External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Q1FY26 earnings season was marked with interesting events such as 1) Geopolitical tension, 2) Volatility in Crude Prices, 3) Interest rate cuts, 4) Unseasonal Rainfall, 5) Supply chain disruptions, and 6) Improving liquidity.</li><li>These developments indicate Q1FY26 earnings season is expected to exhibit a mix trend, similar to the patterns observed in previous quarters.</li><li>Some breather is expected in Q1FY26 on account of sequential improvement in some of the pockets of high-frequency indicators. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Q1FY26 earnings season was marked with interesting events such as 1) Geopolitical tension, 2) Volatility in Crude Prices, 3) Interest rate cuts, 4) Unseasonal Rainfall, 5) Supply chain disruptions, and 6) Improving liquidity.These developments indicate Q1FY26 earnings season is expected to exhibit a mix trend, similar to the patterns observed in previous quarters.Some breather is expected in Q1FY26 on account of sequential improvement in some of the pockets of high-frequency indicators. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>In Q1FY26, we foresee divergence in EBITDA margin trends for Steel and Non-Ferrous companies.</li><li>While Steel companies' EBITDA margins are expected to expand QoQ, Non-ferrous stocks are likely to witness QoQ margin contraction over the strong base of Q4FY25.</li><li>For the Steel companies under our coverage (Tata Steel and SAIL), we expect EBITDA to improve QoQ mainly due to lower coking coal consumption costs and higher sales price realsiations (led by improvement in HRC prices which got support from the safeguard duty), partially offset by a drop in steel sales volumes QoQ over a seasonally strong Q4FY25. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In Q1FY26, we foresee divergence in EBITDA margin trends for Steel and Non-Ferrous companies.While Steel companies' EBITDA margins are expected to expand QoQ, Non-ferrous stocks are likely to witness QoQ margin contraction over the strong base of Q4FY25.For the Steel companies under our coverage (Tata Steel and SAIL), we expect EBITDA to improve QoQ mainly due to lower coking coal consumption costs and higher sales price realsiations (led by improvement in HRC prices which got support from the safeguard duty), partially offset by a drop in steel sales volumes QoQ over a seasonally strong Q4FY25. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q1FY26 Earnings Preview - Metals & Mining

<ul><li>Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's impacted profitability.</li><li>Consolidated Revenue stood at Rs 64,890 Cr (up 16%/11% YoY/QoQ), which was 2% ahead of our estimate.</li><li>EBITDA stood at Rs 9,609 Cr (up 41%/26% YoY/QoQ), a 9% beat vs. our estimate, led by strong aluminium performance.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's impacted profitability.Consolidated Revenue stood at Rs 64,890 Cr (up 16%/11% YoY/QoQ), which was 2% ahead of our estimate.EBITDA stood at Rs 9,609 Cr (up 41%/26% YoY/QoQ), a 9% beat vs. our estimate, led by strong aluminium performance.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Top Conviction Ideas - “Metals & Mining” - Sequential Recovery in EBITDA in Q4FY25

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>EBITDA in line with our estimate: NALCO’s consolidated EBITDA at Rs 1,492 Cr (up 60%, but down 46% QoQ) stood in line with our estimate (19% miss against consensus).</li><li>The QoQ drop in EBITDA was expected as both LME Aluminium and Alumina prices and sales volume moderated over the strong base of Q4FY25.</li><li>Although Alumina and Aluminium prices were down by 16%/3% YoY in Q1FY26, EBITDA grew by 60% YoY, mainly due to higher Alumina sales volume at 304 kt (up 204% YoY). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

EBITDA in line with our estimate: NALCO’s consolidated EBITDA at Rs 1,492 Cr (up 60%, but down 46% QoQ) stood in line with our estimate (19% miss against consensus).The QoQ drop in EBITDA was expected as both LME Aluminium and Alumina prices and sales volume moderated over the strong base of Q4FY25.Although Alumina and Aluminium prices were down by 16%/3% YoY in Q1FY26, EBITDA grew by 60% YoY, mainly due to higher Alumina sales volume at 304 kt (up 204% YoY). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

National Aluminium Co Ltd (NALCO) - Largely Inline Q1...

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Emkay Global Financial Services Limited

Emkay

Emkay Global Financial Services Limited

Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. is a leader in the financial services sector, actively creating wealth for our clients for over two decades. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Nalco posted a solid quarterly performance given EBITDA of Rs23.3bn (+21.1% vs Consensus; +26.1% vs Emkay; +50.3% QoQ), with the earnings beat led by higher alumina export volumes, while benefitting from elevated alumina prices.</li><li>We note that progress on the alumina refinery project has slowed, with the company delaying it by three months.</li><li>While we did not build in any volume growth for FY26 to allow for any delays/teething issues, our sense is that the delay could be seen as slightly negative by the market.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nalco posted a solid quarterly performance given EBITDA of Rs23.3bn (+21.1% vs Consensus; +26.1% vs Emkay; +50.3% QoQ), with the earnings beat led by higher alumina export volumes, while benefitting from elevated alumina prices.We note that progress on the alumina refinery project has slowed, with the company delaying it by three months.While we did not build in any volume growth for FY26 to allow for any delays/teething issues, our sense is that the delay could be seen as slightly negative by the market.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

National Aluminium Co - Strong Q3 Print; Reiterate BUY

India

National Aluminium Co. Ltd. is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines for bauxite, refines bauxite into aluminum and manufactures and sells aluminum and aluminum products. National Aluminium Company's products include bauxite, aluminum hydrate, calcined aluminum, aluminum ingots and aluminum wire rods, as well as electricity which is generated for captive consumption.

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National Aluminium (NACL IN)

Q1FY26 - Consolidated Earnings Preview

Some breather is expected in Q1FY26 on account of sequential improvement in some of the pockets of high-frequency indicators.

Axis Direct

Q1FY26 Earnings Preview - Metals & Mining

While Steel companies' EBITDA margins are expected to expand QoQ, Non-ferrous stocks are likely to witness QoQ margin contraction over the strong...

Axis Direct

Top Conviction Ideas - “Metals & Mining” - Sequential Recovery in EBITDA in Q4FY25

Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's impacted profitability. Consolidated Revenue stood at Rs 64,890 Cr (up 16%/11% YoY...

Axis Direct

National Aluminium Co Ltd (NALCO) - Largely Inline Q1...

EBITDA in line with our estimate: NALCO’s consolidated EBITDA at Rs 1,492 Cr (up 60%, but down 46% QoQ) stood in line with our estimate (19% miss...

Axis Direct

National Aluminium Co - Strong Q3 Print; Reiterate BUY

Nalco posted a solid quarterly performance given EBITDA of Rs23.3bn (+21.1% vs Consensus; +26.1% vs Emkay; +50.3% QoQ), with the earnings beat led...

Emkay

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