Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

ASA Capital Management

ASA Capital Management is a boutique Research and Investment Advisory firm focusing on primary research in India. ASA provides bespoke research services to Institutional Clients with a focus on due diligence backed with primary research, Field Trips & Channel Checks.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<p>This insight aims to track data related to discretionary spends on consumer goods. It covers a range of aspects - from the adoption of new payment methods, consumer income growth and savings data, freight and travel, rural development and agriculture to the availability of finance and liquidity. </p>
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<p>The Indicators for the month of July indicate a further recovery in most aspects of the economy. The rural economy still continues to be the main engine and is expected to remain so.</p>
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<p>The data tracker is a joint initiative done along with insight provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nitin-mangal" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1988" rel="noopener">Nitin Mangal.</a></p>
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This insight aims to track data related to discretionary spends on consumer goods. It covers a range of aspects - from the adoption of new payment methods, consumer income growth and savings data, freight and travel, rural development and agriculture to the availability of finance and liquidity. 


The Indicators for the month of July indicate a further recovery in most aspects of the economy. The rural economy still continues to be the main engine and is expected to remain so.





The data tracker is a joint initiative done along with insight provider Nitin Mangal.








Alternative Data | India Consumer Tracker - Recovery Continues

<p>This tracker provides important data points released for the month of April / May 2020. For more information on the data tracker please refer to our insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alternative-data-india-consumer-tracking-recovery-if-and-when-it-comes" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39289" rel="noopener">Alternative Data | India Consumer - Tracking Recovery if and when It Comes</a>.</p>
<p>Our high-frequency and alternative indicators do indicate a gradual uptick but still far below normal levels when it comes to consumer spending. There is high uncertainty regarding current employment, Rural India is expected to lead growth. </p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p><em>The data tracker is a joint initiative done along with insight provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nitin-mangal" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1988" rel="noopener">Nitin Mangal.</a></em></p>
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This tracker provides important data points released for the month of April / May 2020. For more information on the data tracker please refer to our insight Alternative Data | India Consumer - Tracking Recovery if and when It Comes.
Our high-frequency and alternative indicators do indicate a gradual uptick but still far below normal levels when it comes to consumer spending. There is high uncertainty regarding current employment, Rural India is expected to lead growth. 

The data tracker is a joint initiative done along with insight provider Nitin Mangal.


Alternative Data | India Consumer Tracker - Rural India to Lead Growth

Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Macroeconomics

<p>The previous insight related to our Covid-19 coverage, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/covid-19-dull-economic-package-lock-down-4-0-consequences" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39665" rel="noopener">Covid-19: Dull Economic Package, Lock-Down 4.0 Consequences</a> highlighted that the economy is inching towards relaxation. The government announced the three stages of unlocking beginning June, that will gradually open up all the industries, month by month.</p><p>In this insight, we justify whether the timing of the unlock announced was a high gamble, and who would be the likely beneficiaries given the current crisis scenario</p>

The previous insight related to our Covid-19 coverage, Covid-19: Dull Economic Package, Lock-Down 4.0 Consequences highlighted that the economy is inching towards relaxation. The government announced the three stages of unlocking beginning June, that will gradually open up all the industries, month by month.In this insight, we justify whether the timing of the unlock announced was a high gamble, and who would be the likely beneficiaries given the current crisis scenario

Unlock 1 Ill-Effects: Boon for the Consumer Discretionary?

<p>We are pleased to introduce a monthly data tracker that collects information from various regular and alternative sources. The objective of this data tracker is to gauge the strength and pace of COVID-19 recovery if and when it arrives. Since this is the first report in our monthly series, we will share the source and interpretation of each data point used with our readers. Our subsequent reports will only share data points along with an analysis of the same. Any suggestions of data to be included in our future reports are welcomed, we shall try and accommodate the same. </p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p><em>The data tracker is a joint initiative done along with insight provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nitin-mangal" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1988" rel="noopener">Nitin Mangal</a> and will be published on or between the 15th to the 17th of every month.</em></p>
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We are pleased to introduce a monthly data tracker that collects information from various regular and alternative sources. The objective of this data tracker is to gauge the strength and pace of COVID-19 recovery if and when it arrives. Since this is the first report in our monthly series, we will share the source and interpretation of each data point used with our readers. Our subsequent reports will only share data points along with an analysis of the same. Any suggestions of data to be included in our future reports are welcomed, we shall try and accommodate the same. 

The data tracker is a joint initiative done along with insight provider Nitin Mangal and will be published on or between the 15th to the 17th of every month.


Alternative Data | India Consumer - Tracking Recovery if and when It Comes

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>We continue to believe global equities (ACWI-US) are likely to test the recent low made on March 23, with an undercut of roughly 10% also in the cards. This expectation is supported by price action during prior major waterfall declines in past recessionary periods. With the global economy likely headed for a recession (or worse) we believe it is important to stay with the Sectors that have been outperforming amid the COVID-19 pandemic as we believe they are likely to continue outperforming. That means we are sticking primarily with Staples, Health Care, and Technology. We are also expanding our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors.</p>

We continue to believe global equities (ACWI-US) are likely to test the recent low made on March 23, with an undercut of roughly 10% also in the cards. This expectation is supported by price action during prior major waterfall declines in past recessionary periods. With the global economy likely headed for a recession (or worse) we believe it is important to stay with the Sectors that have been outperforming amid the COVID-19 pandemic as we believe they are likely to continue outperforming. That means we are sticking primarily with Staples, Health Care, and Technology. We are also expanding our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors.

Global Equities (ACWI-US) Likely to Retest the March Low

India

Nestle India Limited is the Indian subsidiary of the Swiss multinational company Nestlé, operating as a prominent player in India's Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) industry. The company manufactures and sells a diverse range of food products, beverages, chocolates, and confectioneries, with key brands including Maggi, Nescafé, and KitKat. Nestle India Limited was incorporated on March 28, 1959, and is headquartered in Gurugram, Haryana, India.

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Nestle India (NEST IN)

Alternative Data | India Consumer Tracker - Recovery Continues

This insight aims to track data related to discretionary spends on consumer goods. It covers a range of aspects - from the adoption of new payment...

Pranav Bhavsar

Alternative Data | India Consumer Tracker - Rural India to Lead Growth

This tracker provides important data points released for the month of April / May 2020. For more information on the data tracker please refer to...

Pranav Bhavsar

Unlock 1 Ill-Effects: Boon for the Consumer Discretionary?

The previous insight related to our Covid-19 coverage, Covid-19: Dull Economic Package, Lock-Down 4.0 Consequences highlighted that the economy is...

Nitin Mangal

Alternative Data | India Consumer - Tracking Recovery if and when It Comes

We are pleased to introduce a monthly data tracker that collects information from various regular and alternative sources. The objective of this...

Pranav Bhavsar

Global Equities (ACWI-US) Likely to Retest the March Low

We continue to believe global equities (ACWI-US) are likely to test the recent low made on March 23, with an undercut of roughly 10% also in the...

Vermilion Research

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