New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Listed transport infrastructure players are favoured over transport operators.</li><li>While the former are reliant on the latter for volumes (which are challenged across many modes currently), they have a distinct pricing power advantage.</li><li>Port pricing is supported by: (1) captive markets, and (2) a need to lift industry returns, which are currently below cost of capital across most listed and non-listed ports. </li></ul>

Listed transport infrastructure players are favoured over transport operators.While the former are reliant on the latter for volumes (which are challenged across many modes currently), they have a distinct pricing power advantage.Port pricing is supported by: (1) captive markets, and (2) a need to lift industry returns, which are currently below cost of capital across most listed and non-listed ports. 

Transport Trends -  The Haves and Have Nots

<ul><li>Domestic transport, be it freight or passenger, is currently feeling pretty sorry for itself.</li><li>The depressed economic backdrop at home and stalled recovery of inbound air travel is weighing on the sector’s psyche and financial performance.</li><li>At this stage of the cycle, we tender to look for anything vaguely resembling a green shoot. </li></ul>

Domestic transport, be it freight or passenger, is currently feeling pretty sorry for itself.The depressed economic backdrop at home and stalled recovery of inbound air travel is weighing on the sector’s psyche and financial performance.At this stage of the cycle, we tender to look for anything vaguely resembling a green shoot. 

Transport Trends - Green Shoots Yet to Germinate

<div id="m_7505193840733105993iubdj-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2"><ul><li>The volume backdrop across the wider transport sector is generally challenged by a weak demand environment, though pockets of positive activity are evident.</li><li>The latter most notably on global air and sea freight lanes, where activity is up against a destocking impacted prior year.</li><li>In contrast, the pricing environment is generally favourable for freight, but headwinds persist for passenger transport. </li></ul></div>

The volume backdrop across the wider transport sector is generally challenged by a weak demand environment, though pockets of positive activity are evident.The latter most notably on global air and sea freight lanes, where activity is up against a destocking impacted prior year.In contrast, the pricing environment is generally favourable for freight, but headwinds persist for passenger transport. 

<ul><li>Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years.</li><li>The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight, congested supply chains, and ripples sent across the broader freight sector.</li><li>Just as these trends began to normalise, global economic conditions started to deteriorate, leading to supply chain destocking, and weaker passenger and freight end demand. </li></ul>

Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years.The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight, congested supply chains, and ripples sent across the broader freight sector.Just as these trends began to normalise, global economic conditions started to deteriorate, leading to supply chain destocking, and weaker passenger and freight end demand. 

<ul><li>For the first time in three years we are moving our WACC assumptions down.</li><li>This is driven by a modestly lower (-25 bps) interpolated 10-year interest rate assumption; our proxy for the risk free rate.</li><li>We also incorporate our C&amp;ESG ratings into our WACC assumptions. We do this on an overall neutral basis, with a scale of -25 bps to +25 bps added to the cost of equity. </li></ul>

For the first time in three years we are moving our WACC assumptions down.This is driven by a modestly lower (-25 bps) interpolated 10-year interest rate assumption; our proxy for the risk free rate.We also incorporate our C&amp;ESG ratings into our WACC assumptions. We do this on an overall neutral basis, with a scale of -25 bps to +25 bps added to the cost of equity. 

Equity Strategy - WACC Review; a Lower Rfr and Adding C&ESG

New Zealand

Napier Port Holdings Limited provides shipping services. The Company offers transportation for cargo and passenger. Napier Port Holdings serves customers in New Zealand.

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Napier Port (NPH NZ)

Transport Trends - The Haves and Have Nots

Port pricing is supported by: (1) captive markets, and (2) a need to lift industry returns, which are currently below cost of capital across most...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - Green Shoots Yet to Germinate

The depressed economic backdrop at home and stalled recovery of inbound air travel is weighing on the sector’s psyche and financial performance.

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - Freight Expectations

The volume backdrop across the wider transport sector is generally challenged by a weak demand environment, though pockets of positive activity are...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - A Second Wave

Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years. The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight,...

Forsyth Barr

Equity Strategy - WACC Review; a Lower Rfr and Adding C&ESG

For the first time in three years we are moving our WACC assumptions down. This is driven by a modestly lower (-25 bps) interpolated 10-year...

Forsyth Barr

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