence

Taiwan

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

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Nanya Technology (2408 TT)

Nanya Technology Sees DRAM Industry Pricing Rising Through 2024E; But Is Underperforming Financially

Nanya Tech's gross margin rebound appears to be lagging Memory peers. DRAM pricing is expected to improve through 2024E, but its mostly due to...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nanya. Tailwinds Mount Albeit Profits Still Elude

Q124 revenue NT$ 9.5 billion, +9.2% QoQ & +47.9% YoY. Larger peers focus on HBM, structural reduction in capacity & shortages caused by Taiwan...

William Keating

Memory Monitor: Nanya's Results to Provide Latest Color on DRAM Post Earthquake; Short Int Rising

Nanya Tech to report results -- Potential insight into DRAM outlook amid Micron's earthquake impact evaluation. We note increased short interest....

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: Micron Leapfrogging Into HBM3E for AI; Nanya Lagging Peers But Poised to Benefit

Micron's strong results and forward margin guidance lead to soaring shares, with successful leapfrogging into HBM memory space and high demand...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Nanya Technology Sees DRAM Industry Pricing Rising Through 2024E; But Is Underperforming Financially

​Nanya Tech's gross margin rebound appears to be lagging Memory peers. DRAM pricing is expected to improve through 2024E, but its mostly due to...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nanya. Tailwinds Mount Albeit Profits Still Elude

Q124 revenue NT$ 9.5 billion, +9.2% QoQ & +47.9% YoY. Larger peers focus on HBM, structural reduction in capacity & shortages caused by Taiwan...

William Keating

Memory Monitor: Nanya's Results to Provide Latest Color on DRAM Post Earthquake; Short Int Rising

​Nanya Tech to report results -- Potential insight into DRAM outlook amid Micron's earthquake impact evaluation. We note increased short interest....

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: Micron Leapfrogging Into HBM3E for AI; Nanya Lagging Peers But Poised to Benefit

​Micron's strong results and forward margin guidance lead to soaring shares, with successful leapfrogging into HBM memory space and high demand...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nanya Tech: Another Example of Capex Reduction, Major Share Price Divergence

Announced major reduction in capex is good news as the company is holding back volume expansion and focusing on higher value output.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nanya Tech's gross margin rebound appears to be lagging Memory peers. DRAM pricing is expected to improve through 2024E, but its mostly due to...

Nanya Tech to report results -- Potential insight into DRAM outlook amid Micron's earthquake impact evaluation. We note increased short interest....

Micron's strong results and forward margin guidance lead to soaring shares, with successful leapfrogging into HBM memory space and high demand...