Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Technology Select Sector SPDR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are cautious on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and A.I./Technology areas (XLK, SOXX, CHAT, DRAM);</li>
<li>Gaps from August 12th and August 4th have been filled on Technology (XLK), semiconductors (SOXX, SMH), generative A.I. (CHAT), neoclouds (NCLD), and momentum (MTUM), which is a concerning development.</li>
<li>Outside of A.I. areas, the market appears healthy; the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 (RSP) is resuming its leadership status with support at the 20-day MA.</li>
</ul>


We are cautious on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and A.I./Technology areas (XLK, SOXX, CHAT, DRAM);
Gaps from August 12th and August 4th have been filled on Technology (XLK), semiconductors (SOXX, SMH), generative A.I. (CHAT), neoclouds (NCLD), and momentum (MTUM), which is a concerning development.
Outside of A.I. areas, the market appears healthy; the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 (RSP) is resuming its leadership status with support at the 20-day MA.


Downgrading Technology; Upgrading Energy and Health Care to Overweight; Caution Within A.I. Names

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Newmont Corporation delivered a solid financial and operational performance in the third quarter of 2025, demonstrating both resilience and adaptability amidst global economic shifts.</li><li>Positively, the company achieved a record $1.6 billion in cash flow, with the cumulative year-to-date free cash flow reaching an all-time high of $4.5 billion—despite having one quarter still to contribute.</li><li>This achievement was bolstered by robust improvements in cost discipline, resulting in an improvement in their 2025 guidance for several cost metrics.</li></ul>

Newmont Corporation delivered a solid financial and operational performance in the third quarter of 2025, demonstrating both resilience and adaptability amidst global economic shifts.Positively, the company achieved a record $1.6 billion in cash flow, with the cumulative year-to-date free cash flow reaching an all-time high of $4.5 billion—despite having one quarter still to contribute.This achievement was bolstered by robust improvements in cost discipline, resulting in an improvement in their 2025 guidance for several cost metrics.

Newmont Strikes Gold Again: Ahafo North Officially Enters Commercial Production!

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>CPI came in soft as expected, but rate hike expectations are mixed due to the ongoing conflict</li>
<li>Hong Kong and China platform names are getting a bid as money rotates out of the "hot" markets</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
CPI came in soft as expected, but rate hike expectations are mixed due to the ongoing conflict
Hong Kong and China platform names are getting a bid as money rotates out of the "hot" markets


Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Rising US yields are no longer supporting the US Dollar</li>
<li>A move by the Japanese Government Pension Fund has massive implications for global markets</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Rising US yields are no longer supporting the US Dollar
A move by the Japanese Government Pension Fund has massive implications for global markets


Overview #68 – The Dog that Didn’t Bark

Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

<ul>
<li>Gold has pulled back from record highs near US$5,594/oz in January 2026, but supply remains inelastic and structural demand persists, suggesting downside is constrained.</li>
<li>Short-Term price moves are shaped by real yields, the US dollar and positioning. Higher real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding gold and limit near-term upside.</li>
<li>Official sector buying remains positive and absorbs supply, providing a structural floor, but its pace is uneven and insufficient to offset macro-driven outflows in the short term.</li>
</ul>


Gold has pulled back from record highs near US$5,594/oz in January 2026, but supply remains inelastic and structural demand persists, suggesting downside is constrained.
Short-Term price moves are shaped by real yields, the US dollar and positioning. Higher real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding gold and limit near-term upside.
Official sector buying remains positive and absorbs supply, providing a structural floor, but its pace is uneven and insufficient to offset macro-driven outflows in the short term.


Gold: The Floor Is Clear, Weakness Is an Opportunity

United States

Newmont Mining Corporation acquires, explores, and develops mineral properties. The Company produces gold from operations in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Canada, New Zealand and Mexico. Newmont also mines and processes copper in Indonesia.

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Newmont Mining (NEM US)

Downgrading Technology; Upgrading Energy and Health Care to Overweight; Caution Within A.I. Names

Downgrading Technology $XLK $SOXX $SMH; Upgrading Energy $XLE and Health Care $XLV to Overweight; Caution Within A.I. Names; Outside of A.I. areas,...

Vermilion Research

Newmont Strikes Gold Again: Ahafo North Officially Enters Commercial Production!

Newmont Corporation delivered a solid financial and operational performance in the third quarter of 2025, demonstrating both resilience and...

Baptista Research

Overview #69 - Tug of War

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the impact of soft CPI data on rate expectations & where the...

Rikki Malik

Overview #68 – The Dog that Didn’t Bark

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at what the recent rise in US government yields didn't affect,...

Rikki Malik

Gold: The Floor Is Clear, Weakness Is an Opportunity

Gold has a structural floor from constrained supply and central bank demand, but real yields cap upside, making weakness a more attractive entry...

Duncan Chan

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