Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Tencent has been interested in acquiring Nexon for more than six years. However, the timing and price were not right for such a deal to take place in the past.</li>
<li>The higher probability scenario is for Kim's family members to sell when the timing and price is right. This time around, a $15 billion could be the right price. </li>
<li>Late founder Kim's family members own a 44.4% stake in Nexon through NXC Corp and its affiliate NXMB BV. Kim's wife and daughters own a 67.6% stake in NXC Corp. </li>
</ul>


Tencent has been interested in acquiring Nexon for more than six years. However, the timing and price were not right for such a deal to take place in the past.
The higher probability scenario is for Kim's family members to sell when the timing and price is right. This time around, a $15 billion could be the right price. 
Late founder Kim's family members own a 44.4% stake in Nexon through NXC Corp and its affiliate NXMB BV. Kim's wife and daughters own a 67.6% stake in NXC Corp. 


Tencent To Acquire Nexon? Time and Price Lining Up for a Final Deal?

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Now that Lee Jae-Myung has become new South Korean President, the uncertainty revolving who will lead South Korea in the next five years is now over.</li>
<li>In this insight, we discuss four investment themes (related to Lee Jae-Myung becoming the new South Korean President) that could outperform the market for the remainder of 2025.</li>
<li>The four investment themes include Korean Holdcos/Quasi Holdcos, Korean Cultural Contents, Securities, and SK Group Companies.</li>
</ul>


Now that Lee Jae-Myung has become new South Korean President, the uncertainty revolving who will lead South Korea in the next five years is now over.
In this insight, we discuss four investment themes (related to Lee Jae-Myung becoming the new South Korean President) that could outperform the market for the remainder of 2025.
The four investment themes include Korean Holdcos/Quasi Holdcos, Korean Cultural Contents, Securities, and SK Group Companies.


Lee Jae-Myung Becomes the New South Korean President - Four Investment Themes That Could Outperform

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>During NCSoft's exercise period starting August 14, the spread was tight, with NPS likely to exercise rights if it widens above 5% in the final days.</li>
<li>NPS is unlikely to exercise its full 6.3% stake, but may sell 2% if the stock price drops below ₩180,000, widening the spread over 5%.</li>
<li>This may increase NCSoft's division costs and overhang risk, potentially amplifying stock price decline. Monitoring NCSoft's stock early next week is crucial.</li>
</ul>


During NCSoft's exercise period starting August 14, the spread was tight, with NPS likely to exercise rights if it widens above 5% in the final days.
NPS is unlikely to exercise its full 6.3% stake, but may sell 2% if the stock price drops below ₩180,000, widening the spread over 5%.
This may increase NCSoft's division costs and overhang risk, potentially amplifying stock price decline. Monitoring NCSoft's stock early next week is crucial.


Potential Price Decline Amplification from NPS's Appraisal Rights Exercise Against NCSoft

<ul>
<li>On 24 June, NCSoft announced a corporate split-off of two divisions called named NC QA Company and NC IDS Company.</li>
<li>NCSoft plans to hold a shareholders meeting where to vote on the split off decision on 14 August. Effective date of the company split is scheduled for 1 October 2024.</li>
<li>The consensus estimates sales of 2.0 trillion won (up 19.2% YoY) and operating profit of 272 billion won (up 155.2% YoY) in 2025.</li>
</ul>


On 24 June, NCSoft announced a corporate split-off of two divisions called named NC QA Company and NC IDS Company.
NCSoft plans to hold a shareholders meeting where to vote on the split off decision on 14 August. Effective date of the company split is scheduled for 1 October 2024.
The consensus estimates sales of 2.0 trillion won (up 19.2% YoY) and operating profit of 272 billion won (up 155.2% YoY) in 2025.


NCSoft: Corporate Split-Off of Two Divisions

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On 5 June, Shift Up announced that it will be postponing its IPO to July. The original book building period for the institutional investors was from 3 to 13 June.  </li>
<li>The final book building date has been postponed to 27 June. The subsequent public offering subscription for general investors was also postponed to 2 to 3 July.</li>
<li><em><strong>A major investment positive of Shift Up is enormous initial success of Stellar Blade which was the best selling game in the U.S. and numerous other countries in April 2024. </strong></em></li>
</ul>


On 5 June, Shift Up announced that it will be postponing its IPO to July. The original book building period for the institutional investors was from 3 to 13 June.  
The final book building date has been postponed to 27 June. The subsequent public offering subscription for general investors was also postponed to 2 to 3 July.
A major investment positive of Shift Up is enormous initial success of Stellar Blade which was the best selling game in the U.S. and numerous other countries in April 2024. 


Shift Up Delays the IPO and Stellar Blade Tops Number One Game in the US in April

South Korea

NCSOFT Corporation develops and markets on-line games that enable users to play over the Internet and computer software, such as web editing software.  The Company also designs and constructs databases, Intranet, and commercial Internet access systems.

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NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS)

Tencent To Acquire Nexon? Time and Price Lining Up for a Final Deal?

The higher probability scenario is for Kim's family members to sell when the timing and price is right. This time around, a sale of NXC Corp/Nexon...

Douglas Kim

Lee Jae-Myung Becomes the New South Korean President - Four Investment Themes That Could Outperform

In this insight, we discuss four investment themes (related to Lee Jae-Myung becoming the new South Korean President) that could outperform the...

Douglas Kim

Potential Price Decline Amplification from NPS's Appraisal Rights Exercise Against NCSoft

This post examines the potential for price decline amplification due to NPS's possible exercise of appraisal rights against NCSoft.

Sanghyun Park

NCSoft: Corporate Split-Off of Two Divisions

On 24 June, NCSoft announced a corporate split-off of two divisions called named NC QA Company and NC IDS Company. The consensus estimates...

Douglas Kim

Shift Up Delays the IPO and Stellar Blade Tops Number One Game in the US in April

Shift Up announced that it will be postponing its IPO to July. A major investment positive is the enormous initial success of Stellar Blade which...

Douglas Kim

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