Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>As equity indices take a wobble again the Oil price has remained strong after posting both bullish weekly monthly close to new trend highs</li>
<li>The relationship between Oil &amp; stocks is in question because it is unclear whether a higher Oil price in an already inflationary environment is seen as “good” or “bad” </li>
<li>Even in the case that the S&amp;P 500 holds up and becomes correlated properly to Oil, the charts below suggest it will still underperform</li>
</ul>


As equity indices take a wobble again the Oil price has remained strong after posting both bullish weekly monthly close to new trend highs
The relationship between Oil &amp; stocks is in question because it is unclear whether a higher Oil price in an already inflationary environment is seen as “good” or “bad” 
Even in the case that the S&amp;P 500 holds up and becomes correlated properly to Oil, the charts below suggest it will still underperform


Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Crude's supply-demand fundamentals are supportive but do not justify the price spike to 7-year highs, with Brent above $90.</li>
<li>The stand-off between the West and Russia over Ukraine has injected a progressively bigger fear premium in crude. </li>
<li>Our base case remains a de-escalation of the crisis, which could see Brent crude shedding at least 10% of its current value.</li>
</ul>


Crude's supply-demand fundamentals are supportive but do not justify the price spike to 7-year highs, with Brent above $90.
The stand-off between the West and Russia over Ukraine has injected a progressively bigger fear premium in crude. 
Our base case remains a de-escalation of the crisis, which could see Brent crude shedding at least 10% of its current value.


Oil Macros: Brent Could Shed 10% Fear Premium if Ukraine Crisis Defused

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Call for a capitulation SPX low near January 24/25 to set in motion a reaction rise in February. Risk of a final downside re test does exist in early Feb.</li>
<li>RSI key lows are compelling for a more bullish drive into early March. Wide range swings typically set up cycle troughs.</li>
<li>DJI displays the best base support with relative strength while the NDX faces yield headwinds and stall bull overhead sell pressure. <strong>US Macro is bearish in Q2.</strong>
</li>
</ul>


Call for a capitulation SPX low near January 24/25 to set in motion a reaction rise in February. Risk of a final downside re test does exist in early Feb.
RSI key lows are compelling for a more bullish drive into early March. Wide range swings typically set up cycle troughs.
DJI displays the best base support with relative strength while the NDX faces yield headwinds and stall bull overhead sell pressure. US Macro is bearish in Q2.



US Capitulation Low in Place with Re Test Risk near Feb 4-6

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>NDX break below trendline and price support at 15,300 did open Pandora's box and was touted as a key risk driver for a global sell off into late January.</li>
<li>NDX 14,300/100 low zone to kick off a recovery rise in February. We prefer the DJI near 34k and SPX near 4,350. Late January cycle low timeline in focus.</li>
<li>NDX underside of broken trendline at 15,500 is the level to re take to mend the technical damage - a tall order at this stage.</li>
</ul>


NDX break below trendline and price support at 15,300 did open Pandora's box and was touted as a key risk driver for a global sell off into late January.
NDX 14,300/100 low zone to kick off a recovery rise in February. We prefer the DJI near 34k and SPX near 4,350. Late January cycle low timeline in focus.
NDX underside of broken trendline at 15,500 is the level to re take to mend the technical damage - a tall order at this stage.


NDX Low Due This Week - 15,500 the Level to Mend the Damage

House of Market Insights, Market Radar

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

Quick Market Updates

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The year is just started but 2022 has not been good so far for U.S. stocks. The S&amp;P 500, and especially the Nasdaq, are negative YTD, and among the worst indices on a global basis</li>
<li>Indeed the value rotation is still in place, and the performance gap between value and growth stocks is widening</li>
<li>I think that the current interest rate increase could be close to the peak</li>
</ul>


The year is just started but 2022 has not been good so far for U.S. stocks. The S&amp;P 500, and especially the Nasdaq, are negative YTD, and among the worst indices on a global basis
Indeed the value rotation is still in place, and the performance gap between value and growth stocks is widening
I think that the current interest rate increase could be close to the peak


United States

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)

Long-Short Trades: Oil Versus Stocks

Despite the volatility in equity markets, the Oil price remains in a strong uptrend as is break higher. The relationship is questionable in this...

Shyam Devani

Oil Macros: Brent Could Shed 10% Fear Premium if Ukraine Crisis Defused

The Ukraine fear premium in crude is now substantial, with Brent hitting a 7-year peak above $90. Our base case remains a de-escalation of the...

Vandana Hari

US Capitulation Low in Place with Re Test Risk near Feb 4-6

Call for a capitulation SPX low near January 24/25 to set in motion a reaction rise in February. Risk of a final downside re test does exist in...

Thomas Schroeder

NDX Low Due This Week - 15,500 the Level to Mend the Damage

NDX 14,300/100 low zone to kick off a recovery rise in February. We prefer the DJI near 34k and SPX near 4,350. Late January cycle low timeline in...

Thomas Schroeder

2022: False start for U.S. equities

The year is just started but 2022 has not been good so far for U.S. stocks. The S&P 500, and especially the Nasdaq, are negative YTD, and among the...

Market Radar