Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Takeaways: 1. Semi equipment vendors beat 4Q23E; 2. China and DRAM customers stronger ; 3. Margin stable due to lack of depreciation; 4. Top four controls over 90% of shares;</li>
<li>More takeaways: 5. Semi equipment companies' share price performance should lag behind foundries, foundries should lag behind fabless customers; 6. China semi equipment vendors outperforming global peers on local replacement;</li>
<li>Estimating a flattish global semiconductor equipment sales growth for 2023 and 2024 but expecting a double digit y/y sales growth of 17% for 2025 and 10% for 2026. </li>
</ul>


Takeaways: 1. Semi equipment vendors beat 4Q23E; 2. China and DRAM customers stronger ; 3. Margin stable due to lack of depreciation; 4. Top four controls over 90% of shares;
More takeaways: 5. Semi equipment companies' share price performance should lag behind foundries, foundries should lag behind fabless customers; 6. China semi equipment vendors outperforming global peers on local replacement;
Estimating a flattish global semiconductor equipment sales growth for 2023 and 2024 but expecting a double digit y/y sales growth of 17% for 2025 and 10% for 2026. 


Takeaways After Global Semi Equipment Model Updated and Our View on 2024/2025

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>The U.S government’s escalated chip export restrictions has triggered a sell-off of onshore Chinese semiconductor stocks as they are expected to prevent domestic chip manufacturers and designers from accessing key components.</li><li>The Biden administration issued a series of policies last week aimed at slowing Beijing’s push to develop its own chip industry, adding more companies to a trade blacklist and imposing new restrictions on related technologies.</li><li>The action is expected to dent production at China’s domestic semiconductor foundries, which rely on U.S. companies for some components, industry insiders said.</li></ul>

The U.S government’s escalated chip export restrictions has triggered a sell-off of onshore Chinese semiconductor stocks as they are expected to prevent domestic chip manufacturers and designers from accessing key components.The Biden administration issued a series of policies last week aimed at slowing Beijing’s push to develop its own chip industry, adding more companies to a trade blacklist and imposing new restrictions on related technologies.The action is expected to dent production at China’s domestic semiconductor foundries, which rely on U.S. companies for some components, industry insiders said.

Chinese Semiconductor Stocks Nosedive as U.S. Tightens Chip Export Controls

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Risk-on signals continue to pile up, which continues to support our constructive outlook. Building off of last week's report, growth Sectors such as Technology and Communications continue to improve and we recommend adding exposure (e.g., Bilibili BILI-US/9626-HK).

Risk-on signals continue to pile up, which continues to support our constructive outlook. Building off of last week's report, growth Sectors such as Technology and Communications continue to improve and we recommend adding exposure (e.g., Bilibili BILI-US/9626-HK).

Global Equity Strategy: Growth Sectors Continue To Improve -- Add Exposure

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Capital Markets

Circuit Fabology Microelectronics Equipment / Equity Capital Markets

Circuit Fabology Microelectronics Equipment (9630 HK)

Circuit Fabology Microelectronics Equipment

<ul>
<li>Circuit Fabology has passed its A+H listing hearing. CICC is the sole sponsor.</li>
<li>We look at the company's core segments: PCB direct imaging equipment and semiconductor direct-writing lithography equipment.</li>
<li>We discussed our preliminary thoughts on the company's fair value based on A-H premium.</li>
</ul>


Circuit Fabology has passed its A+H listing hearing. CICC is the sole sponsor.
We look at the company's core segments: PCB direct imaging equipment and semiconductor direct-writing lithography equipment.
We discussed our preliminary thoughts on the company's fair value based on A-H premium.


Circuit Fabology (芯碁微装) A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of A-share stocks as of May 15th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD387,426m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in PING AN INSURANCE, GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES CO.,LTD. #601211), S.F., Wuliangye, SHENZHEN SALUBRIS PHARMACEUTICALS.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of A-share stocks as of May 15th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD387,426m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in PING AN INSURANCE, GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES CO.,LTD. #601211), S.F., Wuliangye, SHENZHEN SALUBRIS PHARMACEUTICALS.


A-Share Margin Trading Weekly (May 15th): PING AN INSURANCE

China

NAURA Technology Group Co., Ltd. is an integrated high-tech company, which manufactures electronics equipments and components, including IC equipments, hybrid integrated circuits and combines with R&D, sales, and services.

Price Gauge
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NAURA Technology Group (002371 CH)

Takeaways After Global Semi Equipment Model Updated and Our View on 2024/2025

Takeaways After Global Semi Equipment Model Updated and Our View on 2024/2025; We are providing six takeaways and sales growth estimates for 2024-2026

Andrew Lu

Chinese Semiconductor Stocks Nosedive as U.S. Tightens Chip Export Controls

The U.S government’s escalated chip export restrictions has triggered a sell-off of onshore Chinese semiconductor stocks

Caixin Global

Global Equity Strategy: Growth Sectors Continue To Improve -- Add Exposure

Building off of last week's report, growth Sectors such as Technology and Communications continue to improve and we recommend adding exposure...

Vermilion Research

Circuit Fabology (芯碁微装) A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts

Circuit Fabology has passed its A+H listing hearing. In this note, we look at the company's business, its industry context and provide our early...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Takeaways After Global Semi Equipment Model Updated and Our View on 2024/2025

Takeaways After Global Semi Equipment Model Updated and Our View on 2024/2025; We are providing six takeaways and sales growth estimates for 2024-2026

Andrew Lu

Chinese Semiconductor Stocks Nosedive as U.S. Tightens Chip Export Controls

The U.S government’s escalated chip export restrictions has triggered a sell-off of onshore Chinese semiconductor stocks

Caixin Global

Global Equity Strategy: Growth Sectors Continue To Improve -- Add Exposure

Building off of last week's report, growth Sectors such as Technology and Communications continue to improve and we recommend adding exposure...

Vermilion Research

Circuit Fabology (芯碁微装) A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts

Circuit Fabology has passed its A+H listing hearing. In this note, we look at the company's business, its industry context and provide our early...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-Share Margin Trading Weekly (May 15th): PING AN INSURANCE

We analyzed A-share margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted PING AN INSURANCE (601318 CH), GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM