Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Central banks globally are making rate decisions, with the Fed holding steady while Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, and the UK announce their decisions today.</li>
<li>Mexico and Canada are central banks to watch, with Fitch forecasting both economies to enter recession in 2025 due to their high US trade exposure.</li>
<li>The US's global reciprocal tariffs, set to be revealed on April 2, have significant implications for the global economy, with the potential to influence central bank policies worldwide.</li>
</ul>


Central banks globally are making rate decisions, with the Fed holding steady while Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, and the UK announce their decisions today.
Mexico and Canada are central banks to watch, with Fitch forecasting both economies to enter recession in 2025 due to their high US trade exposure.
The US's global reciprocal tariffs, set to be revealed on April 2, have significant implications for the global economy, with the potential to influence central bank policies worldwide.


Central Banks Hold Steady Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>More evidence emerging of a regime change in global markets</li>
<li>What is different this time around from previous bear markets</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
More evidence emerging of a regime change in global markets
What is different this time around from previous bear markets


Overview #19 – Don’t Buy the D@nm Dip!

Equity Derivatives

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Central Bank Focus: Nine Central banks decide on monetary policy next week. Among them the BoJ, the BoE, the SNB, and the Fed.</li>
<li>Earnings Wave: major Hong Kong stocks reporting, including Tencent, Xiaomi, China Mobile, and Meituan.</li>
<li>Triple Witching: Quarterly derivatives expiration hits multiple markets - Australia, Taiwan , and the US - alongside index rebalancing in both Australia and the US.</li>
</ul>


Central Bank Focus: Nine Central banks decide on monetary policy next week. Among them the BoJ, the BoE, the SNB, and the Fed.
Earnings Wave: major Hong Kong stocks reporting, including Tencent, Xiaomi, China Mobile, and Meituan.
Triple Witching: Quarterly derivatives expiration hits multiple markets - Australia, Taiwan , and the US - alongside index rebalancing in both Australia and the US.


Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (March 17-21)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments.</li>
<li>We said don't be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are testing major confluence of support at 5770-5850 and $490-$500, respectively, the first of our potential bottom levels discussed last week.</li>
</ul>


In last week's 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments.
We said don't be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers
The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are testing major confluence of support at 5770-5850 and $490-$500, respectively, the first of our potential bottom levels discussed last week.


S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Initial Support; Russell and Nasdaq With Bullish Breadth Divergences

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Friday’s bizarre scenes in the Oval Office will take some time to digest for all involved counterparties.</li>
<li>I don’t feel in a position to judge either side, but I will use this analysis to assess the ramifications of the event.</li>
<li>As a disclaimer, remember that I am European!Trump’s argument that the U.S. pays too much to the rest of the world is, in many ways, entirely correct—but also quite banal.</li>
</ul>


Friday’s bizarre scenes in the Oval Office will take some time to digest for all involved counterparties.
I don’t feel in a position to judge either side, but I will use this analysis to assess the ramifications of the event.
As a disclaimer, remember that I am European!Trump’s argument that the U.S. pays too much to the rest of the world is, in many ways, entirely correct—but also quite banal.


Steno Signals #187 – Remember August & September 2024? Tariffs are to blame

United States

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)

Central Banks Hold Steady Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

Reminder. China Mobile (941 HK) will release 2024 results tonight at 19:00h (HK time) and announce their dividend. Large volume traded yesterday in...

Gaudenz Schneider

Overview #19 – Don’t Buy the D@nm Dip!

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. How will the incoming bear market in the US impact Asia

Rikki Malik

Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (March 17-21)

Central banks to decide on monetary policy, Hong Kong stocks results, and quarterly derivatives expiration hitting multiple markets.

Gaudenz Schneider

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Initial Support; Russell and Nasdaq With Bullish Breadth Divergences

$SPX and $QQQ $NDX Testing Initial Supports at 5770-5850 and $490-$500; Russell 2000 $IWM and Nasdaq 100 Bullish Breadth Divergences (% above 20-...

Vermilion Research

Steno Signals #187 – Remember August & September 2024? Tariffs are to blame

Friday’s bizarre scenes in the Oval Office will take some time to digest for all involved counterparties. I don’t feel in a position to judge...

Steno Research

Central Banks Hold Steady Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

Reminder. China Mobile (941 HK) will release 2024 results tonight at 19:00h (HK time) and announce their dividend. Large volume traded yesterday in...

Gaudenz Schneider

Overview #19 – Don’t Buy the D@nm Dip!

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. How will the incoming bear market in the US impact Asia

Rikki Malik

Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (March 17-21)

​Central banks to decide on monetary policy, Hong Kong stocks results, and quarterly derivatives expiration hitting multiple markets.

Gaudenz Schneider

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Initial Support; Russell and Nasdaq With Bullish Breadth Divergences

$SPX and $QQQ $NDX Testing Initial Supports at 5770-5850 and $490-$500; Russell 2000 $IWM and Nasdaq 100 Bullish Breadth Divergences (% above 20-...

Vermilion Research

Steno Signals #187 – Remember August & September 2024? Tariffs are to blame

Friday’s bizarre scenes in the Oval Office will take some time to digest for all involved counterparties. I don’t feel in a position to judge...

Steno Research

Central banks to decide on monetary policy, Hong Kong stocks results, and quarterly derivatives expiration hitting multiple markets.