Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

<p>Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).<br/> We assess Nexi's ESG as "Adequate". The company has "Adequate" scores for the Social and Environmental pillars, and a "Strong" Governance score. Controversies are "Immaterial", and Disclosure is "Adequate".<br/></p>

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).  We assess Nexi's ESG as "Adequate". The company has "Adequate" scores for the Social and Environmental pillars, and a "Strong" Governance score. Controversies are "Immaterial", and Disclosure is "Adequate". 

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Since our March-end report, our shorts – especially Kakao Pay – worked better than our longs, given the continuing turbulent conditions; Santander’s offer for Getnet minorities signals a specific opportunity</li>
<li>We still favour Mastercard in the megacaps, and we stick with PagSeguro and Nexi despite both having disappointed; Cielo has been a strong performer, but we would not chase it</li>
<li>Among our shorts, we remain negative on DLocal, given its very demanding valuations, and we still see Kakao Pay to be fundamentally over-valued; we reintroduce Paytm to the shorts list</li>
</ul>


Since our March-end report, our shorts – especially Kakao Pay – worked better than our longs, given the continuing turbulent conditions; Santander’s offer for Getnet minorities signals a specific opportunity
We still favour Mastercard in the megacaps, and we stick with PagSeguro and Nexi despite both having disappointed; Cielo has been a strong performer, but we would not chase it
Among our shorts, we remain negative on DLocal, given its very demanding valuations, and we still see Kakao Pay to be fundamentally over-valued; we reintroduce Paytm to the shorts list


Payment Companies Screens – More Constructive Market Signals or a Bear Market Rally?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In response to an <a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/bain-capital-checks-out-eml-payments-bankers-chase-other-buyers-20220412-p5acvc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AFR article</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eml-payments-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3232:1" rel="noopener">EML Payments Limited (EML AU)</a> confirmed takeover interest from Bain Capital. However, discussions have ceased. The shares closed 10.5% higher at A$2.94. </li>
<li>The bombed-out share prices of payment companies have supported recent M&amp;A activity such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/afterpay-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24047:1" rel="noopener">Afterpay Holdings (AFY AU)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23755:1" rel="noopener">Square Inc (SQ US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sezzle-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30969:1" rel="noopener">Sezzle Inc (SZL AU)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zip-co-ltd-3708706d-4978-4e29-acbc-d9702b971da9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29126:1" rel="noopener">Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Despite today’s pop, the shares are still 50% down over the last 12 months. EML’s market positioning and expected stronger 2HFY22 should continue to fuel takeover interest.</li>
</ul>


In response to an AFR article, EML Payments Limited (EML AU) confirmed takeover interest from Bain Capital. However, discussions have ceased. The shares closed 10.5% higher at A$2.94. 
The bombed-out share prices of payment companies have supported recent M&amp;A activity such as Afterpay Holdings (AFY AU)/Square Inc (SQ US) and Sezzle Inc (SZL AU)/Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU).
Despite today’s pop, the shares are still 50% down over the last 12 months. EML’s market positioning and expected stronger 2HFY22 should continue to fuel takeover interest.


EML Payments Flirtation with Bain Likely Not the Last

<ul>
<li>Our negative recommendations from December – especially Paytm – worked better than our positive ones, given 1Q22 market conditions; we see much value in payment companies but we remain selective</li>
<li>Based on our screens, we continue to favour Mastercard in the megacaps, we stick with PagSeguro and Getnet, adding Nexi which looks very oversold, despite its fundamental headwinds</li>
<li>We take Paytm off the sell list, but we remain negative on DLocal on its very demanding valuations, and we add Kakao Pay to the negative list</li>
</ul>


Our negative recommendations from December – especially Paytm – worked better than our positive ones, given 1Q22 market conditions; we see much value in payment companies but we remain selective
Based on our screens, we continue to favour Mastercard in the megacaps, we stick with PagSeguro and Getnet, adding Nexi which looks very oversold, despite its fundamental headwinds
We take Paytm off the sell list, but we remain negative on DLocal on its very demanding valuations, and we add Kakao Pay to the negative list


Payment Companies – Thoughts on Screen Snapshots 1Q22

<ul>
<li>Among EM banks, our top picks are Sberbank in Russia, Banco do Brasil and HDFC Bank in India; we are negative on recent IPO Nubank due to inflated market expectations</li>
<li>Our top picks for 2022 are BBVA and Banco BPM for Southern Europe banks. In Exchanges, we are positive on B3 of Brazil and SGX</li>
<li>In payments, we like Mastercard and Pagseguro, but we are negative on Paytm; we see BTG Pactual as an attractive pick and winner in the digital wealth managers and brokers</li>
</ul>


Among EM banks, our top picks are Sberbank in Russia, Banco do Brasil and HDFC Bank in India; we are negative on recent IPO Nubank due to inflated market expectations
Our top picks for 2022 are BBVA and Banco BPM for Southern Europe banks. In Exchanges, we are positive on B3 of Brazil and SGX
In payments, we like Mastercard and Pagseguro, but we are negative on Paytm; we see BTG Pactual as an attractive pick and winner in the digital wealth managers and brokers


2022 High Conviction Ideas in FinTech & Financials

Italy

Nexi Spa provides payment services. The Company offers digital invoicing, credit card payment processing, online disbursement, and other related services. Nexi serves customers in Italy.

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Nexi SpA (NEXI IM)

Nexi - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We assess Nexi's ESG as "Adequate"....

Lucror Analytics

Payment Companies Screens – More Constructive Market Signals or a Bear Market Rally?

In payments, we stick with our longs on Mastercard for its quality, PagSeguro and Nexi for value; we reintroduce Paytm to the shorts, adding it to...

Victor Galliano

EML Payments Flirtation with Bain Likely Not the Last

EML confirmed takeover interest from Bain Capital but discussions have ceased. EML’s market positioning and expected stronger 2HFY22 should...

Arun George

Payment Companies – Thoughts on Screen Snapshots 1Q22

We favour Mastercard, PagSeguro and Getnet, adding Nexi which looks very oversold; we take Paytm off the sell list, but stay negative on DLocal due...

Victor Galliano

2022 High Conviction Ideas in FinTech & Financials

Our 2022 high conviction ideas include buys on Sberbank, Banco do Brasil and HDFC Bank, as well as BBVA, Banco BPM, B3, SGX, Mastercard and...

Victor Galliano

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