Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Newly released data in Australia suggests worsening earnings for banks in the coming 1-2 quarters at least, from both less credit volume and higher credit costs.</li>
<li>Retail sales figures are just out with the YoY change continuing to grind lower, now at only 1.45% with implications for credit card transactions and consumer underlying strength.</li>
<li>General Business Situation survey for next 6 months is now lower than its trough in year 2020. New median house price data shows negative growth for 3 consecutive quarters.</li>
</ul>


Newly released data in Australia suggests worsening earnings for banks in the coming 1-2 quarters at least, from both less credit volume and higher credit costs.
Retail sales figures are just out with the YoY change continuing to grind lower, now at only 1.45% with implications for credit card transactions and consumer underlying strength.
General Business Situation survey for next 6 months is now lower than its trough in year 2020. New median house price data shows negative growth for 3 consecutive quarters.


Australia Banks - New Data Suggests Weaker Profit, Primarily from Loan Volume & Credit Costs

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 14th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in CSL, South32, Iress, Computershare, Coles.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 14th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.4bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in CSL, South32, Iress, Computershare, Coles.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 14th): CSL, South32, Iress, Computershare, Coles

<ul>
<li>Bankruptcy data through May suggests that credit metrics are worsening dramatically</li>
<li>Australia's banks report on an interim basis, providing only trading updates quarterly</li>
<li>There are very specific concerns with worsening credit metrics for Suncorp and ANZ</li>
</ul>


Bankruptcy data through May suggests that credit metrics are worsening dramatically
Australia's banks report on an interim basis, providing only trading updates quarterly
There are very specific concerns with worsening credit metrics for Suncorp and ANZ


Australian Banks - High Frequency Data Suggests Major Deterioration Not Yet Visible In Interims

<ul>
<li>ACCC issued a new letter asking ANZ for 2 more weeks, for its decision to takeover Suncorp</li>
<li>ACCC appears to be taking seriously the Stark Report which is very much against takeover</li>
<li>Specifically, the ACCC indicates it needs more time to review ANZ's rebuttal to the report </li>
</ul>


ACCC issued a new letter asking ANZ for 2 more weeks, for its decision to takeover Suncorp
ACCC appears to be taking seriously the Stark Report which is very much against takeover
Specifically, the ACCC indicates it needs more time to review ANZ's rebuttal to the report 


ANZ/Suncorp - Another ACCC Deal Delay, Increasingly Seems Like It Will Not Get Approval

<ul>
<li>There is tremendous growth in Australian insolvencies, which is not simple a base effect</li>
<li>Construction insolvencies are up 75% YoY through mid June, the worst of any sector</li>
<li>NAB shows +17x exposures risk-weighted at 75%, PD +84% in qualifying revolving retail</li>
</ul>


There is tremendous growth in Australian insolvencies, which is not simple a base effect
Construction insolvencies are up 75% YoY through mid June, the worst of any sector
NAB shows +17x exposures risk-weighted at 75%, PD +84% in qualifying revolving retail


Australia Banks - Construction Insolvencies +75%, A Look at NAB Risk Weights, PD

Australia

National Australia Bank Limited is an international banking group which operates in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Asia and the United States.  The Group offers banking services, credit and access card facilities, leasing, housing and general finance, international and investment banking, wealth and funds management, life insurance and custodian, trustee and nominee services.

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National Australia Bank (NAB AU)

Australia Banks - New Data Suggests Weaker Profit, Primarily from Loan Volume & Credit Costs

New data is of concern for bank profit. Housing prices, business index, retail sales, suggest a worsening backdrop. Banks' credit costs in the most...

Daniel Tabbush

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 14th): CSL, South32, Iress, Computershare, Coles

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in CSL, South32, Iress, Computershare, Coles.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Australian Banks - High Frequency Data Suggests Major Deterioration Not Yet Visible In Interims

High frequency data in Australia may be more valuable than many other regions, since banks only report on an interim basis. The data is not good,...

Daniel Tabbush

ANZ/Suncorp - Another ACCC Deal Delay, Increasingly Seems Like It Will Not Get Approval

Further delay by ACCC in its consideration for the ANZ takeover of Suncorp, appears to rest on Stark report, showing how there would be significant...

Daniel Tabbush

Australia Banks - Construction Insolvencies +75%, A Look at NAB Risk Weights, PD

Australia insolvencies are surging, especially in construction, manufacturing, hotels & restaurants. Risk is higher credit costs and bad loans for...

Daniel Tabbush

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