External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Q1FY26 earnings season was marked with interesting events such as 1) Geopolitical tension, 2) Volatility in Crude Prices, 3) Interest rate cuts, 4) Unseasonal Rainfall, 5) Supply chain disruptions, and 6) Improving liquidity.</li><li>These developments indicate Q1FY26 earnings season is expected to exhibit a mix trend, similar to the patterns observed in previous quarters.</li><li>Some breather is expected in Q1FY26 on account of sequential improvement in some of the pockets of high-frequency indicators. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Q1FY26 earnings season was marked with interesting events such as 1) Geopolitical tension, 2) Volatility in Crude Prices, 3) Interest rate cuts, 4) Unseasonal Rainfall, 5) Supply chain disruptions, and 6) Improving liquidity.These developments indicate Q1FY26 earnings season is expected to exhibit a mix trend, similar to the patterns observed in previous quarters.Some breather is expected in Q1FY26 on account of sequential improvement in some of the pockets of high-frequency indicators. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>In Q1FY26, we foresee divergence in EBITDA margin trends for Steel and Non-Ferrous companies.</li><li>While Steel companies' EBITDA margins are expected to expand QoQ, Non-ferrous stocks are likely to witness QoQ margin contraction over the strong base of Q4FY25.</li><li>For the Steel companies under our coverage (Tata Steel and SAIL), we expect EBITDA to improve QoQ mainly due to lower coking coal consumption costs and higher sales price realsiations (led by improvement in HRC prices which got support from the safeguard duty), partially offset by a drop in steel sales volumes QoQ over a seasonally strong Q4FY25. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In Q1FY26, we foresee divergence in EBITDA margin trends for Steel and Non-Ferrous companies.While Steel companies' EBITDA margins are expected to expand QoQ, Non-ferrous stocks are likely to witness QoQ margin contraction over the strong base of Q4FY25.For the Steel companies under our coverage (Tata Steel and SAIL), we expect EBITDA to improve QoQ mainly due to lower coking coal consumption costs and higher sales price realsiations (led by improvement in HRC prices which got support from the safeguard duty), partially offset by a drop in steel sales volumes QoQ over a seasonally strong Q4FY25. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q1FY26 Earnings Preview - Metals & Mining

<ul><li>Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's impacted profitability.</li><li>Consolidated Revenue stood at Rs 64,890 Cr (up 16%/11% YoY/QoQ), which was 2% ahead of our estimate.</li><li>EBITDA stood at Rs 9,609 Cr (up 41%/26% YoY/QoQ), a 9% beat vs. our estimate, led by strong aluminium performance.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's impacted profitability.Consolidated Revenue stood at Rs 64,890 Cr (up 16%/11% YoY/QoQ), which was 2% ahead of our estimate.EBITDA stood at Rs 9,609 Cr (up 41%/26% YoY/QoQ), a 9% beat vs. our estimate, led by strong aluminium performance.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Top Conviction Ideas - “Metals & Mining” - Sequential Recovery in EBITDA in Q4FY25

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Overall beat: NALCO’s consolidated EBITDA grew by 291%/66% YoY/QoQ to Rs 1,549 Cr, a 36% beat vs. consensus, led by strong performance at both the Alumina and Aluminium divisions. </li><li>Chemicals (Alumina) business’ EBIT jumped up by 5x/19x YoY/QoQ to Rs 595 Cr (35% EBIT margin vs. 9%/4% in Q2FY24/Q1FY25) led by a surge in Alumina prices (up 51%/18% YoY/QoQ).</li><li>The growth could have also led to higher Alumina sales in the quarter. Q1FY25 Alumina sales was impacted by logistical issues.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Overall beat: NALCO’s consolidated EBITDA grew by 291%/66% YoY/QoQ to Rs 1,549 Cr, a 36% beat vs. consensus, led by strong performance at both the Alumina and Aluminium divisions. Chemicals (Alumina) business’ EBIT jumped up by 5x/19x YoY/QoQ to Rs 595 Cr (35% EBIT margin vs. 9%/4% in Q2FY24/Q1FY25) led by a surge in Alumina prices (up 51%/18% YoY/QoQ).The growth could have also led to higher Alumina sales in the quarter. Q1FY25 Alumina sales was impacted by logistical issues.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

National Aluminium Company Ltd - Robust Q2; Alumina Long Position to Drive Growth

<ul><li>Nalco’s consolidated EBITDA grew by 57% YoY to Rs 934 Cr, on the lower base of Q1FY24 which was impacted by higher power and RM costs last year.</li><li>EBITDA degrew by 16% QoQ and missed our/consensus estimate by 22%/18% respectively, despite LME Aluminium prices rising by 15% QoQ (up 11% YoY) to $2,525/t and coal prices remaining soft in the quarter.</li><li>This was due to lower revenue from the Chemical segment.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nalco’s consolidated EBITDA grew by 57% YoY to Rs 934 Cr, on the lower base of Q1FY24 which was impacted by higher power and RM costs last year.EBITDA degrew by 16% QoQ and missed our/consensus estimate by 22%/18% respectively, despite LME Aluminium prices rising by 15% QoQ (up 11% YoY) to $2,525/t and coal prices remaining soft in the quarter.This was due to lower revenue from the Chemical segment.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nalco - Overall Miss Led by Weakness in the Chemical Segment

India

National Aluminium Co. Ltd. is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines for bauxite, refines bauxite into aluminum and manufactures and sells aluminum and aluminum products. National Aluminium Company's products include bauxite, aluminum hydrate, calcined aluminum, aluminum ingots and aluminum wire rods, as well as electricity which is generated for captive consumption.

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National Aluminium (NACL IN)

Q1FY26 - Consolidated Earnings Preview

Some breather is expected in Q1FY26 on account of sequential improvement in some of the pockets of high-frequency indicators.

Axis Direct

Q1FY26 Earnings Preview - Metals & Mining

While Steel companies' EBITDA margins are expected to expand QoQ, Non-ferrous stocks are likely to witness QoQ margin contraction over the strong...

Axis Direct

Top Conviction Ideas - “Metals & Mining” - Sequential Recovery in EBITDA in Q4FY25

Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's impacted profitability. Consolidated Revenue stood at Rs 64,890 Cr (up 16%/11% YoY...

Axis Direct

National Aluminium Company Ltd - Robust Q2; Alumina Long Position to Drive Growth

Overall beat: NALCO’s consolidated EBITDA grew by 291%/66% YoY/QoQ to Rs 1,549 Cr, a 36% beat vs. consensus, led by strong performance at both the...

Axis Direct

Nalco - Overall Miss Led by Weakness in the Chemical Segment

Nalco’s consolidated EBITDA grew by 57% YoY to Rs 934 Cr, on the lower base of Q1FY24 which was impacted by higher power and RM costs last year.

Axis Direct

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