Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ESG Premium Anchored: 100% hydro power + FTSE4Good inclusion support Press Metal’s 12× EV/EBITDA multiple, in line with Norsk Hydro.</li>
<li>Commodity Torque: Earnings highly leveraged to LME aluminium (~RM0.2 bn EBITDA shift per US$100/t); current base case assumes US$2,650/t.</li>
<li>Valuation Balance: SoTP fair value MYR 6.5–6.9/share (~10–15% upside); without ESG uplift, fair value reverts to ~MYR 5.0–5.2/share.</li>
</ul>


ESG Premium Anchored: 100% hydro power + FTSE4Good inclusion support Press Metal’s 12× EV/EBITDA multiple, in line with Norsk Hydro.
Commodity Torque: Earnings highly leveraged to LME aluminium (~RM0.2 bn EBITDA shift per US$100/t); current base case assumes US$2,650/t.
Valuation Balance: SoTP fair value MYR 6.5–6.9/share (~10–15% upside); without ESG uplift, fair value reverts to ~MYR 5.0–5.2/share.


Press Metal: ESG Premium Vs. Aluminium Price Torque

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Dr Agarwal's Health Care Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-agarwal-s-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43984:1" rel="noopener">Dr Agarwal's Health Care Ltd (8140044Z IN)</a> raised around US$350m in its India IPO in Jan 2025. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>Dr Agarwal’s Health Care is a healthcare/hospital chain in India providing eyecare services, including surgeries; consultations, diagnoses, non-surgical treatments; and sells opticals, contact lens, accessories and eyecare related pharmaceutical products.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Dr Agarwal's Health Care Ltd (8140044Z IN) raised around US$350m in its India IPO in Jan 2025. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Dr Agarwal’s Health Care is a healthcare/hospital chain in India providing eyecare services, including surgeries; consultations, diagnoses, non-surgical treatments; and sells opticals, contact lens, accessories and eyecare related pharmaceutical products.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Dr Agarwal’s Health Care IPO Lockup - US$725m Lockup Release; PE Investors May Look to Cash Out

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>A foreign short seller has released its short thesis note on Vedanta Group, labelling the group as a Ponzi scheme. </li>
<li>The report’s central assertion is ‘to repay the debt of holding company Vedanta Resources, Vedanta Limited paid aggressive dividends leading to depletion of financial &amp; operational strength of Vedanta</li>
<li>Dividend &amp; delisting along with share purchases funded through debt, unreconciled interest, and depleting asset base, stagnancy in expansion plans.</li>
</ul>


A foreign short seller has released its short thesis note on Vedanta Group, labelling the group as a Ponzi scheme. 
The report’s central assertion is ‘to repay the debt of holding company Vedanta Resources, Vedanta Limited paid aggressive dividends leading to depletion of financial &amp; operational strength of Vedanta
Dividend &amp; delisting along with share purchases funded through debt, unreconciled interest, and depleting asset base, stagnancy in expansion plans.


Is Vedanta Running a Ponzi Scheme? Deep Dive into Findings of Shortseller Report

Partner at Exencial Research, Exencial Research

Viral Kishorchandra Shah

Partner at Exencial Research

Exencial Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Record Rs47.8B investments in 2025-26, marking the highest project completions in a decade, driven by surging demand for aluminium products.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a>  dominates with Rs37.6B Hirakud project, accounting for 79% of 2025-26 investments, boosting flat-rolled product capacity by 170k tonnes/year.</li>
<li>
25 new projects announced in 2024-25, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> ’s Rs409.9B smelter, signalling robust growth in downstream and recycled aluminium sectors.</li>
</ul>



Record Rs47.8B investments in 2025-26, marking the highest project completions in a decade, driven by surging demand for aluminium products.

Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)  dominates with Rs37.6B Hirakud project, accounting for 79% of 2025-26 investments, boosting flat-rolled product capacity by 170k tonnes/year.

25 new projects announced in 2024-25, including Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) ’s Rs409.9B smelter, signalling robust growth in downstream and recycled aluminium sectors.


The Aluminium Revolution: Four Major Projects Set to Transform India's Metal Landscape

<ul>
<li>Rio’s Entry: Rio Tinto plans a $5–7B green aluminium project in India with AMG M&amp;M, targeting 1 Mtpa smelting and 2 Mtpa refining powered by renewables.</li>
<li>Why India: Aluminium demand is rising; India offers bauxite, coal, caustic, and strong domestic growth—ideal for scaling low-carbon aluminium production.</li>
<li>Risks &amp; Signals: Land issues remain a risk, but ArcelorMittal’s success shows improved project viability; Rio bets on aluminium’s green future and circular economy edge.</li>
</ul>


Rio’s Entry: Rio Tinto plans a $5–7B green aluminium project in India with AMG M&amp;M, targeting 1 Mtpa smelting and 2 Mtpa refining powered by renewables.
Why India: Aluminium demand is rising; India offers bauxite, coal, caustic, and strong domestic growth—ideal for scaling low-carbon aluminium production.
Risks &amp; Signals: Land issues remain a risk, but ArcelorMittal’s success shows improved project viability; Rio bets on aluminium’s green future and circular economy edge.


Rio Tinto’s Green Aluminium Bet on India: A Strategic Pivot Amid Global Decarbonization

India

National Aluminium Co. Ltd. is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines for bauxite, refines bauxite into aluminum and manufactures and sells aluminum and aluminum products. National Aluminium Company's products include bauxite, aluminum hydrate, calcined aluminum, aluminum ingots and aluminum wire rods, as well as electricity which is generated for captive consumption.

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National Aluminium (NACL IN)

Press Metal: ESG Premium Vs. Aluminium Price Torque

Press Metal's ESG focus and inclusion in FTSE4Good drive valuation, with potential upside based on commodity prices and sustainability factors.

Rahul Jain

Dr Agarwal’s Health Care IPO Lockup - US$725m Lockup Release; PE Investors May Look to Cash Out

Dr Agarwal’s Health Care (DAH) raised around US$350m in its India IPO in Jan 2025. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Akshat Shah

Is Vedanta Running a Ponzi Scheme? Deep Dive into Findings of Shortseller Report

Foreign short seller accuses Vedanta Group of being a Ponzi scheme, citing aggressive dividends, debt-funded activities, and stagnancy in...

Nimish Maheshwari

The Aluminium Revolution: Four Major Projects Set to Transform India's Metal Landscape

Record investments in 2025-26 driven by demand for aluminium products, Hindalco Industries leads with Hirakud project, 25 new projects announced...

Viral Kishorchandra Shah

Rio Tinto’s Green Aluminium Bet on India: A Strategic Pivot Amid Global Decarbonization

Rio Tinto plans $5-7B green aluminium project in India with AMG M&M, leveraging local resources and renewables for low-carbon production.

Rahul Jain

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Press Metal: ESG Premium Vs. Aluminium Price Torque

​Press Metal's ESG focus and inclusion in FTSE4Good drive valuation, with potential upside based on commodity prices and sustainability factors.

Rahul Jain

Dr Agarwal’s Health Care IPO Lockup - US$725m Lockup Release; PE Investors May Look to Cash Out

Dr Agarwal’s Health Care (DAH) raised around US$350m in its India IPO in Jan 2025. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Akshat Shah

Is Vedanta Running a Ponzi Scheme? Deep Dive into Findings of Shortseller Report

​Foreign short seller accuses Vedanta Group of being a Ponzi scheme, citing aggressive dividends, debt-funded activities, and stagnancy in...

Nimish Maheshwari

The Aluminium Revolution: Four Major Projects Set to Transform India's Metal Landscape

​Record investments in 2025-26 driven by demand for aluminium products, Hindalco Industries leads with Hirakud project, 25 new projects announced...

Viral Kishorchandra Shah

Rio Tinto’s Green Aluminium Bet on India: A Strategic Pivot Amid Global Decarbonization

​Rio Tinto plans $5-7B green aluminium project in India with AMG M&M, leveraging local resources and renewables for low-carbon production.

Rahul Jain

Press Metal's ESG focus and inclusion in FTSE4Good drive valuation, with potential upside based on commodity prices and sustainability factors.

Foreign short seller accuses Vedanta Group of being a Ponzi scheme, citing aggressive dividends, debt-funded activities, and stagnancy in...

Record investments in 2025-26 driven by demand for aluminium products, Hindalco Industries leads with Hirakud project, 25 new projects announced...

Rio Tinto plans $5-7B green aluminium project in India with AMG M&M, leveraging local resources and renewables for low-carbon production.