Partner at Exencial Research, Exencial Research

Viral Kishorchandra Shah

Partner at Exencial Research

Exencial Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Record Rs47.8B investments in 2025-26, marking the highest project completions in a decade, driven by surging demand for aluminium products.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a>  dominates with Rs37.6B Hirakud project, accounting for 79% of 2025-26 investments, boosting flat-rolled product capacity by 170k tonnes/year.</li>
<li>
25 new projects announced in 2024-25, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> ’s Rs409.9B smelter, signalling robust growth in downstream and recycled aluminium sectors.</li>
</ul>



Record Rs47.8B investments in 2025-26, marking the highest project completions in a decade, driven by surging demand for aluminium products.

Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)  dominates with Rs37.6B Hirakud project, accounting for 79% of 2025-26 investments, boosting flat-rolled product capacity by 170k tonnes/year.

25 new projects announced in 2024-25, including Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) ’s Rs409.9B smelter, signalling robust growth in downstream and recycled aluminium sectors.


The Aluminium Revolution: Four Major Projects Set to Transform India's Metal Landscape

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>Rio’s Entry: Rio Tinto plans a $5–7B green aluminium project in India with AMG M&amp;M, targeting 1 Mtpa smelting and 2 Mtpa refining powered by renewables.</li>
<li>Why India: Aluminium demand is rising; India offers bauxite, coal, caustic, and strong domestic growth—ideal for scaling low-carbon aluminium production.</li>
<li>Risks &amp; Signals: Land issues remain a risk, but ArcelorMittal’s success shows improved project viability; Rio bets on aluminium’s green future and circular economy edge.</li>
</ul>


Rio’s Entry: Rio Tinto plans a $5–7B green aluminium project in India with AMG M&amp;M, targeting 1 Mtpa smelting and 2 Mtpa refining powered by renewables.
Why India: Aluminium demand is rising; India offers bauxite, coal, caustic, and strong domestic growth—ideal for scaling low-carbon aluminium production.
Risks &amp; Signals: Land issues remain a risk, but ArcelorMittal’s success shows improved project viability; Rio bets on aluminium’s green future and circular economy edge.


Rio Tinto’s Green Aluminium Bet on India: A Strategic Pivot Amid Global Decarbonization

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX</li>
<li>Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.</li>
<li>In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months</li>
</ul>


Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX
Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.
In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months


U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. </li>
<li>Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).</li>
<li>Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. 
Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).
Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials


MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Norsk Hydro cut Alunorte's alumina output to 50% on a gas shortage, sending LME aluminium to a seven-week high and NALCO, Hindalco surging</li>
<li>Alunorte supplies roughly 3% of world alumina; even a temporary cut tightens a market that was otherwise projected to stay in surplus through 2026 and 2027.</li>
<li>The move rewards NALCO's alumina leverage more than Hindalco's integrated model, but the trade's shelf life depends on Brazil's gas resupply timeline.</li>
</ul>


Norsk Hydro cut Alunorte's alumina output to 50% on a gas shortage, sending LME aluminium to a seven-week high and NALCO, Hindalco surging
Alunorte supplies roughly 3% of world alumina; even a temporary cut tightens a market that was otherwise projected to stay in surplus through 2026 and 2027.
The move rewards NALCO's alumina leverage more than Hindalco's integrated model, but the trade's shelf life depends on Brazil's gas resupply timeline.


How Alunorte's Supply Cut Creates Opportunity for Indian Aluminum Producer NALCO and Hindalco?

India

National Aluminium Co. Ltd. is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines for bauxite, refines bauxite into aluminum and manufactures and sells aluminum and aluminum products. National Aluminium Company's products include bauxite, aluminum hydrate, calcined aluminum, aluminum ingots and aluminum wire rods, as well as electricity which is generated for captive consumption.

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National Aluminium (NACL IN)

The Aluminium Revolution: Four Major Projects Set to Transform India's Metal Landscape

Record investments in 2025-26 driven by demand for aluminium products, Hindalco Industries leads with Hirakud project, 25 new projects announced...

Viral Kishorchandra Shah

Rio Tinto’s Green Aluminium Bet on India: A Strategic Pivot Amid Global Decarbonization

Rio Tinto plans $5-7B green aluminium project in India with AMG M&M, leveraging local resources and renewables for low-carbon production.

Rahul Jain

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives. Actionable Themes: Real Estate, Utilities, Telecommunications, Energy,...

Vermilion Research

MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

MSCI EM Index $EEM Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE $EFA. Top EM Country Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors:...

Vermilion Research

How Alunorte's Supply Cut Creates Opportunity for Indian Aluminum Producer NALCO and Hindalco?

Norsk Hydro's cut in Alunorte's alumina output boosts LME aluminium prices, benefiting NALCO more than Hindalco, as market tightens due to gas...

Nimish Maheshwari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Aluminium Revolution: Four Major Projects Set to Transform India's Metal Landscape

​Record investments in 2025-26 driven by demand for aluminium products, Hindalco Industries leads with Hirakud project, 25 new projects announced...

Viral Kishorchandra Shah

Rio Tinto’s Green Aluminium Bet on India: A Strategic Pivot Amid Global Decarbonization

​Rio Tinto plans $5-7B green aluminium project in India with AMG M&M, leveraging local resources and renewables for low-carbon production.

Rahul Jain

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives. Actionable Themes: Real Estate, Utilities, Telecommunications, Energy,...

Vermilion Research

MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

MSCI EM Index $EEM Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE $EFA. Top EM Country Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors:...

Vermilion Research

How Alunorte's Supply Cut Creates Opportunity for Indian Aluminum Producer NALCO and Hindalco?

​Norsk Hydro's cut in Alunorte's alumina output boosts LME aluminium prices, benefiting NALCO more than Hindalco, as market tightens due to gas...

Nimish Maheshwari

Record investments in 2025-26 driven by demand for aluminium products, Hindalco Industries leads with Hirakud project, 25 new projects announced...

Rio Tinto plans $5-7B green aluminium project in India with AMG M&M, leveraging local resources and renewables for low-carbon production.

Norsk Hydro's cut in Alunorte's alumina output boosts LME aluminium prices, benefiting NALCO more than Hindalco, as market tightens due to gas...