Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Equity Capital Markets

The last day of Krafton's bookbuilding? Well, it was really a crazy day.<div class="content-highlight">
<h2>A suspicious rumor circulated at noon yesterday</h2>
First of all, at noon yesterday, a rumor circulated among local institutions through the messenger mainly used by institutions.
Previously, Yahoo Messenger was the main medium for circulating all sorts of rumors and stories between local institutional investors. But after the Yahoo Messenger service was terminated, NateOn is mainly used now.
The content of this rumor was somewhat provocative. The rumor said that the bankers are currently holding an emergency meeting due to the low competition rate for institutional subscriptions in the Krafton bookbuilding.
When Mirae Asset Securities learned that this rumor was circulating through NateOn, it immediately denied it, which led to an unusual situation where a banker updated the bookbuilding progress even before bookbuilding was closed.
In fact, Mirae Asset explained to local institutions yesterday afternoon that this Krafton bookbuilding was significantly more positive than initially expected and that the rumor of holding an emergency meeting due to the disastrous results simply was not true.
However, it is said that this rumor has caused confusion among some local institutions and has had some effect on the institutional subscription rate on the last day.
</div>

The last day of Krafton's bookbuilding? Well, it was really a crazy day.
A suspicious rumor circulated at noon yesterday
First of all, at noon yesterday, a rumor circulated among local institutions through the messenger mainly used by institutions.
Previously, Yahoo Messenger was the main medium for circulating all sorts of rumors and stories between local institutional investors. But after the Yahoo Messenger service was terminated, NateOn is mainly used now.
The content of this rumor was somewhat provocative. The rumor said that the bankers are currently holding an emergency meeting due to the low competition rate for institutional subscriptions in the Krafton bookbuilding.
When Mirae Asset Securities learned that this rumor was circulating through NateOn, it immediately denied it, which led to an unusual situation where a banker updated the bookbuilding progress even before bookbuilding was closed.
In fact, Mirae Asset explained to local institutions yesterday afternoon that this Krafton bookbuilding was significantly more positive than initially expected and that the rumor of holding an emergency meeting due to the disastrous results simply was not true.
However, it is said that this rumor has caused confusion among some local institutions and has had some effect on the institutional subscription rate on the last day.


Krafton Bookbuilding: A Quick Recap of Last Day Craziness

<h2>Listing date</h2>The listing date of Krafton has been confirmed as August 10th.<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Schedule"}'>Krafton IPO schedule</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Book open"}'>Book open</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44391}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'>2021. 7. 14</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Book close"}'>Book close</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44404}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'>2021. 7. 27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Allotment"}'>Allotment</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44406}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'>2021. 7. 29</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Subscription"}'>Subscription</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44410}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'>2021. 8. 2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Payment"}'>Payment</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44413}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'>2021. 8. 5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Listing"}'>Listing</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44418}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'>2021. 8. 10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> - Kakao Bank's listing</td>
<td>2021. 8. 5</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><ul>
<li>The initially scheduled date was August 10th. However, as Kakao Pay's listing date was set for August 12, Krafton could not easily finalize the listing date due to the issue of mutual interference for retail investors with Kakao Pay.</li>
<li>The fact that Krafton confirmed the listing date as soon as Kakao Pay's listing schedule was delayed shows how sensitive Krafton was to this retail interference issue.</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">
The listing date of Kakao Bank is August 5, and there is a gap of 3 business days until the listing date of Krafton. However, in this case, Krafton is in a position to absorb retail demand from Kakao Bank. More importantly, Kakao Bank must draw less attention from retail investors than Kakao Pay in terms of business nature, so there is no need to worry too much about potential interference with Kakao Bank.
And then, at least until the end of August, there is no major listing. That is, there is enough temporal buffer for Krafton to drive retail demand.
</div>

Listing dateThe listing date of Krafton has been confirmed as August 10th.





Krafton IPO schedule

Book open
2021. 7. 14


Book close
2021. 7. 27


Allotment
2021. 7. 29


Subscription
2021. 8. 2


Payment
2021. 8. 5


Listing
2021. 8. 10


 - Kakao Bank's listing
2021. 8. 5

Source: DART


The initially scheduled date was August 10th. However, as Kakao Pay's listing date was set for August 12, Krafton could not easily finalize the listing date due to the issue of mutual interference for retail investors with Kakao Pay.
The fact that Krafton confirmed the listing date as soon as Kakao Pay's listing schedule was delayed shows how sensitive Krafton was to this retail interference issue.

The listing date of Kakao Bank is August 5, and there is a gap of 3 business days until the listing date of Krafton. However, in this case, Krafton is in a position to absorb retail demand from Kakao Bank. More importantly, Kakao Bank must draw less attention from retail investors than Kakao Pay in terms of business nature, so there is no need to worry too much about potential interference with Kakao Bank.
And then, at least until the end of August, there is no major listing. That is, there is enough temporal buffer for Krafton to drive retail demand.


Krafton Listing Date Confirmed as August 10th: Rebalancing Trading Timeline

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<div class="content-highlight">In July 2021, the Krafton and SD Biosensor are expected to complete their IPOs. We expect both of these two IPOs to be duds. The more we think about this, it appears that if indeed Krafton and SD Biosensor IPOs end up doing really poorly, this could upset the entire IPO market and change the investment sentiment for Korean IPOs which has been sizzling hot in the past 15 months.</div>In this insight, we also discuss some of the major new game launches by Krafton and its major competitors in the rest of 2021. <ul>
<li>
Krafton - <a href="https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/kraftons-battlegrounds-mobile-india-receives-over-5-mn-downloads-in-two-days-11624182233199.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Battlegrounds Mobile India</a> (BGMI), Battleground: New State, The Callisto Protocol</li>
<li>
Netmarble - Second Country</li>
<li>
Kakao Games - ODIN: Valhalla Rising</li>
<li>
NCsoft - Blade &amp; Soul 2, Project TL (The Lineage), Aion 2</li>
</ul>

In July 2021, the Krafton and SD Biosensor are expected to complete their IPOs. We expect both of these two IPOs to be duds. The more we think about this, it appears that if indeed Krafton and SD Biosensor IPOs end up doing really poorly, this could upset the entire IPO market and change the investment sentiment for Korean IPOs which has been sizzling hot in the past 15 months.In this insight, we also discuss some of the major new game launches by Krafton and its major competitors in the rest of 2021. 

Krafton - Battlegrounds Mobile India (BGMI), Battleground: New State, The Callisto Protocol

Netmarble - Second Country

Kakao Games - ODIN: Valhalla Rising

NCsoft - Blade &amp; Soul 2, Project TL (The Lineage), Aion 2
 

New Games Launches by Krafton & Its Major Competitors in 2021

In this insight, we discuss our initial thoughts on the Krafton IPO. According to the bankers' valuation, the expected market cap of the company is expected to be from 23.7 trillion won to 28.8 trillion won (IPO price range of 458,000 won to 557,000 won).<div class="content-highlight">Our base case valuation of Krafton is an implied market cap of 24.1 trillion won or 465,055 won per share. Our valuation sensitivity suggests a valuation range from 18.3 trillion won to 30.6 trillion won. Our base case valuation of 465,055 won is close to the low end of the IPO price range of 458,000 won to 557,000 won. Given the lack of upside, we would PASS on this IPO deal. </div>

In this insight, we discuss our initial thoughts on the Krafton IPO. According to the bankers' valuation, the expected market cap of the company is expected to be from 23.7 trillion won to 28.8 trillion won (IPO price range of 458,000 won to 557,000 won).Our base case valuation of Krafton is an implied market cap of 24.1 trillion won or 465,055 won per share. Our valuation sensitivity suggests a valuation range from 18.3 trillion won to 30.6 trillion won. Our base case valuation of 465,055 won is close to the low end of the IPO price range of 458,000 won to 557,000 won. Given the lack of upside, we would PASS on this IPO deal. 

Initial Thoughts on the Krafton IPO Valuation

<div class="content-highlight">In this insight, we discuss the 9 major risks (excluding valuation issues) for Krafton. Overall, we believe these significant risk factors could result in much lower than expected demand for the Krafton IPO shares, especially among the institutional investors unless the IPO price range is lowered significantly. </div>1) Too much dependent on one game PUBG2) Krafton's big political risk with China (Game for Peace)3) Political risks of operating PUBG in overseas countries such as India  4) Company's sales growth in 2020 helped by COVID-195) Declining sales and profit growth in 1Q 20216) Comparable companies' worsening sales and profit trend in 1Q 20217) Potential acquisitions may not add value8) Expansion into other entertainment related business may involve execution risks9) Insiders are selling too much in this IPO

In this insight, we discuss the 9 major risks (excluding valuation issues) for Krafton. Overall, we believe these significant risk factors could result in much lower than expected demand for the Krafton IPO shares, especially among the institutional investors unless the IPO price range is lowered significantly. 1) Too much dependent on one game PUBG2) Krafton's big political risk with China (Game for Peace)3) Political risks of operating PUBG in overseas countries such as India  4) Company's sales growth in 2020 helped by COVID-195) Declining sales and profit growth in 1Q 20216) Comparable companies' worsening sales and profit trend in 1Q 20217) Potential acquisitions may not add value8) Expansion into other entertainment related business may involve execution risks9) Insiders are selling too much in this IPO 

Japan

Nexon Co., Ltd. mainly develops and services, online games for PC and mobile devices. The company also offers consulting services related to online-games. Nexon operates in Japan.

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Nexon (3659 JP)

Krafton Bookbuilding: A Quick Recap of Last Day Craziness

This post is a quick recap of what's happened yesterday in the Krafton IPO bookbuilding. It examines the market rumor that surfaced yesterday and...

Sanghyun Park

Krafton Listing Date Confirmed as August 10th: Rebalancing Trading Timeline

The listing date of Krafton has been confirmed as August 10th. So, this post examines the index rebalancing trading timeline.

Sanghyun Park

New Games Launches by Krafton & Its Major Competitors in 2021

We discuss the major new game launches by Krafton and its major competitors in the rest of 2021. We also discuss how poor IPOs of Krafton and SD...

Douglas Kim

Initial Thoughts on the Krafton IPO Valuation

Our base case valuation of Krafton is an implied market cap of 24.1 trillion won or 465,055 won per share. Given the lack of upside relative to the...

Douglas Kim

Krafton IPO - 9 Major Risks

We discuss the 9 major risks (excluding valuation issues) for Krafton. Overall, we believe these significant risk factors could result in much...

Douglas Kim

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