Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

Nanya Technology (2408 TW): Investment Thesis Played Out — Sideline for Better Entry

Nanya Q326 Earnings Review. Has The Cycle Peaked?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Most direct listed beneficiary of HBM diversion scarcity: zero HBM exposure means every wafer Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron converts to HBM permanently tightens Nanya's commodity DDR4 market.</li>
<li>March 2026 strategic placement (Kioxia, SanDisk, Solidigm, Cisco; NT$78.7bn) introduces multi-year LTA revenue visibility for the first time in the company's 30-year history.</li>
<li>BUY, NT$520 PT (5.4x FY2026E BVPS NT$96 on P/B–ROE regression; 12% discount for size/non-HBM); primary risk is CXMT DDR4 flooding — monitor TrendForce monthly.</li>
</ul>


Most direct listed beneficiary of HBM diversion scarcity: zero HBM exposure means every wafer Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron converts to HBM permanently tightens Nanya's commodity DDR4 market.
March 2026 strategic placement (Kioxia, SanDisk, Solidigm, Cisco; NT$78.7bn) introduces multi-year LTA revenue visibility for the first time in the company's 30-year history.
BUY, NT$520 PT (5.4x FY2026E BVPS NT$96 on P/B–ROE regression; 12% discount for size/non-HBM); primary risk is CXMT DDR4 flooding — monitor TrendForce monthly.


NANYA TECHNOLOGY (2408 TW): Initiate with a BUY (TP NT$520)