New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Christmas cheer is in the air as transport markets are finally showing signs of life, particularly those reliant on New Zealand end-demand.</li><li>2026 is shaping up as a year of recovery. Profitability should collectively improve across all modes, as any excess capacity is partially filled by improving demand, pricing behaviour remains rational, and cost control measures will likely linger late into the up-cycle.</li><li>Our preferred cyclical recovery exposure is OUTPERFORM rated Mainfreight (MFT), given earnings growth support from its Australian and European operations.</li></ul>

Christmas cheer is in the air as transport markets are finally showing signs of life, particularly those reliant on New Zealand end-demand.2026 is shaping up as a year of recovery. Profitability should collectively improve across all modes, as any excess capacity is partially filled by improving demand, pricing behaviour remains rational, and cost control measures will likely linger late into the up-cycle.Our preferred cyclical recovery exposure is OUTPERFORM rated Mainfreight (MFT), given earnings growth support from its Australian and European operations.

<ul><li>Transport markets are in mixed health.</li><li>Infrastructure, and in particular, ports, is benefiting from enhanced pricing, while global freight continues to grow on the water and in the air.</li><li>Our preferred exposure in the sector is for the ports—Port of Tauranga (POT) and Napier Port (NPH)—as they both continue to drive returns improvements, led by pricing initiatives.</li></ul>

Transport markets are in mixed health.Infrastructure, and in particular, ports, is benefiting from enhanced pricing, while global freight continues to grow on the water and in the air.Our preferred exposure in the sector is for the ports—Port of Tauranga (POT) and Napier Port (NPH)—as they both continue to drive returns improvements, led by pricing initiatives.

<ul><li>Uncertainty and volatility have resurfaced following the Liberation Day tariffs, impacting transport markets with varied responses.</li><li>Napier Port (NPH) and Port of Tauranga (POT) are preferred sector exposures due to improving port performance and pricing initiatives.</li><li>Air freight rates remain stable, while air passenger travel shows moderated declines, particularly for European inbound visitors.</li></ul>

Uncertainty and volatility have resurfaced following the Liberation Day tariffs, impacting transport markets with varied responses.Napier Port (NPH) and Port of Tauranga (POT) are preferred sector exposures due to improving port performance and pricing initiatives.Air freight rates remain stable, while air passenger travel shows moderated declines, particularly for European inbound visitors.

Transport Trends Not Feeling Much Liberation

<ul><li>Transport, like many sectors, is currently in a state of flux.</li><li>The anticipated cyclical recovery in demand from declining interest rates is being tested by President Trump led tariffs and unfolding trade wars.</li><li>Freight transport is inevitably getting caught up in the crossfire, while passenger transport, particularly air, could be harmed by falling consumer sentiment, especially in North America. </li></ul>

Transport, like many sectors, is currently in a state of flux.The anticipated cyclical recovery in demand from declining interest rates is being tested by President Trump led tariffs and unfolding trade wars.Freight transport is inevitably getting caught up in the crossfire, while passenger transport, particularly air, could be harmed by falling consumer sentiment, especially in North America. 

Transport Trends - Transport to Be Trumped by Tariffs?

<div id="m_-6258969701339594437iubdj"><ul><li>Return on capital across New Zealand's port companies has been under pressure for the past 10+ years; Port of Tauranga (POT) and Napier Port (NPH) included.</li><li>The sector as a whole is not earning anywhere near its cost of capital.</li><li>The returns diminution is exacerbated by asset revaluations for some ports, but even excluding revaluations, industry returns have declined on average. </li></ul></div>

Return on capital across New Zealand's port companies has been under pressure for the past 10+ years; Port of Tauranga (POT) and Napier Port (NPH) included.The sector as a whole is not earning anywhere near its cost of capital.The returns diminution is exacerbated by asset revaluations for some ports, but even excluding revaluations, industry returns have declined on average. 

Transport Sector  - Ports - High Tide Raises Most Ships

New Zealand

Napier Port Holdings Limited provides shipping services. The Company offers transportation for cargo and passenger. Napier Port Holdings serves customers in New Zealand.

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Napier Port (NPH NZ)

Transport Trends Getting Into Gear

Christmas cheer is in the air as transport markets are finally showing signs of life, particularly those reliant on New Zealand end-demand.

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends A Right Old Mix

Infrastructure, and in particular, ports, is benefiting from enhanced pricing, while global freight continues to grow on the water and in the air.

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends Not Feeling Much Liberation

Uncertainty and volatility have resurfaced following the Liberation Day tariffs, impacting transport markets with varied responses.

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - Transport to Be Trumped by Tariffs?

The anticipated cyclical recovery in demand from declining interest rates is being tested by President Trump led tariffs and unfolding trade wars.

Forsyth Barr

Transport Sector - Ports - High Tide Raises Most Ships

Return on capital across New Zealand's port companies has been under pressure for the past 10+ years; Port of Tauranga (POT) and Napier Port (NPH)...

Forsyth Barr

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