Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>EMEA Financials are the largest Regional Sector underweight in global EM, with just 11.6% of managers positioned ahead of the MSCI EM index.</li>
<li>Moderate but uneven recovery underway, with buying in Greece, Saudi, Kuwait and Poland Financials.</li>
<li>Despite being the sector's predominant country holding, South African Financials are experiencing a halt in growth; nonetheless, FirstRand and Standard Bank continue to be key holdings.</li>
</ul>


EMEA Financials are the largest Regional Sector underweight in global EM, with just 11.6% of managers positioned ahead of the MSCI EM index.
Moderate but uneven recovery underway, with buying in Greece, Saudi, Kuwait and Poland Financials.
Despite being the sector's predominant country holding, South African Financials are experiencing a halt in growth; nonetheless, FirstRand and Standard Bank continue to be key holdings.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed in our previous Int'l Compass (June 29, 2023), we are bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110</li>
<li>Bullish developments have continued: DXY breaking below $101-$101.50, RS bottoming for small-caps, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) 1+ year breakout above $50, Italy's FTSE MIB breaking above multi-year resistance at 28,100.</li>
<li>This is only further evidence supporting our bullish outlook. We are getting the breakout above 4400-4415 on the EURO STOXX 50 that we've been expecting. Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials</li>
</ul>


As discussed in our previous Int'l Compass (June 29, 2023), we are bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110
Bullish developments have continued: DXY breaking below $101-$101.50, RS bottoming for small-caps, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) 1+ year breakout above $50, Italy's FTSE MIB breaking above multi-year resistance at 28,100.
This is only further evidence supporting our bullish outlook. We are getting the breakout above 4400-4415 on the EURO STOXX 50 that we've been expecting. Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials


Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.</li>
<li>We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.</li>
<li>Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.
We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.
Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.


EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

<ul>
<li>The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.</li>
<li>As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.</li>
<li>China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.
As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.
China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.


EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

Global Bank Equity Specialist, Creative Portfolios

Paul Hollingworth

Global Bank Equity Specialist

Creative Portfolios

Equity Bottom-Up

National Bank Of Greece Sa / Equity Bottom-Up

PH Score™   7.4While Greek Bank PH Scores™ are mostly somewhat downbeat, with C-19 curtailing temporarily years of progression at banks and in the economy in general, National Bank of Greece stands out.ETE balances consumer (43.5% of Loans) and corporate credit (56.5%) provision, backed by CASA funding (78% of Deposits)- mainly from Savings. The bank is in its third year of a transformation plan which is beginning to show tangible operational improvement while e-banking is performing well. Asset Quality ratios continue to make great strides while less than 7% of moratoria beneficiaries are in early arrears (&gt;30dpd). On the capital front, ETE has enhanced its capital position, delivering CET1 and Total CAD ratios of 16.1% and 17.1% respectively, up by some 40bps q-o-q. The latter is expected to improve further by some 170bps upon the completion of the Frontier and Ethniki Insurance transactions, expected in the next few months.The PH Score™ of ETE is favorable given amelioration in Profitability, in Efficiency, in Liquidity, and in Asset Quality. There was though some NIM/Spread compression, softer Provisioning, and erosion in the model’s Capitalisation variable though we note that other Capital Ratios are improving.<div class="content-highlight">A FV of 5%, a PBV of 0.44x, and an Earnings Yield of 12.45% are not unattractive. The bank commands strong fundamental momentum given the high PH Score™.</div>

PH Score™   7.4While Greek Bank PH Scores™ are mostly somewhat downbeat, with C-19 curtailing temporarily years of progression at banks and in the economy in general, National Bank of Greece stands out.ETE balances consumer (43.5% of Loans) and corporate credit (56.5%) provision, backed by CASA funding (78% of Deposits)- mainly from Savings. The bank is in its third year of a transformation plan which is beginning to show tangible operational improvement while e-banking is performing well. Asset Quality ratios continue to make great strides while less than 7% of moratoria beneficiaries are in early arrears (&gt;30dpd). On the capital front, ETE has enhanced its capital position, delivering CET1 and Total CAD ratios of 16.1% and 17.1% respectively, up by some 40bps q-o-q. The latter is expected to improve further by some 170bps upon the completion of the Frontier and Ethniki Insurance transactions, expected in the next few months.The PH Score™ of ETE is favorable given amelioration in Profitability, in Efficiency, in Liquidity, and in Asset Quality. There was though some NIM/Spread compression, softer Provisioning, and erosion in the model’s Capitalisation variable though we note that other Capital Ratios are improving.A FV of 5%, a PBV of 0.44x, and an Earnings Yield of 12.45% are not unattractive. The bank commands strong fundamental momentum given the high PH Score™.

Greece

National Bank of Greece S.A. offers retail and corporate banking services. The Bank accepts deposits and offers loans, lease financing, mortgages, and investing and insurance services to industrial, commercial, and consumer clients. National Bank of Greece operates domestically and overseas.

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National Bank Of Greece Sa (ETE GA)

EMEA Financials: Uneven Recovery

EMEA Financials are the largest Regional Sector underweight in global EM. Moderate but uneven recovery underway, with buying in Greece, Saudi,...

Steven Holden

Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

We remain bullish on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93, targeting $110; Bullish developments continue: $DXY below $101.50, small...

Vermilion Research

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

EM vs. EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the $DXY peaked in November 2022. If the DXY remains below...

Vermilion Research

ETE: A Standout in Greece

Unlike other Greek lenders, National Bank of Greece is making strong fundamental progress and the shares are far from dear.

Paul Hollingworth

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