Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Screen numbers a headline miss but outlook for guidance hike over 2Q numbers remains.</li>
<li>Shin Etsu drop on back of PVC weakness could be short lived on a more dovish outcome.</li>
<li>Renesas down after numbers with market wanting more clarity over comments that 2026 remains "unclear".</li>
</ul>


Screen numbers a headline miss but outlook for guidance hike over 2Q numbers remains.
Shin Etsu drop on back of PVC weakness could be short lived on a more dovish outcome.
Renesas down after numbers with market wanting more clarity over comments that 2026 remains "unclear".


Japan Morning Connection: EU Trade Deal Should Help JP Names with High European Exposure Gain

<ul>
<li>STM adds to the gloom for power semis after surprise loss and -16% drop. Fuji Elec and Renesas report today in Japan.</li>
<li>Dow -18% after tariff uncertainty hist exports sending peers lower. Watch Shin Etsu despite its more PVC focus.</li>
<li>Intel's new CEO struggling to turn the ship around with a competitive AI offering still a ways off.</li>
</ul>


STM adds to the gloom for power semis after surprise loss and -16% drop. Fuji Elec and Renesas report today in Japan.
Dow -18% after tariff uncertainty hist exports sending peers lower. Watch Shin Etsu despite its more PVC focus.
Intel's new CEO struggling to turn the ship around with a competitive AI offering still a ways off.


Japan Morning Connection: Mixed Tape for Semi's with AI up and Power and Industrial Down Further

<ul>
<li>Wolfspeed formally goes into Chapter 11, but the upside for Renesas makes its recent write off look excessive.</li>
<li>Short interest for some Japanese autos has surged which points to a squeeze once US trade deal reached.</li>
<li>Space names should be back in  focus ahead of next week's 'Space Tide Conference' in Tokyo. Watch iQPS, Synspective and Sky Perfect JSAT for upside.</li>
</ul>


Wolfspeed formally goes into Chapter 11, but the upside for Renesas makes its recent write off look excessive.
Short interest for some Japanese autos has surged which points to a squeeze once US trade deal reached.
Space names should be back in  focus ahead of next week's 'Space Tide Conference' in Tokyo. Watch iQPS, Synspective and Sky Perfect JSAT for upside.


Japan Morning Connection: Japan Set for Wobbly Start on Tariff Threats but Impact Likely Short Lived

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.</li>
<li>Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.</li>
<li>As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
</ul>


We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.
Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.
As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).


Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

<ul>
<li>Masayoshi Son is floating a $1trn AI factory in Arizona in exchange for tax breaks.</li>
<li>NTT Data out, Rohm in. Downside for Ibiden, but also small buying for Fasty, Terumo, Konami and others.</li>
<li>Renesas announces details of its Wolfspeed restructuring deal which includes kitchen sinking the losses this year.</li>
</ul>


Masayoshi Son is floating a $1trn AI factory in Arizona in exchange for tax breaks.
NTT Data out, Rohm in. Downside for Ibiden, but also small buying for Fasty, Terumo, Konami and others.
Renesas announces details of its Wolfspeed restructuring deal which includes kitchen sinking the losses this year.


Japan Morning Connection: US Directly Attacks Iran and Requests Japan to Spend 5% of GDP on Defense

Japan

NEC Corporation manufactures and markets computers, telecommunication equipment, electronic devices, semiconductors, and software.  The Company's products include printers, modems, cellular phones, plasma display panels (PDP), network systems, memory, integrated circuits (IC), thin film transistor-liquid crystal display (TFT-LCD), and printed circuit boards (PCB). NEC operates worldwide.

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NEC Corp (6701 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: EU Trade Deal Should Help JP Names with High European Exposure Gain

Screen's numbers were a miss which might open a buy the dip opportunity. Reaction to Shin Etsu guidance may have been excessive. Names with high EU...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Mixed Tape for Semi's with AI up and Power and Industrial Down Further

Big moves lower for power semi peers should see JP names lower, Intel failing to impress may follow through to Ibiden, IBM slumped but analyst...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Japan Set for Wobbly Start on Tariff Threats but Impact Likely Short Lived

Wolfspeed files for Chapter 11; Short interest in Japanese autos rises ahead of US trade deal; Potential for space sector to gain attention before...

Andrew Jackson

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

Japan Morning Connection: US Directly Attacks Iran and Requests Japan to Spend 5% of GDP on Defense

Defense related should be supported by reports on GDP defense spending along with Trump's move to directly bomb Iranian nuclear sites. Masayoshi...

Andrew Jackson

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Japan Morning Connection: EU Trade Deal Should Help JP Names with High European Exposure Gain

Screen's numbers were a miss which might open a buy the dip opportunity. Reaction to Shin Etsu guidance may have been excessive. Names with high EU...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Mixed Tape for Semi's with AI up and Power and Industrial Down Further

Big moves lower for power semi peers should see JP names lower, Intel failing to impress may follow through to Ibiden, IBM slumped but analyst...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Japan Set for Wobbly Start on Tariff Threats but Impact Likely Short Lived

​Wolfspeed files for Chapter 11; Short interest in Japanese autos rises ahead of US trade deal; Potential for space sector to gain attention before...

Andrew Jackson

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

Japan Morning Connection: US Directly Attacks Iran and Requests Japan to Spend 5% of GDP on Defense

Defense related should be supported by reports on GDP defense spending along with Trump's move to directly bomb Iranian nuclear sites. Masayoshi...

Andrew Jackson

Wolfspeed files for Chapter 11; Short interest in Japanese autos rises ahead of US trade deal; Potential for space sector to gain attention before...