Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Mega caps announcing bigger capex sends Microsoft and Meta down AH, but is another positive for semi-cap plays.</li>
<li>Disco numbers miss, but memory related shipment miss may be a matter of timing and expect management to say as much on call today</li>
<li>Blackwell for China will mean more upside for Ibiden, not that it needs any help after +25% in 2-days thanks to Nidec (and Nagamori's) demise.</li>
</ul>


Mega caps announcing bigger capex sends Microsoft and Meta down AH, but is another positive for semi-cap plays.
Disco numbers miss, but memory related shipment miss may be a matter of timing and expect management to say as much on call today
Blackwell for China will mean more upside for Ibiden, not that it needs any help after +25% in 2-days thanks to Nidec (and Nagamori's) demise.


Japan Morning Connection: Big Gains for Semi-Testers and Memory Sets Strong Tone (Again)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1697:1" rel="noopener">Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP)</a> Board has responded to SilverCape’s hostile offer by proposing countermeasures ostensibly to protect the interests of minorities.</li>
<li>The precedent Makino countermeasures against Nidec’s hostile offer were intended to buy time for a higher white-knight offer. In this case, it is being done to facilitate a lower offer.  </li>
<li>The countermeasures will severely dent SilverCape's chances of succeeding. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hakuhodo-dy-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8736:1" rel="noopener">Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP)</a>’s irrevocables and insiders should be sufficient to pass the shareholder vote to implement the countermeasures. </li>
</ul>


The Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) Board has responded to SilverCape’s hostile offer by proposing countermeasures ostensibly to protect the interests of minorities.
The precedent Makino countermeasures against Nidec’s hostile offer were intended to buy time for a higher white-knight offer. In this case, it is being done to facilitate a lower offer.  
The countermeasures will severely dent SilverCape's chances of succeeding. Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP)’s irrevocables and insiders should be sufficient to pass the shareholder vote to implement the countermeasures. 


Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape’s Hostile Competing Bid Is Met with Countermeasures

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In June, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec Corp (6594 JP)</a> announced they would delay the release of their yuho for three months because of an internal investigation into NIDEC FIR INTERNATIONAL (Italy).</li>
<li>In September they launched a special committee. Shares fell 22%. Last Thursday, the company cancelled its interim dividend. Today, the JPX designated Nidec as Security on Special Alert.</li>
<li>This is a VERY BIG DEAL. Nikkei225 deletes Nidec 5-Nov-2025, replaced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ibiden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16630:1" rel="noopener">Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)</a> (PAF 1.0x). Designation also triggers TOPIX deletion for Nidec, likely on 30 October. </li>
</ul>


In June, Nidec Corp (6594 JP) announced they would delay the release of their yuho for three months because of an internal investigation into NIDEC FIR INTERNATIONAL (Italy).
In September they launched a special committee. Shares fell 22%. Last Thursday, the company cancelled its interim dividend. Today, the JPX designated Nidec as Security on Special Alert.
This is a VERY BIG DEAL. Nikkei225 deletes Nidec 5-Nov-2025, replaced by Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) (PAF 1.0x). Designation also triggers TOPIX deletion for Nidec, likely on 30 October. 


[Japan Special] Ibiden (4062) Replaces Nidec (6594) In Nikkei 225 on Accounting - A VERY BIG DEAL

<ul>
<li>Intel sees its PC biz improve. Positive for flip-chip suppliers including Ibiden.</li>
<li>Honeywell sees strong performance from its commercial aero after-market business. IHI gets a D/G but this may lift.</li>
<li>Nidec ADR's take a -25% thumping on numbers and a bevvy of bad news. Could this be the end for Nagamori?</li>
</ul>


Intel sees its PC biz improve. Positive for flip-chip suppliers including Ibiden.
Honeywell sees strong performance from its commercial aero after-market business. IHI gets a D/G but this may lift.
Nidec ADR's take a -25% thumping on numbers and a bevvy of bad news. Could this be the end for Nagamori?


Japan Morning Connection: STM -14% but Nexperia Cannot Guarantee Supplies to JP Autos

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Oct 17th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD18,404m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in IHI, Kobe Bussan, Advantest, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, SoftBank, Fujikura, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Recruit, Furukawa Electric, Ihi, Kobe Bussan, Advantest, Disco.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Oct 17th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD18,404m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in IHI, Kobe Bussan, Advantest, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, SoftBank, Fujikura, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Recruit, Furukawa Electric, Ihi, Kobe Bussan, Advantest, Disco.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Oct 17th): IHI, Kobe Bussan, Advantest, Disco

Japan

NIDEC CORPORATION is the world's leading manufacturer of small precision motors mainly used in HDD and optical disk drives. The company has extended its focus to the home appliance and automotive markets. NIDEC is active in M&A and its subsidiaries include the world's leading manufacturers of LCD panel handling robots and camera shutters.

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Nidec Corp (6594 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Big Gains for Semi-Testers and Memory Sets Strong Tone (Again)

Smaller tester names may have room for further upside after Teradyne and Advantest surged. Any excessive weakness for Disco should be an oportunity...

Andrew Jackson

Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape’s Hostile Competing Bid Is Met with Countermeasures

Hakuhodo has extended the close of its lower offer. Crucially, the Board has proposed countermeasures that will severely dent SilverCape's chances...

Arun George

[Japan Special] Ibiden (4062) Replaces Nidec (6594) In Nikkei 225 on Accounting - A VERY BIG DEAL

Nidec's accounting issues mean it gets the boot from TOPIX + Nikkei 225 in quick succession. That's 15% of TSO and ¥400bn to sell between 30 Oct...

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: STM -14% but Nexperia Cannot Guarantee Supplies to JP Autos

ECU prices higher should be a positive for Renesas Electronics and Denso Corp. Uncertainty for power/analog names. HDD laggards picked up overnight.

Andrew Jackson

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Oct 17th): IHI, Kobe Bussan, Advantest, Disco

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted IHI (7013 JP), Kobe Bussan (3038 JP), Advantest (6857 JP), Disco...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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