Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance ended on 31 January, changes will be announced first week of March and implemented at the close of trading on 13 March.</li>
<li>We forecast two changes for the Bio Index and one change for the Internet Index. Plus there will be capping changes for all indices.</li>
<li>The largest flows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-sdi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:503:1" rel="noopener">Samsung SDI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-energy-solution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33464:1" rel="noopener">LG Energy Solution</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:208:1" rel="noopener">POSCO Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alteogen-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15886:1" rel="noopener">Alteogen</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16029:1" rel="noopener">Naver Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/legochem-biosciences-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19803:1" rel="noopener">Legochem Biosciences</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netmarble-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22839:1" rel="noopener">Netmarble</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc</a>.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance ended on 31 January, changes will be announced first week of March and implemented at the close of trading on 13 March.
We forecast two changes for the Bio Index and one change for the Internet Index. Plus there will be capping changes for all indices.
The largest flows will be in Samsung SDI, LG Energy Solution, POSCO Holdings, Alteogen, Naver Corp, Legochem Biosciences, Netmarble and Celltrion Inc.


KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Smaller Deal Than Usual

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-up-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36232:1" rel="noopener">Shift Up (462870 KS)</a> raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top. Around US$1.2bn worth of shares will be released from their lockup soon.</li>
<li>Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Shift Up (462870 KS) raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top. Around US$1.2bn worth of shares will be released from their lockup soon.
Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Shift Up IPO Lockup - US$1.2bn Lockup Release of Strategic, Employees and IPO Investors

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kadokawa-dwango-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4152:1" rel="noopener">Kadokawa Dwango (9468 JP)</a> shares rose 16% after <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/sony-talks-buy-media-powerhouse-behind-elden-ring-sources-say-2024-11-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> is in talks to acquire it. Kadokawa confirmed an initial letter of intent. </li>
<li>The privatisation interest is unsurprising as Kadokawa’s publishing arm, acclaimed intellectual properties, and positioning in the anime industry would be attractive to Sony.</li>
<li>The upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a risk if a binding proposal emerges, it could be takeunder like Bain/T-Gaia.</li>
</ul>



Kadokawa Dwango (9468 JP) shares rose 16% after Reuters reported that Sony Corp (6758 JP) is in talks to acquire it. Kadokawa confirmed an initial letter of intent. 
The privatisation interest is unsurprising as Kadokawa’s publishing arm, acclaimed intellectual properties, and positioning in the anime industry would be attractive to Sony.
The upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a risk if a binding proposal emerges, it could be takeunder like Bain/T-Gaia.


Kadokawa (9468 JP): Take Profits as a Sony Privatisation Rumours Surface

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>While the short-selling ban for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> will remain in place until the first months of 2025, that does not prevent the index from pulling back.</li>
<li>Pullbacks, in this context, are an opportunity to buy, in the hope the index will rise higher from its current position.</li>
<li>Our models right now are showing a short-term WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT scenario coming in the next 2 weeks. Keep reading for more details.</li>
</ul>


While the short-selling ban for the KOSPI 200 INDEX will remain in place until the first months of 2025, that does not prevent the index from pulling back.
Pullbacks, in this context, are an opportunity to buy, in the hope the index will rise higher from its current position.
Our models right now are showing a short-term WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT scenario coming in the next 2 weeks. Keep reading for more details.


Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>During NCSoft's exercise period starting August 14, the spread was tight, with NPS likely to exercise rights if it widens above 5% in the final days.</li>
<li>NPS is unlikely to exercise its full 6.3% stake, but may sell 2% if the stock price drops below ₩180,000, widening the spread over 5%.</li>
<li>This may increase NCSoft's division costs and overhang risk, potentially amplifying stock price decline. Monitoring NCSoft's stock early next week is crucial.</li>
</ul>


During NCSoft's exercise period starting August 14, the spread was tight, with NPS likely to exercise rights if it widens above 5% in the final days.
NPS is unlikely to exercise its full 6.3% stake, but may sell 2% if the stock price drops below ₩180,000, widening the spread over 5%.
This may increase NCSoft's division costs and overhang risk, potentially amplifying stock price decline. Monitoring NCSoft's stock early next week is crucial.


Potential Price Decline Amplification from NPS's Appraisal Rights Exercise Against NCSoft

South Korea

NCSOFT Corporation develops and markets on-line games that enable users to play over the Internet and computer software, such as web editing software.  The Company also designs and constructs databases, Intranet, and commercial Internet access systems.

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NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS)

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Smaller Deal Than Usual

Indications are for a smaller rebalance than usual as index performance suffers and AUM continues to shrink. There are some constituent changes...

Brian Freitas

Shift Up IPO Lockup - US$1.2bn Lockup Release of Strategic, Employees and IPO Investors

Shift Up (462870 KS) raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top. Around US$1.2bn worth of shares will be released from...

Sumeet Singh

Kadokawa (9468 JP): Take Profits as a Sony Privatisation Rumours Surface

While an acquisition has a strong strategic rationale, the upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a...

Arun George

EQD | KOSPI 200 May Pullback Soon...

Pullbacks on the KOSPI 200 INDEX are currently a buy opportunity, given the short-selling ban still in place. We predict a short-term WEEKLY...

Nico Rosti

Potential Price Decline Amplification from NPS's Appraisal Rights Exercise Against NCSoft

This post examines the potential for price decline amplification due to NPS's possible exercise of appraisal rights against NCSoft.

Sanghyun Park

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