Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 8.45% in September and 60.89% and 62.80% YTD and since launch one year ago.  The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by more than 40%.</li>
<li>The portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 3.23 YTD and has generated more than 40% of its returns from stock-picking (alpha).  Its beta is low at only 1.17.</li>
<li>At the end of September, we increased exposure to AI and robotics and sold positions in the consumer and finance sectors.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 8.45% in September and 60.89% and 62.80% YTD and since launch one year ago.  The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by more than 40%.
The portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 3.23 YTD and has generated more than 40% of its returns from stock-picking (alpha).  Its beta is low at only 1.17.
At the end of September, we increased exposure to AI and robotics and sold positions in the consumer and finance sectors.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (September 2025)

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong's secular bull market gained after DeepSeek's announcement ignited shares in the tech sector.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingsoft-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:492:1" rel="noopener">Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK)</a> broke out to new high after it announced its DAU for WPS exceeded 100mm.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingsoft-cloud-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36647:1" rel="noopener">Kingsoft Cloud Holdings (3896 HK)</a> is benefiting from the AI rally.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> broke out to an all-time high after announcing it would offer its ADA service for free. The move caused <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla (TSLA US)</a> shares to fall.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong's secular bull market gained after DeepSeek's announcement ignited shares in the tech sector.

Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK) broke out to new high after it announced its DAU for WPS exceeded 100mm.  Kingsoft Cloud Holdings (3896 HK) is benefiting from the AI rally.

BYD (1211 HK) broke out to an all-time high after announcing it would offer its ADA service for free. The move caused Tesla (TSLA US) shares to fall.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (February 11)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.</li>
<li>As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.</li>
<li>China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.
As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.
China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.


EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng Internet &amp; IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).</li>
<li>The reference period is now complete. We have presented our final expectations in this insight.</li>
<li>We expect five ADDs/DELs and we estimate one-way flows of ~US$202mn.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Internet &amp; IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
The reference period is now complete. We have presented our final expectations in this insight.
We expect five ADDs/DELs and we estimate one-way flows of ~US$202mn.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Sep26: Final Ranks; Five Changes Expected

The MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US have managed to break above their respective 200-day moving averages, and are now bumping up against overhead resistance.  Supportive of a bottoming global market, cyclical Sectors are emerging as leadership. We examine the technical state of major developed and EM markets and highlight in today’s report and highlight attractive and actionable stocks within the Materials, Manufacturing, and Technology sectors.

The MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US have managed to break above their respective 200-day moving averages, and are now bumping up against overhead resistance.  Supportive of a bottoming global market, cyclical Sectors are emerging as leadership. We examine the technical state of major developed and EM markets and highlight in today’s report and highlight attractive and actionable stocks within the Materials, Manufacturing, and Technology sectors.

Global Bottoming Process Continues; Remain Overweight China

China

NetDragon Websoft is a global leader in online community development, with a strong focus on online gaming and educational technology. The company develops and operates online games like Eudemons Online and Conquer Online, and provides online education platforms and smart classroom solutions, often integrating AI and VR technologies through its subsidiary Mynd.ai. It was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Fuzhou, China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

NetDragon Websoft (777 HK)

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (September 2025)

Due to the sudden escalation of US/China tensions we have decided to reduce AI and other risk exposure in the Hong Kong Alpha portfolio at the open...

David Mudd

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (February 11)

HK stocks gained momentum after the DeepSeek announcement. Kingsoft shares broke out to new highs after announcing that WPS had DAUs of 100mm. BYD...

David Mudd

EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

EM vs. EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the $DXY peaked in November 2022. If the DXY remains below...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Sep26: Final Ranks; Five Changes Expected

Knowledge Atlas Technology (2513 HK) has an expected inflow size of ~S$64mn. This name is nearly up 3x in the last 3-months.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Global Bottoming Process Continues; Remain Overweight China

The MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US have managed to break above their respective 200-day moving averages, and are now bumping up against overhead...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)