External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We are still highly cautious on the catering sector (as well as Nayuki) because of price war induced by the weakening macro demand and surge in competitions.</li><li>We maintain BUY on Nayuki only because of its: 1) high cash level (over 75%+ of its market cap), 2) potential income and profits from ramp up of its franchising business and 3) efforts to reduce/ control store level and headquarter costs.</li><li>SSS trend YTD has been negative and we see limited catalysts ahead.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We are still highly cautious on the catering sector (as well as Nayuki) because of price war induced by the weakening macro demand and surge in competitions.We maintain BUY on Nayuki only because of its: 1) high cash level (over 75%+ of its market cap), 2) potential income and profits from ramp up of its franchising business and 3) efforts to reduce/ control store level and headquarter costs.SSS trend YTD has been negative and we see limited catalysts ahead.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nayuki (2150 HK) - Franchising and Costs Cutting Are the Keys

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>MIXUE’s valuation should be higher than peers such as Guming and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-baicha-baidao-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40029:1" rel="noopener">Baicha Baidao Industrial</a>. A comfortable valuation range is 18-20 P/E, higher than peers. So, the IPO pricing is attractive.</li>
<li>2024 full-year net profit is HK$4.8 billion.Net profit could reach HK$5.7 billion (up 19% YoY), HK$6.6 billion (up 16% YoY), HK$7.6 billion (up 15% YoY) in 2025, 2026, 2027, respectively. </li>
<li>Since Nongfu Spring’s revenue scale/net profit margin is higher than MIXUE, MIXUE’s valuation should be lower than Nongfu Spring. Investors need to be alert to the post-IPO performance growth pressure.</li>
</ul>


MIXUE’s valuation should be higher than peers such as Guming and Baicha Baidao Industrial. A comfortable valuation range is 18-20 P/E, higher than peers. So, the IPO pricing is attractive.
2024 full-year net profit is HK$4.8 billion.Net profit could reach HK$5.7 billion (up 19% YoY), HK$6.6 billion (up 16% YoY), HK$7.6 billion (up 15% YoY) in 2025, 2026, 2027, respectively. 
Since Nongfu Spring’s revenue scale/net profit margin is higher than MIXUE, MIXUE’s valuation should be lower than Nongfu Spring. Investors need to be alert to the post-IPO performance growth pressure.


Pre-IPO MIXUE Group (2097.HK) - The IPO Is Attractively Priced

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a> has a successful IPO in Hong Kong, with share price surged 43.2%. We will trim from here and will not buy at the current level.  </li>
<li>Our forecasts call for a decent 20.8% and 17.6% earnings growth for FY25 and FY26, putting it on RICH PERs of 19.1x for FY25 and 16.3x for FY26.</li>
<li>The Chinese tea sector has average PERs of 12.4x and 10.5x, suggesting MIXUE's leadership is well reflected in the over 50% premium, and the safety margin has significantly narrowed. </li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (2097 HK) has a successful IPO in Hong Kong, with share price surged 43.2%. We will trim from here and will not buy at the current level.  
Our forecasts call for a decent 20.8% and 17.6% earnings growth for FY25 and FY26, putting it on RICH PERs of 19.1x for FY25 and 16.3x for FY26.
The Chinese tea sector has average PERs of 12.4x and 10.5x, suggesting MIXUE's leadership is well reflected in the over 50% premium, and the safety margin has significantly narrowed. 


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a> raised around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.</li>
<li>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (2097 HK) raised around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO.
MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


MIXUE IPO Trading - Strong Demand, Set to Break the Tea Chain Jinx

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a>, a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mixue-group-2097-hk-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:177152" rel="noopener">MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mixue-group-2097-hk-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:177307" rel="noopener">MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bear Case</a>. </li>
<li>There are five cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests Mixue is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (2097 HK), a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO.
We previously discussed the IPO in MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case and MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bear Case. 
There are five cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests Mixue is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.


MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Hong Kong

Nayuki Holdings Limited operates as a holding compnay. The Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and retails tea and bakery products. Nayuki serves customers in China.

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Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK)

Nayuki (2150 HK) - Franchising and Costs Cutting Are the Keys

We are still highly cautious on the catering sector (as well as Nayuki) because of price war induced by the weakening macro demand and surge in...

CMB International

Pre-IPO MIXUE Group (2097.HK) - The IPO Is Attractively Priced

MIXUE's IPO debut was stellar.By March 3, market value was over HK$100 billion, higher than HK$86.4-96 billion range as analyzed in insight. P/E...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

MIXUE Group (2097 HK): What to Do Now?

MIXUE has a successful Hong Kong IPO with a 43.2% share price surge on the first day of trading, but caution is needed due to the high PER premium...

Osbert Tang, CFA

MIXUE IPO Trading - Strong Demand, Set to Break the Tea Chain Jinx

Mixue Group (2097 HK) raised around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO, which was well covered. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests Mixue is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Nayuki (2150 HK) - Franchising and Costs Cutting Are the Keys

We are still highly cautious on the catering sector (as well as Nayuki) because of price war induced by the weakening macro demand and surge in...

CMB International

Pre-IPO MIXUE Group (2097.HK) - The IPO Is Attractively Priced

MIXUE's IPO debut was stellar.By March 3, market value was over HK$100 billion, higher than HK$86.4-96 billion range as analyzed in insight. P/E...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

MIXUE Group (2097 HK): What to Do Now?

​MIXUE has a successful Hong Kong IPO with a 43.2% share price surge on the first day of trading, but caution is needed due to the high PER premium...

Osbert Tang, CFA

MIXUE IPO Trading - Strong Demand, Set to Break the Tea Chain Jinx

Mixue Group (2097 HK) raised around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO, which was well covered. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests Mixue is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

MIXUE has a successful Hong Kong IPO with a 43.2% share price surge on the first day of trading, but caution is needed due to the high PER premium...