IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings / Event-Driven

Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/az-com-maruwa-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17280:1" rel="noopener">AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP)</a> has launched a pre-conditional hostile offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chilled-frozen-logistics-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40987:1" rel="noopener">Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)</a> at JPY3,000 per share, a 47.0% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>The pre-conditions primarily relate to regulatory approvals. The tender is expected to start in early May. The Board responded that it will evaluate the offer.</li>
<li>The hostile offer was a reaction to the Board’s lack of engagement. The Board will struggle to reject an attractive offer, which is 37.5% higher than the all-time high. </li>
</ul>



AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) has launched a pre-conditional hostile offer for Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) at JPY3,000 per share, a 47.0% premium to the last close.
The pre-conditions primarily relate to regulatory approvals. The tender is expected to start in early May. The Board responded that it will evaluate the offer.
The hostile offer was a reaction to the Board’s lack of engagement. The Board will struggle to reject an attractive offer, which is 37.5% higher than the all-time high. 


Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099 JP): AZ-COM Maruwa (9090 JP)’s Hostile Offer

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nisshin-seifun-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:640:1" rel="noopener">Nisshin Seifun Group</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oji-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11348:1" rel="noopener">Oji Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-shinyaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6634:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Shinyaku</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngk-insulators-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12580:1" rel="noopener">NGK Insulators</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lixil-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:454:1" rel="noopener">Lixil Group</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sharp-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:391:1" rel="noopener">Sharp Corp</a> have all underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> over the last 3-4 months.</li>
<li>The underperformance could lead to adjustments in global passive portfolios and liquidity events on some of the stocks.</li>
<li>Short interest has started to increase and there could be more pre-positioning yet to come over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>



Nisshin Seifun Group, Oji Holdings, Nippon Shinyaku, CyberAgent Inc, NGK Insulators, Lixil Group and Sharp Corp have all underperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) over the last 3-4 months.
The underperformance could lead to adjustments in global passive portfolios and liquidity events on some of the stocks.
Short interest has started to increase and there could be more pre-positioning yet to come over the next few weeks.


Japan - Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting Stocks

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p>Last week, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported that the US private equity firm Carlyle Group intends to invest over ¥1.0 trillion in Japan over the next five years. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mio Kato</a> has suggested three potential candidates based on Carlyle’s previous investments in Japan - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a-d-company-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A&amp;D (7745 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujio-food-system-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12242:1" rel="noopener">Fujio Food System (2752 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-oil-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4035:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Oil (2607 JP)</a>. In this Insight, we review Fuji Oil, a food materials company, in which <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu (8001 JP)</a> has a 38.5% stake (an increase from 33.2% in March 2020).</p>

Last week, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported that the US private equity firm Carlyle Group intends to invest over ¥1.0 trillion in Japan over the next five years. Mio Kato has suggested three potential candidates based on Carlyle’s previous investments in Japan - A&amp;D (7745 JP), Fujio Food System (2752 JP), and Fuji Oil (2607 JP). In this Insight, we review Fuji Oil, a food materials company, in which Itochu (8001 JP) has a 38.5% stake (an increase from 33.2% in March 2020).

Fuji Oil In Itochu's Industry Consolidation Plans?

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE</strong> •</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/178/original/2019-09-06_09-42-35.png?1567730614" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98178"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>INTRODUCTION </strong>- The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are thus on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at<strong> +4</strong> &amp; <strong>-2</strong> and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. RPS outliers with a Score of greater than 10.0 are rare outside of the 2000 tech 'bubble'. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec (6920 JP)</a> has just joined <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldwin-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:410:1" rel="noopener">Goldwin (8111 JP)</a> in being only the second large-cap RPS 'ten-baggers' in the last twenty years. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>This insight updates our list of Overbought and Oversold companies, reviews the best and worst-performing companies in terms of RPS over the last three months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.</strong></p></div><div></div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/046/original/2019-09-05_12-46-46.png?1567655232" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98046"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>STATISTICS</strong> - Currently, of the 3,706 listed companies for which monthly RPS data is available, 81 companies are 'Overbought', and 133 are 'Oversold' - 2.45% and 3.8%, respectively of the total. For the 737 companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 44 'Overbought' and 37 'Oversold' companies, 6% and 5%, respectively.</p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE 'TOPS' •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/055/original/2019-09-05_13-06-30.png?1567656423" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98055"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RPS 'TOPS'</strong> - In the last two years, 388 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more and the average Overbought 'persistence' is 42 days. 1.26% of the total of 1.94 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of over 4. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 95 companies and 74 days - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. The chart above highlights the track record of all 95 large caps which are some point were Overbought in the last twenty-four months and illustrates the extreme outlier status of Goldwin and Lasertec.</p><p><strong>RPS NEGATIVE MEAN REVERSION</strong> - Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last three months have been <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuken-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14996:1" rel="noopener">Suzuken (9987 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infomart-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1301:1" rel="noopener">Infomart (2492 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nichirei-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7168:1" rel="noopener">Nichirei (2871 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl (4921 JP)</a>. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/096/original/2019-09-05_16-25-39.png?1567668352" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98096"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/097/original/2019-09-05_16-27-09.png?1567668441" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98097"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/098/original/2019-09-05_16-28-42.png?1567668548" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98098"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/099/original/2019-09-05_16-30-29.png?1567668640" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98099"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE 'BOTTOMS' •</strong></p><div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/056/original/2019-09-05_13-12-52.png?1567656806" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98056"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
</div><p><strong>RPS 'BOTTOMS'</strong> - 259 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years, and the average Oversold 'persistence' is 83 days. 1.46% of the total of 1.94 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of less than -2.  For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 79 companies and 94 days. The chart above highlights the track record of the 79 large caps which are some point were Oversold in the last twenty-four months and illustrates the strong recovery in the<strong> REITs</strong> Sector and the continuing demise of <strong>Regional Banks</strong>.</p><p><strong>RPS POSITIVE MEAN REVERSION</strong> - Some recent examples of positive RPS mean reversions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otsuka-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12292:1" rel="noopener">Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/line-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22772:1" rel="noopener">LINE (3938 JP)</a>.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/100/original/2019-09-05_16-35-47.png?1567668972" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98100"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/102/original/2019-09-05_16-36-50.png?1567669047" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98102"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p>As we noted in our June <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-relative-price-scores-overbought-oversold-companies-june-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30393" rel="noopener">Insight: -</a></p><blockquote><p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/line-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22772:1" rel="noopener">LINE (3938 JP)</a></strong>- Line has performed poorly since being featured in last year's Sohn Conference and has had negative and worsening Operating Income for each of the previous five quarters. Although there is a possibility of a double-bottom RPS 'bounce' and <strong>the company is now the most-Oversold non-financial large-cap over one year,</strong> there are no fundamental reasons to own the shares.   </p></blockquote><p>In the <strong>DETAIL </strong>section below, we list the current<strong> Very Overbought (RPS&gt;5</strong>), <strong>Too-Late-To-Buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5)</strong> and <strong>Oversold (RPS &lt;-2)</strong> stocks as well as the most substantial three-month positive and negative changes in RPS.</p>

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE •Source: Japan AnalyticsINTRODUCTION - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are thus on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at +4 &amp; -2 and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. RPS outliers with a Score of greater than 10.0 are rare outside of the 2000 tech 'bubble'. Lasertec (6920 JP) has just joined Goldwin (8111 JP) in being only the second large-cap RPS 'ten-baggers' in the last twenty years. This insight updates our list of Overbought and Oversold companies, reviews the best and worst-performing companies in terms of RPS over the last three months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.Source: Japan AnalyticsSTATISTICS - Currently, of the 3,706 listed companies for which monthly RPS data is available, 81 companies are 'Overbought', and 133 are 'Oversold' - 2.45% and 3.8%, respectively of the total. For the 737 companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 44 'Overbought' and 37 'Oversold' companies, 6% and 5%, respectively.• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE 'TOPS' •Source: Japan AnalyticsRPS 'TOPS' - In the last two years, 388 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more and the average Overbought 'persistence' is 42 days. 1.26% of the total of 1.94 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of over 4. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 95 companies and 74 days - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. The chart above highlights the track record of all 95 large caps which are some point were Overbought in the last twenty-four months and illustrates the extreme outlier status of Goldwin and Lasertec.RPS NEGATIVE MEAN REVERSION - Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last three months have been Suzuken (9987 JP), Infomart (2492 JP), Nichirei (2871 JP), and Fancl (4921 JP). Source: Japan Analytics• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE 'BOTTOMS' •
Source: Japan Analytics
RPS 'BOTTOMS' - 259 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years, and the average Oversold 'persistence' is 83 days. 1.46% of the total of 1.94 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of less than -2.  For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 79 companies and 94 days. The chart above highlights the track record of the 79 large caps which are some point were Oversold in the last twenty-four months and illustrates the strong recovery in the REITs Sector and the continuing demise of Regional Banks.RPS POSITIVE MEAN REVERSION - Some recent examples of positive RPS mean reversions are Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) and LINE (3938 JP).Source: Japan AnalyticsAs we noted in our June Insight: -LINE (3938 JP)- Line has performed poorly since being featured in last year's Sohn Conference and has had negative and worsening Operating Income for each of the previous five quarters. Although there is a possibility of a double-bottom RPS 'bounce' and the company is now the most-Oversold non-financial large-cap over one year, there are no fundamental reasons to own the shares.   In the DETAIL section below, we list the current Very Overbought (RPS&gt;5), Too-Late-To-Buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and Oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the most substantial three-month positive and negative changes in RPS.

🇯🇵 Japan • September Relative Price Scores - Life at the Poles Part 2: Companies

<p><strong>INTRODUCTION</strong> - Following on from our review of Spring Market  &amp; Sector Aggregates &amp; Scores <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-spring-results-revisions-market-sector-aggregates-scores-2nd-quarter" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29938">Insight</a>, this Insight will cover the cap-weighted Results &amp; Revision Scores for the 328 Peer Groups that comprise our 30 Sectors and provide greater depth to our analysis of current business trends.  Peer Group definitions reflect both standard SIC/GICS classifications as well as local market conventions. The number of constituents and market capitalisation for each Peer Group varies widely. A full list of the Peer Groups within each sector is provided below. </p><p>As an appetiser, the charts below show the top and bottom ten Peer Groups ranked by Results &amp; Revision Score.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/088/989/original/2019-05-28_11-43-58.png?1559011506" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="88989"></figure><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/088/991/original/2019-05-28_11-46-04.png?1559011726" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="88991"></figure><p>Source: Japan Analytics</p>
</div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we list the top and bottom twenty Peer Groups ranked by Results &amp; Revision Score and the top and bottom twenty most-changed over the last three months as well the most optimistic and most pessimistic.  </p></div>

INTRODUCTION - Following on from our review of Spring Market  &amp; Sector Aggregates &amp; Scores Insight, this Insight will cover the cap-weighted Results &amp; Revision Scores for the 328 Peer Groups that comprise our 30 Sectors and provide greater depth to our analysis of current business trends.  Peer Group definitions reflect both standard SIC/GICS classifications as well as local market conventions. The number of constituents and market capitalisation for each Peer Group varies widely. A full list of the Peer Groups within each sector is provided below. As an appetiser, the charts below show the top and bottom ten Peer Groups ranked by Results &amp; Revision Score.
Source: Japan Analytics
In the DETAIL section below, we list the top and bottom twenty Peer Groups ranked by Results &amp; Revision Score and the top and bottom twenty most-changed over the last three months as well the most optimistic and most pessimistic.  

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Spring Results & Revision Scores - Peer Groups

Japan

NICHIREI CORPORATION produces and distributes frozen food, ice, and meat products.  The Company also provides a variety of cold storage services, as well as manages leasing business for buildings and parking garages.

Price Gauge
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Nichirei Corp (2871 JP)

Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099 JP): AZ-COM Maruwa (9090 JP)’s Hostile Offer

The hostile offer was a reaction to the Board’s lack of engagement. The Board will struggle to reject an attractive offer, which is 37.5% higher...

Arun George

Japan - Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting Stocks

There are a bunch of stocks in Japan that have underperformed the NKY over the last few months and that could lead to a liquidity event due to the...

Brian Freitas

Fuji Oil In Itochu's Industry Consolidation Plans?

Last week, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported that the US private equity firm Carlyle Group intends to invest over ¥1.0 trillion in Japan over the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

🇯🇵 Japan • September Relative Price Scores - Life at the Poles Part 2: Companies

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE •INTRODUCTION - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Spring Results & Revision Scores - Peer Groups

INTRODUCTION - Following on from our review of Spring Market & Sector Aggregates & Scores Insight, this Insight will cover the...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)