Global TMT analyst with Asia ex-Japan focus.

Mitchell Kim

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>I have turned more positive on Tencent shares recently (please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tencent-700-hk-when-to-catch-a-falling-knife" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:55148" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK): When to Catch a Falling Knife</a>) after the share price plummeted from the peak in March.  While we may still see some residual regulatory measures rumbling through the China tech industry after the September 1 adoption of the new Data Privacy Law, Tencent's more reasonable value should mitigate further downside risks, in my view. </p><p><em>Three reasons why I am able to exhale comfortably on Tencent: </em></p><ul>
<li>
<strong>Tencent's overall revenue grew 20% YoY. </strong> This growth would normally be mediocre by Tencent's standards, but in comparison to the extraordinary growth year 2020, this is solid.  </li>
<li>
<strong>Fintech business remains unencumbered. </strong> Fintech now makes up 30% of Tencent's total revenues and the segment gross margin was 32%, an increase of 3.1% points. </li>
<li>
<strong>Tencent shares trade at 23.5x FY21 consensus earnings.</strong> This is inexpensive and suggests that at least some of the regulatory risks are priced in.  </li>
</ul><p><strong>The key risk remains on whether Tencent would be required to transfer user data as part of the data privacy law measures.  I do not believe this is the case. </strong>        </p>

I have turned more positive on Tencent shares recently (please see Tencent (700 HK): When to Catch a Falling Knife) after the share price plummeted from the peak in March.  While we may still see some residual regulatory measures rumbling through the China tech industry after the September 1 adoption of the new Data Privacy Law, Tencent's more reasonable value should mitigate further downside risks, in my view. Three reasons why I am able to exhale comfortably on Tencent: 

Tencent's overall revenue grew 20% YoY.  This growth would normally be mediocre by Tencent's standards, but in comparison to the extraordinary growth year 2020, this is solid.  

Fintech business remains unencumbered.  Fintech now makes up 30% of Tencent's total revenues and the segment gross margin was 32%, an increase of 3.1% points. 

Tencent shares trade at 23.5x FY21 consensus earnings. This is inexpensive and suggests that at least some of the regulatory risks are priced in.  
The key risk remains on whether Tencent would be required to transfer user data as part of the data privacy law measures.  I do not believe this is the case.         

Tencent (700 HK): No Longer Roaring, but the Price Is Right

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> announced yet another record set of quarterly results last night, with +159% growth in total GAAP revenues to US$2,280.6m. This marks the 12th consecutive quarter of triple-digit growth in revenues, which deserves a standing ovation</p>
<p>The company's digital entertainment business continued to thrive, with quarterly active users (QAU) increasing by +45% YoY and importantly quarterly paying users increasing +85% YoY in 2Q2021, and generating positive EBITDA of US$740.9m.</p>
<p>The quarterly paying users represented a higher portion of users in 2Q2021 and Adjusted EBITDA as a portion of bookings improved to 62.8% for 2Q2021 versus 60.9% in 2Q2020.</p>
<p>Garena's self-developed global hit game <em>Free Fire </em>reached over 1bn downloads on Google Play, with the game ranking number three globally by average monthly users for mobile games in 2Q2021, according to App Annie, with record peak daily users.</p>
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<p>The company's e-commerce business continued to see rapid growth with gross orders up by +127% YoY to 1.4bn orders and gross merchandise value up by +87.5% YoY to US$15bn whilst the adjusted EBITDA loss per order decreased by -19.6% YoY.</p>
<p>Shopee was the second most downloaded app on Google Play and the second most downloaded app across Google Play and iOS app stores combined forte shopping category globally in 2Q2021, according to App Annie.</p>
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<p>In Brazil, where Shopee was launched in late 2019, it ranked first in the shopping category by downloads, and total time spent in-app, as well as ranking second in terms of monthly active users (MAU) for 2Q2021.</p>
<p> In Brazil, it has already made good progress with more monthly active users than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> and stands in the number two position after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercadolibre-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27954:1" rel="noopener">MercadoLibre Inc (MELI US)</a> in terms of active users.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> also continued to make significant progress in digital financial services through the adoption of SeaMoney and ShopeePay, with US$4.1bn in total payment volume in its mobile wallet in 2Q2021, up nearly +150% YoY. It also saw an increase of +109% in quarterly paying users in 2Q2021. </p>
<p>The company continues to grow its ShopeeFood business in Indonesia and Vietnam and has seen a very strong performance and positive reception from users as well as driver communities in both markets in 2Q2021, with a strong focus on the quality of services to users.</p>
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<p>The company booked an overall gross profit increase of +364% YoY. From a non-GAAP EBITDA perspective, the company booked an EBITDA loss of (US$24.1m) versus an EBITDA profit of US$7.7m.</p>
<p>From a segmental point of view, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> booked a positive EBITDA of US$740.9m for its digital entertainment segment in 2Q2021 versus US436.2m last year in the same period, an increase of +69.8% YoY. </p>
<p>The e-commerce segment booked an EBITDA loss of (US$579.8m) in 2Q2021 versus a loss of (US$313.7m) last year, an increase in loss of +84.8% YoY.</p>
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<section class="figure">These look like yet another blow away set of numbers for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>, despite the company booking a marginally higher loss. It is all too easy to take a negative view on a high-growth company such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> but most negative arguments from analysts tinker with the quarterly minutiae and are somehow blind to the longer-term positive story and the company's growth model.</section>
</section>
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<section class="figure">Management has also raised its full-year guidance, which is now well above analyst expectations. The stock reacted positively to the results breaking out above US$300 to close at a new record close. We remain positive on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>, which now trades on 10.5x FY22E EV/Sales and 8x FY23E EV/sales, which may look rich but is justified by superior growth to its peers, with e-commerce and digital finance fuelled by the company's gaming business. </section>
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Sea Ltd (SE US) announced yet another record set of quarterly results last night, with +159% growth in total GAAP revenues to US$2,280.6m. This marks the 12th consecutive quarter of triple-digit growth in revenues, which deserves a standing ovation
The company's digital entertainment business continued to thrive, with quarterly active users (QAU) increasing by +45% YoY and importantly quarterly paying users increasing +85% YoY in 2Q2021, and generating positive EBITDA of US$740.9m.
The quarterly paying users represented a higher portion of users in 2Q2021 and Adjusted EBITDA as a portion of bookings improved to 62.8% for 2Q2021 versus 60.9% in 2Q2020.
Garena's self-developed global hit game Free Fire reached over 1bn downloads on Google Play, with the game ranking number three globally by average monthly users for mobile games in 2Q2021, according to App Annie, with record peak daily users.

The company's e-commerce business continued to see rapid growth with gross orders up by +127% YoY to 1.4bn orders and gross merchandise value up by +87.5% YoY to US$15bn whilst the adjusted EBITDA loss per order decreased by -19.6% YoY.
Shopee was the second most downloaded app on Google Play and the second most downloaded app across Google Play and iOS app stores combined forte shopping category globally in 2Q2021, according to App Annie.

In Brazil, where Shopee was launched in late 2019, it ranked first in the shopping category by downloads, and total time spent in-app, as well as ranking second in terms of monthly active users (MAU) for 2Q2021.
 In Brazil, it has already made good progress with more monthly active users than Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) and Alibaba Group (BABA US) and stands in the number two position after MercadoLibre Inc (MELI US) in terms of active users.
Sea Ltd (SE US) also continued to make significant progress in digital financial services through the adoption of SeaMoney and ShopeePay, with US$4.1bn in total payment volume in its mobile wallet in 2Q2021, up nearly +150% YoY. It also saw an increase of +109% in quarterly paying users in 2Q2021. 
The company continues to grow its ShopeeFood business in Indonesia and Vietnam and has seen a very strong performance and positive reception from users as well as driver communities in both markets in 2Q2021, with a strong focus on the quality of services to users.


The company booked an overall gross profit increase of +364% YoY. From a non-GAAP EBITDA perspective, the company booked an EBITDA loss of (US$24.1m) versus an EBITDA profit of US$7.7m.
From a segmental point of view, Sea Ltd (SE US) booked a positive EBITDA of US$740.9m for its digital entertainment segment in 2Q2021 versus US436.2m last year in the same period, an increase of +69.8% YoY. 
The e-commerce segment booked an EBITDA loss of (US$579.8m) in 2Q2021 versus a loss of (US$313.7m) last year, an increase in loss of +84.8% YoY.


These look like yet another blow away set of numbers for Sea Ltd (SE US), despite the company booking a marginally higher loss. It is all too easy to take a negative view on a high-growth company such as Sea Ltd (SE US) but most negative arguments from analysts tinker with the quarterly minutiae and are somehow blind to the longer-term positive story and the company's growth model.




Management has also raised its full-year guidance, which is now well above analyst expectations. The stock reacted positively to the results breaking out above US$300 to close at a new record close. We remain positive on Sea Ltd (SE US), which now trades on 10.5x FY22E EV/Sales and 8x FY23E EV/sales, which may look rich but is justified by superior growth to its peers, with e-commerce and digital finance fuelled by the company's gaming business. 














Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<p>Most Chinese companies will announce their half yearly results in the next couple of weeks. Some will announce their interim dividends as well.</p><p>With most of the dividends for 2021 having already gone ex, we see little upside/downside in the HSCEI 2021 dividend futures contract.</p><p>The HSCEI 2022 dividend futures are another story though. There are a lot of potential events that could change the fair value of the futures. Taking into account all the changes expected to take place by the December rebalance, we see the current dividend futures market trading around 6 index points higher than our fair value. In terms of future events, we find a lot more potential negative catalysts as compared to positive catalysts.</p><p>We recommend selling the HSCEI 2022 dividend futures at 245 or higher (equivalent to around -25 on the HSCEI 2021/22 dividend steepener) and buying the dividend futures at 230 or lower. These estimates will change as the CNYHKD fx rates move around and some of the catalysts come to pass.</p>

Most Chinese companies will announce their half yearly results in the next couple of weeks. Some will announce their interim dividends as well.With most of the dividends for 2021 having already gone ex, we see little upside/downside in the HSCEI 2021 dividend futures contract.The HSCEI 2022 dividend futures are another story though. There are a lot of potential events that could change the fair value of the futures. Taking into account all the changes expected to take place by the December rebalance, we see the current dividend futures market trading around 6 index points higher than our fair value. In terms of future events, we find a lot more potential negative catalysts as compared to positive catalysts.We recommend selling the HSCEI 2022 dividend futures at 245 or higher (equivalent to around -25 on the HSCEI 2021/22 dividend steepener) and buying the dividend futures at 230 or lower. These estimates will change as the CNYHKD fx rates move around and some of the catalysts come to pass.

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Fair Value & Catalysts Point to Downside for 2022

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices. </p><p><strong><em>Companies mentioned this week:</em></strong></p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc-83a27302-cd7d-4e6a-a1de-bcf93eb022c3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32215:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili (9626 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foxconn-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11950:1" rel="noopener">Foxconn Technology (2354 TT)</a></p>

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices. Companies mentioned this week:Tencent (700 HK), NetEase (9999 HK), Bilibili (9626 HK), Foxconn Technology (2354 TT)

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 13 August 2021

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<p>Following the Xinhua News Agency's article which once dubbed online gaming as spiritual opium two days ago on August 3rd, today one article on the Security Times proposed to remove the tax rebate for online gaming companies. We look at the current tax benefit for the online gaming companies and are of the view that the proposal is sensible but financial impact will be minor on the established game studio and operators. </p>

Following the Xinhua News Agency's article which once dubbed online gaming as spiritual opium two days ago on August 3rd, today one article on the Security Times proposed to remove the tax rebate for online gaming companies. We look at the current tax benefit for the online gaming companies and are of the view that the proposal is sensible but financial impact will be minor on the established game studio and operators. 

Tencent: Assessment of New Tax Proposal for Game Industry

China

NetEase, Inc. is an Internet technology company that develops applications, services and other Internet technologies in China. The Company's core businesses consist of email service, web portal and online entertainment, including online gaming services. NetEase also offers online advertising, search, mobile applications and e-commerce.

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NetEase Inc (NTES US)

Tencent (700 HK): No Longer Roaring, but the Price Is Right

Tencent's engine is no longer roaring but current valuations appear reasonable enough to weather through the regulatory uncertainty. 2Q was a...

Mitchell Kim

Sea Ltd (SE US) - Standing Ovation

Sea Ltd released another record quarterly result affirming its leading position in gaming and e-commerce in SE Asia, with some positive signals...

Angus Mackintosh

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Fair Value & Catalysts Point to Downside for 2022

We see around 6 points of downside on the HSCEI 2022 dividend futures from the last traded price. There are more negative catalysts for the 2022...

Brian Freitas

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 13 August 2021

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity...

Wium Malan, CFA

Tencent: Assessment of New Tax Proposal for Game Industry

We look at the current tax benefit for the online gaming companies and are of the view that the proposal is sensible but the financial impact will...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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