IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qube-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:958:1" rel="noopener">Qube Holdings (QUB AU)</a> IE considers the Macquarie Asset Management’s scheme offer at A$5.20 to be fair and reasonable, as it falls within its valuation range of A$4.93-5.41.</li>
<li>The key scheme conditions are shareholder approval, FIRB approval, OIO approval, and ACCC approval. Regulatory approvals should be forthcoming, and the scheme vote is low risk.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive. At the last close and for a 28 July payment, the gross/annualised spread of the A$5.1465 offer (A$5.20 less the A$0.053 interim dividend) is 2.7%/10.5%.  </li>
</ul>


The Qube Holdings (QUB AU) IE considers the Macquarie Asset Management’s scheme offer at A$5.20 to be fair and reasonable, as it falls within its valuation range of A$4.93-5.41.
The key scheme conditions are shareholder approval, FIRB approval, OIO approval, and ACCC approval. Regulatory approvals should be forthcoming, and the scheme vote is low risk.
The offer is attractive. At the last close and for a 28 July payment, the gross/annualised spread of the A$5.1465 offer (A$5.20 less the A$0.053 interim dividend) is 2.7%/10.5%.  


Qube Holdings (QUB AU): Scheme Vote on 16 June

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contact-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13136:1" rel="noopener">Contact Energy (CEN NZ)</a> is acquiring <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/manawa-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35969:1" rel="noopener">Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ)</a> for NZ$1.12/share in cash and 0.583 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contact-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13136:1" rel="noopener">Contact Energy</a> shares for each share of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/manawa-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35969:1" rel="noopener">Manawa Energy</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/manawa-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35969:1" rel="noopener">Manawa Energy (MNW NZ)</a> is expected to stop trading after the close on 7 July. There will be passive inflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contact-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13136:1" rel="noopener">Contact Energy (CEN NZ)</a> due to increased index shares.</li>
<li>As a replacement for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/manawa-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35969:1" rel="noopener">Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ)</a>, there will be an ad hoc inclusion to the S&amp;P/NZX 50 Index at the close of 7 July.</li>
</ul>



Contact Energy (CEN NZ) is acquiring Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ) for NZ$1.12/share in cash and 0.583 Contact Energy shares for each share of Manawa Energy.

Manawa Energy (MNW NZ) is expected to stop trading after the close on 7 July. There will be passive inflows for Contact Energy (CEN NZ) due to increased index shares.
As a replacement for Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ), there will be an ad hoc inclusion to the S&amp;P/NZX 50 Index at the close of 7 July.


Contact Energy/Manawa Energy: Index Flows as Deal Nears Completion

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure L / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brookfield-asset-management-lt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23741:1" rel="noopener">Brookfield Asset Management Lt (BAM US)</a> aims to raise around US$278m via selling 23.3% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dalrymple-bay-infrastructure-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41235:1" rel="noopener">Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure L (DBI AU).</a>
</li>
<li>The shares have performed well over the last year or so, with the company having delivered consistent DPU growth.</li>
<li>In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Brookfield Asset Management Lt (BAM US) aims to raise around US$278m via selling 23.3% of Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure L (DBI AU).

The shares have performed well over the last year or so, with the company having delivered consistent DPU growth.
In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Dalrymple Bay Infra Placement - Good Track Record but Might Be Too Chunky

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be one constituent change each for the NZX10 Index and the NZX50 Index/ NZX50 Portfolio Index in March.</li>
<li>The flows are limited but the impacts are huge, and the stocks could move ahead of the announcement of the changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17656:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ)</a> is a potential inclusion to the NZX10 Index, but the inflows will be completely overshadowed by the potential deletion from a global index.</li>
</ul>


There could be one constituent change each for the NZX10 Index and the NZX50 Index/ NZX50 Portfolio Index in March.
The flows are limited but the impacts are huge, and the stocks could move ahead of the announcement of the changes.

A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) is a potential inclusion to the NZX10 Index, but the inflows will be completely overshadowed by the potential deletion from a global index.


S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March

<ul>
<li>Air New Zealand (AIR) was aiming to raise around US$827m (NZ$1.2bn) via a renounceable rights issue. It has now launched a shortfall of around US$153m, at last close.</li>
<li>We have covered the background of the rights and expected shortfall in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/air-new-zealand-rights-and-possible-shortfall-delayed-boarding-but-its-priced-to-fly" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:67651" rel="noopener">Air New Zealand Rights and Possible Shortfall - Delayed Boarding but Its Priced to Fly</a>.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the recent updates and shortfall pricing.</li>
</ul>


Air New Zealand (AIR) was aiming to raise around US$827m (NZ$1.2bn) via a renounceable rights issue. It has now launched a shortfall of around US$153m, at last close.
We have covered the background of the rights and expected shortfall in our earlier note, Air New Zealand Rights and Possible Shortfall - Delayed Boarding but Its Priced to Fly.
In this note, we talk about the recent updates and shortfall pricing.


Air New Zealand Shortfall - Not a Great Take-Up Probably Because of the Large Retail Holding

New Zealand

Napier Port Holdings Limited provides shipping services. The Company offers transportation for cargo and passenger. Napier Port Holdings serves customers in New Zealand.

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Napier Port (NPH NZ)

Qube Holdings (QUB AU): Scheme Vote on 16 June

A day after the scheme vote passed, the ACCC approved the transaction. FIRB and OIO approvals should also be forthcoming. At the last close and for...

Arun George

Contact Energy/Manawa Energy: Index Flows as Deal Nears Completion

Manawa Energy is expected to stop trading after 7 July. There will be an increase in index shares for Contact Energy in global/local indices and...

Brian Freitas

Dalrymple Bay Infra Placement - Good Track Record but Might Be Too Chunky

Brookfield Asset Management Lt (BAM US) aims to raise around US$278m via selling 23.3% of Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure L (DBI AU).

Sumeet Singh

S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March

There could be one change each for the NZX10 and NZX50 indices in March. Flows in the stocks are limited but impact is huge. A2Milk could have huge...

Brian Freitas

Air New Zealand Shortfall - Not a Great Take-Up Probably Because of the Large Retail Holding

Air New Zealand (AIR) was aiming to raise around US$827m (NZ$1.2bn) via a renounceable rights issue. It has now launched a shortfall of around...

Sumeet Singh

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