Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 10th May, Aussie lithium miner <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a> inked a $US10bn+ "merger of equals" with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/livent-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27434:1" rel="noopener">Livent (LTHM US)</a>, ostensibly forming the world's fifth largest lithium producer.</li>
<li>Allkem's Scheme Meeting is the 19 December, with implementation expected on the 4 January. The IE is supportive and Allkem's board unanimously recommends the transaction. </li>
<li>This looks done. Buy Livent. And get borrow on Livent to be able to short it into the inclusion or in the days following. </li>
</ul>


On the 10th May, Aussie lithium miner Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) inked a $US10bn+ "merger of equals" with Livent (LTHM US), ostensibly forming the world's fifth largest lithium producer.
Allkem's Scheme Meeting is the 19 December, with implementation expected on the 4 January. The IE is supportive and Allkem's board unanimously recommends the transaction. 
This looks done. Buy Livent. And get borrow on Livent to be able to short it into the inclusion or in the days following. 


Allkem/​Livent Merger: 19th December Shareholder Vote

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 27th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Newcrest Mining, Rio Tinto, Liontown, Bluescope Steel, Endeavour, Suncorp.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 27th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.8bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Newcrest Mining, Rio Tinto, Liontown, Bluescope Steel, Endeavour, Suncorp.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 27th): Newcrest Mining, Rio Tinto, Liontown, Bluescope Steel

Haitong International Securities Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of October 2023, 7 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in October was 65%. The average YTD is 37% (85 deals).</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of October 2023, 7 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in October was 65%. The average YTD is 37% (85 deals).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2023: Haitong, Azure, Hollysys, Aeon, Teraoka, Tietto, Lithium Power

<ul>
<li>Recent underperformance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> vs Peers appears to be part of a "perfect storm". </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a> has an attractive yield on its side; and Richard Li has been buying. But a 6% premium to NAV is unsustainable for this holding company structure.</li>
<li>Palliser Capital's straightforward request is for a 35% reduction in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> holding reflects a strategic urgency. </li>
</ul>


Recent underperformance of Newmont Mining (NEM US) vs Peers appears to be part of a "perfect storm". 

PCCW Ltd (8 HK) has an attractive yield on its side; and Richard Li has been buying. But a 6% premium to NAV is unsustainable for this holding company structure.
Palliser Capital's straightforward request is for a 35% reduction in Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s Oriental Land (4661 JP) holding reflects a strategic urgency. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, Keisei Electric, PCCW, Cosmo Energy, Leapmotor

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Today saw 65mm shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> print at the close and 85+mm shares crossed in blocks post-close. There was another 15mm shares traded in additional excess volume.</li>
<li>That suggests a certain lack of "risk taking" by passive managers, increasing today's trade in NY. </li>
<li>Furthermore, the settlement logistics appear to indicate an interesting trade to do 7 November (worth checking with your custodian/broker). </li>
</ul>


Today saw 65mm shares of Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) print at the close and 85+mm shares crossed in blocks post-close. There was another 15mm shares traded in additional excess volume.
That suggests a certain lack of "risk taking" by passive managers, increasing today's trade in NY. 
Furthermore, the settlement logistics appear to indicate an interesting trade to do 7 November (worth checking with your custodian/broker). 


Newcrest/Newmont - More Selling on the NCM Means More Buying on NEM, And Settlement Logistics Matter

Australia

Newcrest Mining Limited is a gold mining, exploration and production company. The Company is geographically focused in Australia, the Pacific region and Asia. Newcrest Mining operates projects within six provinces in four countries, focusing on the Cadia East and Lihir MOPU expansion projects and the Wafi Golpu and Namosi greenfield projects.

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Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)

Allkem/Livent Merger: 19th December Shareholder Vote

This looks done. Buy Livent (LTHM US). And get borrow on Livent to be able to short it into the inclusion or in days following.

David Blennerhassett

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 27th): Newcrest Mining, Rio Tinto, Liontown, Bluescope Steel

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Newcrest Mining, Rio Tinto, Liontown, Bluescope...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2023: Haitong, Azure, Hollysys, Aeon, Teraoka, Tietto, Lithium Power

For the month of October, 7 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$4bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, Keisei Electric, PCCW, Cosmo Energy, Leapmotor

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Newcrest/Newmont - More Selling on the NCM Means More Buying on NEM, And Settlement Logistics Matter

The NCM selldown was larger than I expected as global passive avoids gap risk. That means a bigger arb risk and more action at the NEM close today....

Travis Lundy

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52-week Range

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Allkem/​Livent Merger: 19th December Shareholder Vote

This looks done. Buy Livent (LTHM US). And get borrow on Livent to be able to short it into the inclusion or in days following.

David Blennerhassett

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 27th): Newcrest Mining, Rio Tinto, Liontown, Bluescope Steel

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Newcrest Mining, Rio Tinto, Liontown, Bluescope...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2023: Haitong, Azure, Hollysys, Aeon, Teraoka, Tietto, Lithium Power

For the month of October, 7 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$4bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, Keisei Electric, PCCW, Cosmo Energy, Leapmotor

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Newcrest/Newmont - More Selling on the NCM Means More Buying on NEM, And Settlement Logistics Matter

The NCM selldown was larger than I expected as global passive avoids gap risk. That means a bigger arb risk and more action at the NEM close today....

Travis Lundy

Allkem/Livent Merger: 19th December Shareholder Vote