Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

Nanya Q326 Earnings Review. Has The Cycle Peaked?

NANYA TECHNOLOGY (2408 TW): Initiate with a BUY (TP NT$520)

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nanya delivered +12.2% since initiation — the only positive return in coverage — but at 12.7× FY2027E the stock has now priced in the DDR4 scarcity thesis in full.</li>
<li>DDR4 4Gb contract prices tripled to US$5.40/Gb; the Big Three HBM wafer redirect structurally embeds DRAM scarcity through Q4 2027; the thesis is correct, the price has caught up.</li>
<li>NEUTRAL (downgraded from BULLISH); TP NT$490 (12× FY2027E EPS NT$40.60); at 12.7× spot — above our TP — Nanya offers no margin of safety; sideline, re-enter below NT$450.</li>
</ul>


Nanya delivered +12.2% since initiation — the only positive return in coverage — but at 12.7× FY2027E the stock has now priced in the DDR4 scarcity thesis in full.
DDR4 4Gb contract prices tripled to US$5.40/Gb; the Big Three HBM wafer redirect structurally embeds DRAM scarcity through Q4 2027; the thesis is correct, the price has caught up.
NEUTRAL (downgraded from BULLISH); TP NT$490 (12× FY2027E EPS NT$40.60); at 12.7× spot — above our TP — Nanya offers no margin of safety; sideline, re-enter below NT$450.


Nanya Technology (2408 TW): Investment Thesis Played Out — Sideline for Better Entry