Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the June rebalance of the CSI All Share Semiconductor Index ends 30 April. The changes should be announced on 30 May and implemented on 13 June.</li>
<li>We forecast 4/5 adds and 8 deletes for the index with a one-way turnover of 2.4% and a round-trip trade of CNY 990m (US$136m).</li>
<li>There are many forecast adds and deletes that will have same side flows from trackers of the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index and the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the June rebalance of the CSI All Share Semiconductor Index ends 30 April. The changes should be announced on 30 May and implemented on 13 June.
We forecast 4/5 adds and 8 deletes for the index with a one-way turnover of 2.4% and a round-trip trade of CNY 990m (US$136m).
There are many forecast adds and deletes that will have same side flows from trackers of the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index and the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index.


CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Index Flows for Some Stocks

<ul>
<li>There could be one change for the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexchip-semiconductor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40390:1" rel="noopener">Nexchip Semiconductor (688249 CH)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amlogic-shanghai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30340:1" rel="noopener">Amlogic Shanghai (688099 CH)</a> in June.</li>
<li>Passive trackers are estimated to buy 1.4x ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexchip-semiconductor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40390:1" rel="noopener">Nexchip Semiconductor</a> and sell 0.8x ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amlogic-shanghai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30340:1" rel="noopener">Amlogic Shanghai</a>. There will be buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-in" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31062:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC)</a> due to capping.</li>
<li>The forecast add and delete have performed in line since the start of the year but there has been a move higher in the last few weeks.</li>
</ul>


There could be one change for the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index with Nexchip Semiconductor (688249 CH) replacing Amlogic Shanghai (688099 CH) in June.
Passive trackers are estimated to buy 1.4x ADV in Nexchip Semiconductor and sell 0.8x ADV in Amlogic Shanghai. There will be buying in Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) due to capping.
The forecast add and delete have performed in line since the start of the year but there has been a move higher in the last few weeks.


CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in June

<ul>
<li>There could be three changes for the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index at the close of trading on 13 June.</li>
<li>Based on the assets tracking the index, passive trackers will need to trade between 0.1-0.4x ADV in the stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bestechnic-shanghai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33459:1" rel="noopener">Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzhou-kematek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44255:1" rel="noopener">Suzhou Kematek (301611 CH)</a> will also have net inflows from passive trackers of other indices at the same time, adding to the flow.</li>
</ul>


There could be three changes for the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index at the close of trading on 13 June.
Based on the assets tracking the index, passive trackers will need to trade between 0.1-0.4x ADV in the stocks.

Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH) and Suzhou Kematek (301611 CH) will also have net inflows from passive trackers of other indices at the same time, adding to the flow.


CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Adds for Some Stocks Increase Flow

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the 1Q2025 Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine as the exchange changed the rule to only disclose north bound position once a quarter.</li>
<li>We estimate that the inflows in 1Q2025 were US$1,760 million and holdings were US$307 billion, compared to outflows of US$20 billion in 4Q. </li>
<li>We highlight flows for BYD, Naura Technology, Cmb, Yangtze Power, Weichai Power.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the 1Q2025 Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine as the exchange changed the rule to only disclose north bound position once a quarter.
We estimate that the inflows in 1Q2025 were US$1,760 million and holdings were US$307 billion, compared to outflows of US$20 billion in 4Q. 
We highlight flows for BYD, Naura Technology, Cmb, Yangtze Power, Weichai Power.


Northbound Flows (1Q2025): BYD, Naura Technology, Cmb, Yangtze Power, Weichai Power

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After dropping by half, Tokyo Electron's share price has bounced. But it is still vulnerable to cutbacks in AI-related investments and tariff-induced recession.</li>
<li>A positive scenario has net profit rising by 8% in FY Mar-26. In a negative scenario, it drops by 25%. We take the positive view.</li>
<li>Innovations in manufacturing point toward a big step up in profit margins by the end of the decade. But watch out for a cyclical downturn between now and then.</li>
</ul>


After dropping by half, Tokyo Electron's share price has bounced. But it is still vulnerable to cutbacks in AI-related investments and tariff-induced recession.
A positive scenario has net profit rising by 8% in FY Mar-26. In a negative scenario, it drops by 25%. We take the positive view.
Innovations in manufacturing point toward a big step up in profit margins by the end of the decade. But watch out for a cyclical downturn between now and then.


Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Buy if You're Not Afraid of Recession

China

NAURA Technology Group Co., Ltd. is an integrated high-tech company, which manufactures electronics equipments and components, including IC equipments, hybrid integrated circuits and combines with R&D, sales, and services.

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NAURA Technology Group (002371 CH)

CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in June

Nexchip Semi could replace Amlogic Shanghai in the index. Passive trackers will need to buy 1.4x ADV in the add and sell 0.8x ADV in the delete....

Brian Freitas

CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Adds for Some Stocks Increase Flow

There could be 3 changes for the index in June. Most of the index changes will have inflows/outflows from other index trackers at the same time,...

Brian Freitas

Northbound Flows (1Q2025): BYD, Naura Technology, Cmb, Yangtze Power, Weichai Power

We analyzed Northbound connect data for 1Q2025 and highlight flows for BYD, Naura Technology, Cmb, Yangtze Power, Weichai Power.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Buy if You're Not Afraid of Recession

After dropping by half, the share price has bounced. Sharply lower growth has been priced in, but recession perhaps not. Manufacturing innovation...

Scott Foster

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Index Flows for Some Stocks

There could be 12-13 changes for the index in June. Some stocks will have same way flows from multiple index trackers and those stocks could...

Brian Freitas

CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in June

Nexchip Semi could replace Amlogic Shanghai in the index. Passive trackers will need to buy 1.4x ADV in the add and sell 0.8x ADV in the delete....

Brian Freitas

CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Adds for Some Stocks Increase Flow

There could be 3 changes for the index in June. Most of the index changes will have inflows/outflows from other index trackers at the same time,...

Brian Freitas

Northbound Flows (1Q2025): BYD, Naura Technology, Cmb, Yangtze Power, Weichai Power

We analyzed Northbound connect data for 1Q2025 and highlight flows for BYD, Naura Technology, Cmb, Yangtze Power, Weichai Power.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Buy if You're Not Afraid of Recession

After dropping by half, the share price has bounced. Sharply lower growth has been priced in, but recession perhaps not. Manufacturing innovation...

Scott Foster