Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nanya Tech Soared in February on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News</li>
<li>Nanya’s Custom HBM Strategy &amp; the Positive DRAM Market Outlook</li>
<li>Memory Monitor Universe: SK Hynix &amp; Micron Still Have Strong FY2025E Expected Growth; Nanya Tech Still Negative</li>
</ul>


Nanya Tech Soared in February on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News
Nanya’s Custom HBM Strategy &amp; the Positive DRAM Market Outlook
Memory Monitor Universe: SK Hynix &amp; Micron Still Have Strong FY2025E Expected Growth; Nanya Tech Still Negative


Memory Monitor: Nanya Tech Soared on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News

<ul>
<li>Memory Market Diverges: AI Demand Continues to Surges While Legacy Segments Struggle in November</li>
<li>Diverging Demand Trends Highlight Market Decoupling -- AI Driving HBM, Server DRAM, QLC NAND Demand</li>
<li>Outlook for the Memory Market -- Decoupling Trade: Long SK Hynix vs. Short Nanya Tech Trade</li>
</ul>


Memory Market Diverges: AI Demand Continues to Surges While Legacy Segments Struggle in November
Diverging Demand Trends Highlight Market Decoupling -- AI Driving HBM, Server DRAM, QLC NAND Demand
Outlook for the Memory Market -- Decoupling Trade: Long SK Hynix vs. Short Nanya Tech Trade


Memory Monitor: Decoupling Trade Long SK Hynix Vs. Short Nanya Tech

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>Microsoft Azure partners with Nvidia to use GB200 AI server chips, staying ahead in cloud innovation.</li><li>Hong Kong's October tech fairs will showcase electronics and lighting innovations from 6,000+ global exhibitors.</li><li>Middle East pager explosions heighten concerns about Western V2X security, while China's advances in silicon photonics may boost AI development.</li></ul>

Microsoft Azure partners with Nvidia to use GB200 AI server chips, staying ahead in cloud innovation.Hong Kong's October tech fairs will showcase electronics and lighting innovations from 6,000+ global exhibitors.Middle East pager explosions heighten concerns about Western V2X security, while China's advances in silicon photonics may boost AI development.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (12-Oct-2024): Azure leads in Nvidia's GB200 AI chips, fueling cloud innovation.

<ul>
<li>Nanya Tech's 3Q24 results missed expecations by a wide margin, coming in with a net loss instead of the consensus expectation for a profit.</li>
<li>Nanya highlighed weakness in non-AI end applications for memory and cut its 2024E Capex guidance by nearly 25%, signaling caution towards the current market cycle.</li>
<li>While the company's new DDR5 capacity ramp-up should support stronger margins into 2025E, Nanya has yet to show a signifcant margin upturn in the cycle. </li>
</ul>


Nanya Tech's 3Q24 results missed expecations by a wide margin, coming in with a net loss instead of the consensus expectation for a profit.
Nanya highlighed weakness in non-AI end applications for memory and cut its 2024E Capex guidance by nearly 25%, signaling caution towards the current market cycle.
While the company's new DDR5 capacity ramp-up should support stronger margins into 2025E, Nanya has yet to show a signifcant margin upturn in the cycle. 


Memory Monitor: Nanya Results Miss; Highlights Weakness in Non-AI Demand

<ul>
<li>Nanya Technology recently reported 3Q22 results and its gross margin fell substantially, but this appears mostly digested into consensus estimates.</li>
<li>The company also announced a major reduction in capex, which highlights the latest industry trend whereby supply/demand imbalances are being addressed by reduced capacity expansion.</li>
<li>Nanya Technology has outperformed the TAIEX Semi Index by ~27% in less than three weeks.</li>
</ul>


Nanya Technology recently reported 3Q22 results and its gross margin fell substantially, but this appears mostly digested into consensus estimates.
The company also announced a major reduction in capex, which highlights the latest industry trend whereby supply/demand imbalances are being addressed by reduced capacity expansion.
Nanya Technology has outperformed the TAIEX Semi Index by ~27% in less than three weeks.


Nanya Tech: Another Example of Capex Reduction, Major Share Price Divergence

Taiwan

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

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Nanya Technology (2408 TT)

Memory Monitor: Nanya Tech Soared on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News

Nanya Tech sees growth in February from DRAM recovery and custom HBM strategy, but still lags behind SK Hynix and Micron in expected growth for 2025.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: Decoupling Trade Long SK Hynix Vs. Short Nanya Tech

AI demand is driving growth in memory market, while legacy segments struggle, creating opportunities for investors to capitalize on decoupling...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (12-Oct-2024): Azure leads in Nvidia's GB200 AI chips, fueling cloud innovation.

Microsoft Azure partners with Nvidia for cloud innovation using GB200 AI server chips, Hong Kong tech fairs to feature 6,000+ exhibitors, Middle...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Memory Monitor: Nanya Results Miss; Highlights Weakness in Non-AI Demand

Nanya Tech's 3Q24 results disappoint with net loss, cuts Capex guidance by 25% due to weak non-AI memory demand, but DDR5 capacity ramp-up may...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Memory Monitor: Nanya Tech Soared on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News

​Nanya Tech sees growth in February from DRAM recovery and custom HBM strategy, but still lags behind SK Hynix and Micron in expected growth for 2025.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: Decoupling Trade Long SK Hynix Vs. Short Nanya Tech

​AI demand is driving growth in memory market, while legacy segments struggle, creating opportunities for investors to capitalize on decoupling...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (12-Oct-2024): Azure leads in Nvidia's GB200 AI chips, fueling cloud innovation.

Microsoft Azure partners with Nvidia for cloud innovation using GB200 AI server chips, Hong Kong tech fairs to feature 6,000+ exhibitors, Middle...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Memory Monitor: Nanya Results Miss; Highlights Weakness in Non-AI Demand

​Nanya Tech's 3Q24 results disappoint with net loss, cuts Capex guidance by 25% due to weak non-AI memory demand, but DDR5 capacity ramp-up may...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nanya Tech: Another Example of Capex Reduction, Major Share Price Divergence

Announced major reduction in capex is good news as the company is holding back volume expansion and focusing on higher value output.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nanya Tech sees growth in February from DRAM recovery and custom HBM strategy, but still lags behind SK Hynix and Micron in expected growth for 2025.

AI demand is driving growth in memory market, while legacy segments struggle, creating opportunities for investors to capitalize on decoupling...

Nanya Tech's 3Q24 results disappoint with net loss, cuts Capex guidance by 25% due to weak non-AI memory demand, but DDR5 capacity ramp-up may...