Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSCEI in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on XIAOMI, INNOVENT BIOLOGICS, YUM CHINA, CCB, LI AUTO, CNOOC, MEITUAN, CNOOC, Yum China, Meituan, CCB, Xiaomi, Innovent Bio, Li Auto.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSCEI in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on XIAOMI, INNOVENT BIOLOGICS, YUM CHINA, CCB, LI AUTO, CNOOC, MEITUAN, CNOOC, Yum China, Meituan, CCB, Xiaomi, Innovent Bio, Li Auto.


HSCEI Index Earning Revision (Dec): XIAOMI, INNOVENT BIOLOGICS, YUM CHINA, CCB, LI AUTO, CNOOC

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.</li>
<li>The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$50bn (US$6.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi (1810 HK)</a> is the biggest buy due to HSIII Index inclusion and capping, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> is the biggest capping sell.</li>
</ul>


The December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$50bn (US$6.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.

Xiaomi (1810 HK) is the biggest buy due to HSIII Index inclusion and capping, while Alibaba (9988 HK) is the biggest capping sell.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Dec 2025)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China</a> replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao International</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-techn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> in December. All changes are in line.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.3bn (US$811m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 2 December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics</a> is also an add to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>. The passive buying will absorb some stock from the recent placement in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao</a>. </li>
</ul>



China Hongqiao, Innovent Biologics and Yum China replace ENN Energy, Haidilao International and New Oriental Education in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December. All changes are in line.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.3bn (US$811m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 2 December.

Innovent Biologics is also an add to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). The passive buying will absorb some stock from the recent placement in China Hongqiao. 


HSCEI Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; Yum China In; Double Add for Innovent Bio

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>The official index changes and indicative weights for the December 2025 index rebal event will be announced publicly after the close on Friday 21st November 2025.</li>
<li>We continue to expect three index changes for December 2025 and we estimate there to be capping flows of US$264mn one-way.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
The official index changes and indicative weights for the December 2025 index rebal event will be announced publicly after the close on Friday 21st November 2025.
We continue to expect three index changes for December 2025 and we estimate there to be capping flows of US$264mn one-way.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec25: Three Index Change Possible; ~US$264mn One-Way; Announcement Soon

<ul>
<li>There could be 3 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> in December. Announcement is on 21 November with implementation at the close on 5 December.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have moved higher over the last few months and handily outperformed the forecast deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>There has been aggressive short covering in the forecast adds and there could be more in stocks where short interest is still a high percentage of float.</li>
</ul>


There could be 3 changes for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December. Announcement is on 21 November with implementation at the close on 5 December.
The forecast adds have moved higher over the last few months and handily outperformed the forecast deletes and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX). 
There has been aggressive short covering in the forecast adds and there could be more in stocks where short interest is still a high percentage of float.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: 3 Changes as Adds Go Up, Up & Away

China

New Oriental Education & Technology Group is a leading provider of private educational services in China, offering a comprehensive range of programs including language training, test preparation courses, and online education. The company has expanded its offerings to include livestreaming e-commerce and private label products. It was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

New Oriental Education & Technology Group (9901 HK)

New Oriental Education & Technology Group

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New Oriental Education & Technology Group (9901 HK)

HSCEI Index Earning Revision (Dec): XIAOMI, INNOVENT BIOLOGICS, YUM CHINA, CCB, LI AUTO, CNOOC

We analyzed HSCEI's consensus for Dec 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in XIAOMI (1810 HK), INNOVENT BIOLOGICS (1801 HK), YUM CHINA (9987 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Dec 2025)

The Dec rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSHKBIO indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the...

Brian Freitas

HSCEI Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; Yum China In; Double Add for Innovent Bio

3 changes for the HSCEI in December - all in line. Innovent Bio also added to the HSI. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.6%...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec25: Three Index Change Possible; ~US$264mn One-Way; Announcement Soon

We continue to expect Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) to outperform Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK) over the next few weeks.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: 3 Changes as Adds Go Up, Up & Away

There could be 3 changes for the HSCEI in Dec. Estimated turnover is 4% and round-trip trade is HK$5.15bn. Shorts have been covering in the...

Brian Freitas

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