Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

While economic recovery data may be clearest, we look to US banks’ C19 loan modifications. Most banks globally term these loans as deferral loans, and they are a new feature of banks’ balance sheets from the government actions taken early in this year. Modified loans or reschedule loans have narrowed dramatically in the most recent quarter, suggesting that the degree of stress is not worsening, and quite the contrary.

While economic recovery data may be clearest, we look to US banks’ C19 loan modifications. Most banks globally term these loans as deferral loans, and they are a new feature of banks’ balance sheets from the government actions taken early in this year. Modified loans or reschedule loans have narrowed dramatically in the most recent quarter, suggesting that the degree of stress is not worsening, and quite the contrary.

The main lever for US banks and others is credit costs. This is clear in data during the three quarters thus far this year. After the closing of economies credit costs soared and with the re-opening they have collapsed. But operationally US banks can also benefit from the steepening yield curve. The spread of 10-year US Treasuries over 1-year paper continues to expand. With vaccines, the Biden win and a better understanding of the cost-benefit on how governments reacted early this year, there is likely more risk of the yield curve remaining steep.

The main lever for US banks and others is credit costs. This is clear in data during the three quarters thus far this year. After the closing of economies credit costs soared and with the re-opening they have collapsed. But operationally US banks can also benefit from the steepening yield curve. The spread of 10-year US Treasuries over 1-year paper continues to expand. With vaccines, the Biden win and a better understanding of the cost-benefit on how governments reacted early this year, there is likely more risk of the yield curve remaining steep.

There is risk that banks will have to cancel, suspend or cut dividends. During a period of low-cost or free loans from governments and regulators to banks, it is difficult to envisage that regulators would sanction these very same banks to provide most of their earnings to shareholders. There are varying degrees of risk depending on payout ratios. Several banks around the world have reported dividend payout ratios at 70% or higher. There is more to lose at these banks, than others and this could be another source of concern, other than credit and liquidity risk. Australia’s banks seem to have all of these risks, in spades.

There is risk that banks will have to cancel, suspend or cut dividends. During a period of low-cost or free loans from governments and regulators to banks, it is difficult to envisage that regulators would sanction these very same banks to provide most of their earnings to shareholders. There are varying degrees of risk depending on payout ratios. Several banks around the world have reported dividend payout ratios at 70% or higher. There is more to lose at these banks, than others and this could be another source of concern, other than credit and liquidity risk. Australia’s banks seem to have all of these risks, in spades.

Public Relations and Social Media Manager, Dechert LLP

Peggy Heffner

Public Relations and Social Media Manager

Dechert is a global specialist law firm

Dechert LLP

Dechert is a global specialist law firm.
Focused on sectors with the greatest complexities, legal intricacies and highest regulatory demands, we excel in delivering practical commercial judgment and deep legal expertise for high-stakes matters.

Our work is widely recognized. We have 20 standout practices noted by Chambers Global, including global-wide rankings for arbitration, corporate investigations, anti-corruption, investment funds and life sciences. Named Antitrust Team of the Year, Chambers USA commends our “accomplished group” as “routinely sought after to handle some of the most significant litigation and transactions in the antitrust world.” 

In an increasingly challenging environment, clients look to us to serve them in ways that are faster, sharper and leaner without compromising excellence. We developed a first-of-its kind legal project management department, which uses technology, people and processes to drive efficiency and deliver value for our clients.

We are innovators. Dechert ranked #7 in the Financial Times’ Top North American Innovative Law Firms. Financial Times also recognizes us among the Top European Innovative Law Firms and highly commends World Compass, our marketing compliance service, which offers investment firms advice in more than 100 jurisdictions.

<ul><li>The presidential election has opened the possibility of significant changes to the Dodd-Frank Act regime that has been implemented over the last six years.</li><li>It remains to be seen what plans the incoming administration will bring to this area.</li><li>However, new regulatory proposals and other developments continue to present a complicated regulatory climate for banks and other large financial institutions.</li></ul>

The presidential election has opened the possibility of significant changes to the Dodd-Frank Act regime that has been implemented over the last six years.It remains to be seen what plans the incoming administration will bring to this area.However, new regulatory proposals and other developments continue to present a complicated regulatory climate for banks and other large financial institutions.

The New Future of US Banking and Financial Services Regulation

Campaign promises rarely turn into specific actions, but when they do, they are necessarily impacted by the dynamics of the legislative process. History suggests, however, that the policies of candidates can be a predictor of likely regulatory trends.

Campaign promises rarely turn into specific actions, but when they do, they are necessarily impacted by the dynamics of the legislative process. History suggests, however, that the policies of candidates can be a predictor of likely regulatory trends.

Implications of the 2016 Election for Banks and Systemically Important Financial Institutions

United States

New York Community Bancorp, Inc. is a multi-bank holding company. The Company, through its banking subsidiaries, offers a full range of traditional and non-traditional products and services, and originates multi-family, commercial real estate, and construction loans, primarily in the New York metropolitan area.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

New York Community Bank (NYCB US)

US Banks – Deferral Debt Dwindling

We look to US banks’ C19 loan modifications. Modified loans or reschedule loans have narrowed dramatically, suggesting that the degree of stress is...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks – Borrow Short, Lend Long

While credit costs will remain a key focus for US banks over the coming quarters, we must not lose sight of the steepening yield curve and what it...

Daniel Tabbush

Global Banks – Dividend Risk

There is risk that banks will have to cancel, suspend or cut dividends. During a period of low-cost or free loans from governments and regulators...

Daniel Tabbush

The New Future of US Banking and Financial Services Regulation

The presidential election has opened the possibility of significant changes to the Dodd-Frank Act regime that has been implemented over the last...

Dechert LLP

Implications of the 2016 Election for Banks and Systemically Important Financial Institutions

Campaign promises rarely turn into specific actions, but when they do, they are necessarily impacted by the dynamics of the legislative process....

Dechert LLP

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)