Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Bank Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-it-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36059:1" rel="noopener">Nifty IT Index</a>, Nifty Midcap 150 Index, Nifty100 Low Volatility30 Index and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpse-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28191:1" rel="noopener">CPSE ETF</a> rebalance at the close today.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade across the indices is US$2.6bn and there are 26 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Stocks with the largest impact are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-petroleum-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10222:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Petroleum</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-total-gas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28352:1" rel="noopener">Adani Total Gas</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-hotels-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5774:1" rel="noopener">Indian Hotels</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jio-financial-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40042:1" rel="noopener">Jio Financial</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-railway-catering-and-tourism-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33951:1" rel="noopener">IRCTC</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/federal-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11784:1" rel="noopener">Federal Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/union-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:546:1" rel="noopener">Union Bank Of India</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crompton-greaves-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6248:1" rel="noopener">Crompton Greaves</a>.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index, Nifty Next 50 Index, Nifty Bank Index, Nifty IT Index, Nifty Midcap 150 Index, Nifty100 Low Volatility30 Index and the CPSE ETF rebalance at the close today.
The round-trip trade across the indices is US$2.6bn and there are 26 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
Stocks with the largest impact are Britannia Industries, Bharat Petroleum, Adani Total Gas, Indian Hotels, Jio Financial, IRCTC, Zomato, Federal Bank, Union Bank Of India and Crompton Greaves.


NIFTY Indices: Flows (Post Capping) At the Close Today; Round-Trip US$2.6bn

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NACL posted its best ever quarterly performance in 3QFY25, driven by a sharp spike in alumina prices. Alumina prices have since cooled off but remain elevated at above US$450/t</li>
<li>NACL is set to expand its alumina capacity by 33% over the next 12 months. This will help double its external alumina sales from 1mt to 2mt. </li>
<li>Trades at 25% discount to historic PE of 13x despite record earnings, healthy balance sheet and strong near-term volume growth driven by brownfield expansion.</li>
</ul>


NACL posted its best ever quarterly performance in 3QFY25, driven by a sharp spike in alumina prices. Alumina prices have since cooled off but remain elevated at above US$450/t
NACL is set to expand its alumina capacity by 33% over the next 12 months. This will help double its external alumina sales from 1mt to 2mt. 
Trades at 25% discount to historic PE of 13x despite record earnings, healthy balance sheet and strong near-term volume growth driven by brownfield expansion.


National Aluminium (NACL IN) New Capacities and Cheap Valuations to Drive Returns

<ul>
<li>There are 17 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the March rebalance. There are many stocks with flows from passive trackers of other indices.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 9.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 15.9bn (US$184m). With over US$40bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.</li>
<li>There are many stocks with opposing flows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index</a> trackers. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)</a> will have inflows from multiple index trackers over the next month.</li>
</ul>


There are 17 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the March rebalance. There are many stocks with flows from passive trackers of other indices.
Estimated one-way turnover is 9.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 15.9bn (US$184m). With over US$40bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
There are many stocks with opposing flows from NSE Nifty Next 50 Index trackers. Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) will have inflows from multiple index trackers over the next month.


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 17 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

Event-Driven

Housing and Urban Development Corporation / Event-Driven

Housing and Urban Development Corporation (HUDCO IN)

Housing and Urban Development Corporation

<ul>
<li>We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and vice versa, 17 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, 19 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap and 2 new additions to MidCap.</li>
<li>The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other potential migrations with all stocks moving higher over the last six months.</li>
<li>Momentum on the upward migrations could sustain as active managers reposition their portfolios. Some stocks will have passive flows over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and vice versa, 17 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, 19 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap and 2 new additions to MidCap.
The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other potential migrations with all stocks moving higher over the last six months.
Momentum on the upward migrations could sustain as active managers reposition their portfolios. Some stocks will have passive flows over the next few months.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2024): Potential Changes as Momentum Recovers

<ul>
<li>Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-December in January. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-December.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.</li>
<li>There are 15 stocks that could have passive inflows from global trackers while 9 could see passive outflows in February.</li>
</ul>


Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-December in January. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-December.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
There are 15 stocks that could have passive inflows from global trackers while 9 could see passive outflows in February.


India: Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February

India

National Aluminium Co. Ltd. is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines for bauxite, refines bauxite into aluminum and manufactures and sells aluminum and aluminum products. National Aluminium Company's products include bauxite, aluminum hydrate, calcined aluminum, aluminum ingots and aluminum wire rods, as well as electricity which is generated for captive consumption.

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National Aluminium (NACL IN)

NIFTY Indices: Flows (Post Capping) At the Close Today; Round-Trip US$2.6bn

The March rebalance of the Nifty family of indices takes place at the close today. The round-trip trade is US$2.6bn and there are 26 stocks with...

Brian Freitas