President, Vision Research

Robert C Prather Jr

President

Vision Research

Vision Research was formed in 2004 with the vision of generating the best possible fundamental analysis and investment research for smid cap US equities. In 2008, we broadened our coverage to include mid/large cap US stocks.  After researching a  few ideas outside the US each year for a number of years, we launched a dedicated non-US equity product at the end of 2015.  This was followed by the introduction of a product focused on IPOs in mid-2017.

Fundamental Insight

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Enterprise storage hardware market faces numerous headwinds and increasing commoditization</li>
<li>STaaS is cannibalistic, facing increasing competition, and decelerated in the MRQ</li>
<li>Each of the last 2 quarters have seen some meaningful, non-recurring revenues lead to PSTG beating estimates</li>
</ul>


Enterprise storage hardware market faces numerous headwinds and increasing commoditization
STaaS is cannibalistic, facing increasing competition, and decelerated in the MRQ
Each of the last 2 quarters have seen some meaningful, non-recurring revenues lead to PSTG beating estimates


Pure Storage (PSTG): Market Leader Facing Commoditization of Its Products

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We continue to see signs of improving risk appetites alongside healthy market dynamics. As a result, our outlook remains constructive. A breakout to new highs in the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Russell Micro-Caps (IWC), above $234.50 and $159, would likely cause us to shift to an outright bullish stance. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Technology, and Health Care.

We continue to see signs of improving risk appetites alongside healthy market dynamics. As a result, our outlook remains constructive. A breakout to new highs in the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Russell Micro-Caps (IWC), above $234.50 and $159, would likely cause us to shift to an outright bullish stance. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Technology, and Health Care.

U.S. Yields Testing Support Ahead Of FOMC Meeting

We are beginning to see early signs of rotations back into more risk-on areas of the equity market -- a bullish sign for the broad market. Short-term outperformance and constructive consolidation/bottoming patterns are evident within biotech (IBB, XBI), small- and micro-caps (IWM, IWC), and emerging markets (EEM). This only adds to our positive outlook for the weeks and months ahead; continue to buy pullbacks.

We are beginning to see early signs of rotations back into more risk-on areas of the equity market -- a bullish sign for the broad market. Short-term outperformance and constructive consolidation/bottoming patterns are evident within biotech (IBB, XBI), small- and micro-caps (IWM, IWC), and emerging markets (EEM). This only adds to our positive outlook for the weeks and months ahead; continue to buy pullbacks.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Risk-On Rotations Vs. Weaker Seasonality; Russell 2000, Biotech, EM Improving

Market dynamics have deteriorated and are now much more mixed overall. Deteriorating signals include RS improvement for defensive Sectors, RS deterioration for small-caps, and the US dollar breaking above 92. Despite this mild deterioration in market dynamics, there are plenty of indicators that remain positive. This tells us any weakness should be treated as a buying opportunity and our outlook remains constructive for the months ahead.

Market dynamics have deteriorated and are now much more mixed overall. Deteriorating signals include RS improvement for defensive Sectors, RS deterioration for small-caps, and the US dollar breaking above 92. Despite this mild deterioration in market dynamics, there are plenty of indicators that remain positive. This tells us any weakness should be treated as a buying opportunity and our outlook remains constructive for the months ahead.

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

This note is a followup to our deep dive on Nutanix from December. The quarter’s results were consistent with our long thesis, and the near 30% selloff in shares is egregious given the reasons behind the guidance cut (faster subscription transition and corona-virus driven uncertainty. We would point towards the upcoming Investor Day on March 26 as the next catalyst in the event path when management will likely provide updated guidance.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

This note is a followup to our deep dive on Nutanix from December. The quarter’s results were consistent with our long thesis, and the near 30% selloff in shares is egregious given the reasons behind the guidance cut (faster subscription transition and corona-virus driven uncertainty. We would point towards the upcoming Investor Day on March 26 as the next catalyst in the event path when management will likely provide updated guidance.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Nutanix: Subscription Transition Meets Corona Virus? Huh?

United States

NetApp, Inc. provides storage and data management solutions. The Company's storage solutions include specialized hardware, software, and services that provide storage management for open network environments. NetApp  serves enterprises, government agencies, and universities worldwide.

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Netapp Inc (NTAP US)

Pure Storage (PSTG): Market Leader Facing Commoditization of Its Products

Market share losses are likely occurring and the "recurring revenue STaaS" story may be decelerating amidst competition, pricing pressure, and...

Robert C Prather Jr

U.S. Yields Testing Support Ahead Of FOMC Meeting

We continue to see signs of improving risk appetites alongside healthy market dynamics. As a result, our outlook remains constructive.

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Risk-On Rotations Vs. Weaker Seasonality; Russell 2000, Biotech, EM Improving

We are seeing signs of rotations back into more risk-on areas of the equity market -- a bullish sign for the broad market. Add to biotech, small-...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading U.S. Staples To Market Weight

Despite mild deterioration in market dynamics, there are plenty of indicators that remain positive and our outlook remains constructive for the...

Vermilion Research

Nutanix: Subscription Transition Meets Corona Virus? Huh?

This note is a followup to our deep dive on Nutanix from December. The quarter’s results were consistent with our long thesis, and the near 30%...

Aaron Gabin

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