Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

In this insight, we provide an updated valuation of the Krafton IPO, taking into account the changes the comps' prices and adjusting for lower IPO offering.  We also discuss other recent major events which could impact the Krafton IPO. <div class="content-highlight">We slightly lowered our base case valuation of Krafton by 2% to an implied market cap of 23 trillion won or 455,942 won per share, based on 21.3x EV/EBITDA (2022E). Our base case is just 2% above the mid-point of the IPO price range 400,000 won to 498,000 won. Given the lack of upside, we continue to maintain our stance of AVOID for this IPO. </div>

In this insight, we provide an updated valuation of the Krafton IPO, taking into account the changes the comps' prices and adjusting for lower IPO offering.  We also discuss other recent major events which could impact the Krafton IPO. We slightly lowered our base case valuation of Krafton by 2% to an implied market cap of 23 trillion won or 455,942 won per share, based on 21.3x EV/EBITDA (2022E). Our base case is just 2% above the mid-point of the IPO price range 400,000 won to 498,000 won. Given the lack of upside, we continue to maintain our stance of AVOID for this IPO. 

An Updated Valuation of the Krafton IPO & Major Recent Events Impacting the Company

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Offering price &amp; size
Krafton submitted a correction report to the Financial Supervisory Service on the afternoon yesterday. It lowered the indicative price band from ₩458,000~557,000 to ₩400,000~498,000 by about 10%. The newly adjusted price band now implies a market cap range at ₩19.56~24.35T.










Pricing
Low, previous
High, previous
Low, adjusted
High, adjusted


Price
₩458,000
₩557,000
₩400,000
₩498,000


Base deal size
₩4,607.6B
₩5,603.5B
₩3,461.7B
₩4,309.8B


- Institutional allotment
₩2,534.2B
₩3,082.0B
₩1,903.9B
₩2,370.4B


Implied market cap
₩23,039.3B
₩28,019.4B
₩19,559.2B
₩24,351.2B


- Discount
32.40%
17.79%
30.93%
14.01%

Source: DART


In addition, the issuance of new shares was also reduced from 7.03 million shares to 5.62 million shares. Therefore, based on the lower end of the public offering band, the offering size decreased by ₩1.2T from ₩4.6T to ₩3.5T.  However, the secondary offering volume remains the same at 3.03 million shares. So, the split ratio is now 0.65 (primary) to 0.35 (secondary).








Offering size
Previous
Adjusted


Pre-IPO SO
43,274,070
43,274,070


Offering
10,060,230
8,654,230


- % of SO
23.25%
20.00%


- Institutional allotment
55.00~75.00%
55.00~75.00%


Primary %
69.88%
64.99%


Secondary %
30.12%
35.01%


Post-IPO shares outstanding
50,304,070
48,898,070


Capital increase rate
16.25%
13.00%


Dilution
13.98%
11.50%

Source: DART


Schedule

Krafton will open the book on July 14 and keep it open until July 27. After finalizing the offering price on July 29, we will see subscriptions on August 2. After that, August 5 is the payment date, and listing on the stock market will be completed in mid-August.
There was a time difference of about a week with Kakao Bank, whose subscription will fall on July 26.








Schedule
Previous
Adjusted


Book open
2021. 6. 28
2021. 7. 14


Book close
2021. 7. 9
2021. 7. 27


Allotment
2021. 7. 12
2021. 7. 29


Subscription
2021. 7. 14
2021. 8. 2


Payment
2021. 7. 19
2021. 8. 5


Listing
TBA
TBA

Source: DART


Valuation

The core of this revised report is the recalculation of the offering price. First, the group of comparative companies was completely changed. Krafton deleted all overseas companies, including Walt Disney and Warner Music, and reduced the comparative group to four domestic game companies: NCsoft, Netmarble, Kakao Games, and Pearl Abyss.
The average price-to-earnings ratio (PER) to last year's net income for the comparative group was 40.4 times. The average PER for the first quarter of this year on an annualized basis was calculated to be 47.2 times. An average of 43.8x was presented as the applied PER. This is slightly lower than the previous PER of 45.2x, which was initially controversial.











FY2020 net earnings based P/E
Note
NCSoft Corp
Netmarble Corp
Kakao Games Corp
PearlAbyss Corp


Reference full market cap: MIN[1M Avg, 1W Avg, 1D Close]
(A)
₩18,068.2B
₩11,216.9B
₩4,111.6B
₩4,086.8B


FY2020 annual net earnings to controlling stake
(B)
₩587.4B
₩312.9B
₩86.0B
₩86.6B


P/E
(C)=(A)/(B)
30.76x
35.85x
47.82x
47.19x


Average P/E
-
40.41x

Source: DART













FY2021 1Q based annualized net earnings based P/E
Note
NCSoft Corp
Netmarble Corp
Kakao Games Corp
PearlAbyss Corp


Reference full market cap: MIN[1M Avg, 1W Avg, 1D Close]
(A)
₩18,068.2B
₩11,216.9B
₩4,111.6B
₩4,086.8B


FY2021 1Q based annualized net earnings to controlling stake
(B)
₩323.5B
₩225.7B
₩83.0B
₩121.8B


P/E
(C)=(A)/(B)
55.85x
49.70x
49.52x
33.56x


Average P/E
-
47.16x

Source: DART


Krafton also slightly lowered the net profit applied to the IPO price.
They derived a simple average value by adding the annualized net profit based on the net profit in the first quarter of this year and last year's net profit. Through this, the applied net profitdecreased from ₩776B to ₩666B. By lowering the applied NP and the applied PER multiple together, the company's pre-discount enterprise value, which was initially calculated at ₩35T, dropped by 17% to ₩29T.
Here, a discount rate of 14.0 to 30.9% was applied to calculate the new indicative price band.








P/E valuation
Note
Krafton


FY2020 annual net earnings to controlling stake
(A)
₩556.3B


FY2021 1Q net earnings to controlling stake
(B)
₩194.0B


FY2021 1Q based annualized net earnings to controlling stake
(C) = (B) * 4
₩776.1B


Net earnings to controlling stake used in the valuation
(D) = [(A) + (C)]/2
₩666.2B


Average P/E based on FY2020 annual net earnings to controlling stake
(E)
40.40x


Average P/E based on FY2021 1Q based annualized net earnings to controlling stake
(F)
47.20x


Reference P/E
(G) = [(E) + (F)]/2
43.80x


Full market cap
(H) = (D) * (G)
₩29,166.2B


Price per share
(I) = (H)/post-IPO SO
₩579,153


Source: DART










Krafton IPO Offering Price/​Size Adjustment & Valuation Re-Review

The issue of the Financial Supervisory Service's request for correction of Krafton's securities declaration has not subsided.In this regard, local media reports are coming out one after another about the real reason the FSS requested.<h2>Simple omission in the transfer of title?</h2>First, a domestic newspaper published an article two days ago that the reason for the correction request by the Financial Supervisory Service was not the public offering price.According to this newspaper, the Financial Supervisory Service's request to Krafton to revise the securities declaration was found to be due to a simple omission in the transfer of title (the act of entering the name and address in the shareholder register).<a href="https://www.asiae.co.kr/article/2021062910261787865" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Here is the link to the news article By Asia Business Daily</a>The source revealed in the article was not from the Financial Supervisory Service but from the local IB industry. In fact, the Financial Supervisory Service has not yet revealed the reason for the request to revise the Krafton IPO prospectus.Then, there is a possibility that this local IB industry official cited in this article may be from the underwriter side. They may be intending to prevent the FSS's request for amendment from leading to issues of legitimacy of the offering price.

The issue of the Financial Supervisory Service's request for correction of Krafton's securities declaration has not subsided.In this regard, local media reports are coming out one after another about the real reason the FSS requested.Simple omission in the transfer of title?First, a domestic newspaper published an article two days ago that the reason for the correction request by the Financial Supervisory Service was not the public offering price.According to this newspaper, the Financial Supervisory Service's request to Krafton to revise the securities declaration was found to be due to a simple omission in the transfer of title (the act of entering the name and address in the shareholder register).Here is the link to the news article By Asia Business DailyThe source revealed in the article was not from the Financial Supervisory Service but from the local IB industry. In fact, the Financial Supervisory Service has not yet revealed the reason for the request to revise the Krafton IPO prospectus.Then, there is a possibility that this local IB industry official cited in this article may be from the underwriter side. They may be intending to prevent the FSS's request for amendment from leading to issues of legitimacy of the offering price.

FSS's Position on Krafton IPO & The Mood of Foreign Investors Revealed by Mirae Asset

It was announced after the market close that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/big-hit-entertainment-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28959:1" rel="noopener">HYBE (352820 KS)</a> will conduct a block deal worth 850 billion won. STIC Investment will sell its 2.867 million shares of HYBE at 283,000 won to 296,400 won per share, which would be 5% and 9.3% discount to the closing price on 28 June, respectively. All in all, we believe that STIC Investment selling nearly all of its remaining shares in HYBE is not a good sign for the company. We are especially wary of HYBE's burdensome valuations and as such we would avoid this block deal.

It was announced after the market close that HYBE (352820 KS) will conduct a block deal worth 850 billion won. STIC Investment will sell its 2.867 million shares of HYBE at 283,000 won to 296,400 won per share, which would be 5% and 9.3% discount to the closing price on 28 June, respectively. All in all, we believe that STIC Investment selling nearly all of its remaining shares in HYBE is not a good sign for the company. We are especially wary of HYBE's burdensome valuations and as such we would avoid this block deal. 

A Block Deal Sale of HYBE by STIC Investment

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coway-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3022:1" rel="noopener">Coway Co Ltd (021240 KS)</a>, the leading water- and air purifier rental company in South Korea was traditionally an attractive dividend yield play until early 2020 when ownership, and strategy, changed from upstreaming cash to private equity towards investing for longer-term sustainable growth. Since mid-2020 its share price has been under pressure given doubts on management’s ability to execute on reigniting growth, as well as perceptions around domestic market share losses. Even after its recent positive share price move, post 1Q21 results, Coway is still trading on just 12.3x NTM PE which is more than one standard deviation below its 5-year historical average trading range. This implies a PEG ratio of just over 1.5x, which is certainly not demanding for a company that delivers ROEs of well above 20%, is highly cash generative, and commands leading market share in its domestic and key overseas markets. In this insight I look at recent results, and catch up with management, to look for evidence that the strategy could be working and assess whether the potential for longer-term value unlock exists.

Coway Co Ltd (021240 KS), the leading water- and air purifier rental company in South Korea was traditionally an attractive dividend yield play until early 2020 when ownership, and strategy, changed from upstreaming cash to private equity towards investing for longer-term sustainable growth. Since mid-2020 its share price has been under pressure given doubts on management’s ability to execute on reigniting growth, as well as perceptions around domestic market share losses. Even after its recent positive share price move, post 1Q21 results, Coway is still trading on just 12.3x NTM PE which is more than one standard deviation below its 5-year historical average trading range. This implies a PEG ratio of just over 1.5x, which is certainly not demanding for a company that delivers ROEs of well above 20%, is highly cash generative, and commands leading market share in its domestic and key overseas markets. In this insight I look at recent results, and catch up with management, to look for evidence that the strategy could be working and assess whether the potential for longer-term value unlock exists.

Coway: Transitioning from Dividend Play to Growth Stock

South Korea

Netmarble Corporation develops and publishes mobile games. The Company develops and publishes casual games, action, sports games, strategy, simulation games, and social casino games. Netmarble offers services worldwide.

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Netmarble (251270 KS)

An Updated Valuation of the Krafton IPO & Major Recent Events Impacting the Company

We lowered our base case valuation of Krafton by 2% to 455,942 won per share, based on 21.3x EV/EBITDA (2022E). Given the lack of upside, we...

Douglas Kim

Krafton IPO Offering Price/Size Adjustment & Valuation Re-Review

Still, the revised valuation does not seem appropriate in that it still uses distorted net profit and the discount rate doesn't reflect high...

Sanghyun Park

FSS's Position on Krafton IPO & The Mood of Foreign Investors Revealed by Mirae Asset

The FSS indeed pays attention to the offering price, but it doesn't have the authority to request a revision. Meanwhile, Mirae Asset argues that...

Sanghyun Park

A Block Deal Sale of HYBE by STIC Investment

It was announced after the market close that HYBE will conduct a block deal worth 850 billion won. We are especially wary of HYBE's burdensome...

Douglas Kim

Coway: Transitioning from Dividend Play to Growth Stock

In this insight I look at Coway’s recent results, and catch up with management, to look for evidence that the new strategy is working and whether...

Wium Malan, CFA

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Market Cap (USDm)

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An Updated Valuation of the Krafton IPO & Major Recent Events Impacting the Company

We lowered our base case valuation of Krafton by 2% to 455,942 won per share, based on 21.3x EV/EBITDA (2022E). Given the lack of upside, we...

Douglas Kim

Krafton IPO Offering Price/​Size Adjustment & Valuation Re-Review

Still, the revised valuation does not seem appropriate in that it still uses distorted net profit and the discount rate doesn't reflect high...

Sanghyun Park

FSS's Position on Krafton IPO & The Mood of Foreign Investors Revealed by Mirae Asset

The FSS indeed pays attention to the offering price, but it doesn't have the authority to request a revision. Meanwhile, Mirae Asset argues that...

Sanghyun Park

A Block Deal Sale of HYBE by STIC Investment

It was announced after the market close that HYBE will conduct a block deal worth 850 billion won. We are especially wary of HYBE's burdensome...

Douglas Kim

Coway: Transitioning from Dividend Play to Growth Stock

In this insight I look at Coway’s recent results, and catch up with management, to look for evidence that the new strategy is working and whether...

Wium Malan, CFA

Krafton IPO Offering Price/Size Adjustment & Valuation Re-Review