Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Great Wall Motor’s revenue increased by 26%, but its profit increased by less than 5% in 2023.</li>
<li>Huawei’s shipments increased 36% YoY in 4Q23 and was the only company to witness an increase among the top five sellers.</li>
<li>Jack Ma, the founder, and Mr. Joe Tsai, the chairman, purchased Alibaba’s shares.</li>
</ul>


Great Wall Motor’s revenue increased by 26%, but its profit increased by less than 5% in 2023.
Huawei’s shipments increased 36% YoY in 4Q23 and was the only company to witness an increase among the top five sellers.
Jack Ma, the founder, and Mr. Joe Tsai, the chairman, purchased Alibaba’s shares.


China Consumption Weekly (29 Jan 2024): Great Wall Motor, Huawei, Alibaba, Mixue, Nayuki

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Guming generates revenue mainly from the sales of goods/equipment to its franchisees (or ToB business). So, Guming’s future growth depends significantly on its ability to operate and expand store network.</li>
<li>China’s freshly-made beverage market is highly competitive. Guming is unlikely to catch up with MIXUE, but Guming will be overtaken by the rest players if it fails to compete effectively.</li>
<li>Due to Guming’s business model, investors're hard to see the real picture of Guming solely based on its revenue/profits. Guming’s valuation should be higher than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nayuki-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32149:1" rel="noopener">Nayuki </a>but lower than MIXUE.</li>
</ul>


Guming generates revenue mainly from the sales of goods/equipment to its franchisees (or ToB business). So, Guming’s future growth depends significantly on its ability to operate and expand store network.
China’s freshly-made beverage market is highly competitive. Guming is unlikely to catch up with MIXUE, but Guming will be overtaken by the rest players if it fails to compete effectively.
Due to Guming’s business model, investors're hard to see the real picture of Guming solely based on its revenue/profits. Guming’s valuation should be higher than Nayuki but lower than MIXUE.


Pre-IPO Guming Holdings - The Current Market Position Is Not Secure

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 12th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for CNOOC, Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 12th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for CNOOC, Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 12th): CNOOC, Tencent

<ul>
<li>The business model of MIXUE is S2B2C. The expansive and highly efficient supply chain is the bedrock of MIXUE’s industry leading performance and scale, setting it apart from its peers.</li>
<li>MIXUE has more flexibility to diversify its business to explore new growth points and is also more resilient to risks/industry changes, which determines sustainability and growth ceiling of future development.</li>
<li>As competition for freshly-made tea drinks industry intensifies, capital has become “impatient”. As an industry leader, now is the best time for an IPO. MIXUE’s valuation could reach US$10 billion.</li>
</ul>


The business model of MIXUE is S2B2C. The expansive and highly efficient supply chain is the bedrock of MIXUE’s industry leading performance and scale, setting it apart from its peers.
MIXUE has more flexibility to diversify its business to explore new growth points and is also more resilient to risks/industry changes, which determines sustainability and growth ceiling of future development.
As competition for freshly-made tea drinks industry intensifies, capital has become “impatient”. As an industry leader, now is the best time for an IPO. MIXUE’s valuation could reach US$10 billion.


Pre-IPO MIXUE Group - The Snow King Opens up a Lot More Room for Imagination than Expected

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (GUM HK)</a> is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are Goldman Sachs, and UBS.</li>
<li>Guming Holdings (Guming) is a maker of freshly-made beverages in China.</li>
<li>As per CIC, its “Good me” brand is China’s largest mid-priced freshly-made tea store brand in terms of both GMV in 2023 and store count as of Dec 2023.</li>
</ul>



Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are Goldman Sachs, and UBS.
Guming Holdings (Guming) is a maker of freshly-made beverages in China.
As per CIC, its “Good me” brand is China’s largest mid-priced freshly-made tea store brand in terms of both GMV in 2023 and store count as of Dec 2023.


Guming Holdings (Goodme) Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Hong Kong

Nayuki Holdings Limited operates as a holding compnay. The Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and retails tea and bakery products. Nayuki serves customers in China.

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Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK)

China Consumption Weekly (29 Jan 2024): Great Wall Motor, Huawei, Alibaba, Mixue, Nayuki

Great Wall Motor’s revenue increased by 26%, but its profit increased by less than 5% in 2023. Huawei shipment increased by 36% YoY in 4Q23. The...

Ming Lu

Pre-IPO Guming Holdings - The Current Market Position Is Not Secure

In the context of rapid growth in freshly-made tea beverage market, Guming has performed well. However, due to fierce competition and disadvantages...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 12th): CNOOC, Tencent

Highlight: We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight Hong Kong connect flows for CNOOC, Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pre-IPO MIXUE Group - The Snow King Opens up a Lot More Room for Imagination than Expected

Due to high moat in supply chain, MIXUE will eventually stand out and dominate the market. Although capital's preference for the industry is...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Guming Holdings (Goodme) Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are Goldman Sachs, and UBS. Guming...

Clarence Chu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)