Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>On Friday we warned that Fanuc might come through with a surprise downgrade as a result of weakness in its Robomachine division. We said that FA and Robot sales were likely flattish QoQ (-0.8% QoQ and +6.1% QoQ respectively) but that the Robomachine division could see sales collapse to about ¥28bn from ¥53.2bn in the last quarter. They did, falling to ¥27.8bn. What remains to be seen is how far ahead of the clueless and oblivious sellside (which projected a 1.6% QoQ rise in sales) the market was. For now though…</p><p><iframe src="//www.youtube.com/embed/gbGfhT1yehw" width="640" height="360"></iframe></p>

On Friday we warned that Fanuc might come through with a surprise downgrade as a result of weakness in its Robomachine division. We said that FA and Robot sales were likely flattish QoQ (-0.8% QoQ and +6.1% QoQ respectively) but that the Robomachine division could see sales collapse to about ¥28bn from ¥53.2bn in the last quarter. They did, falling to ¥27.8bn. What remains to be seen is how far ahead of the clueless and oblivious sellside (which projected a 1.6% QoQ rise in sales) the market was. For now though…

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chilled-frozen-logistics-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40987:1" rel="noopener">Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)</a> Board has responded with several questions regarding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/az-com-maruwa-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17280:1" rel="noopener">AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP)</a>’s pre-conditional hostile offer of JPY3,000 per share.</li>
<li>The Board questions the transaction’s schedule, terms and potential synergies. The Board has also used the ruse that due diligence access would justify a higher offer price.</li>
<li>Expect several rounds of Q&amp;A and a delay to the tender start. If shares continue trading through terms ahead of the tender start, AZ-COM Maruwa will likely have to bump. </li>
</ul>


The Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) Board has responded with several questions regarding AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP)’s pre-conditional hostile offer of JPY3,000 per share.
The Board questions the transaction’s schedule, terms and potential synergies. The Board has also used the ruse that due diligence access would justify a higher offer price.
Expect several rounds of Q&amp;A and a delay to the tender start. If shares continue trading through terms ahead of the tender start, AZ-COM Maruwa will likely have to bump. 


Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099 JP): Pass The🍿as the Board Responds to AZ-COM Maruwa (9090 JP)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chilled-frozen-logistics-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40987:1" rel="noopener">Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)</a> last week announced its <em>"Action to Implement Management That is Conscious of Cost of Capital and Stock Price".</em>
</li>
<li>Today it announced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/az-com-maruwa-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17280:1" rel="noopener">AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP)</a> had announced its intention to launch a Tender Offer on C&amp;F Logistics without having contacted C&amp;F first. A HOSTILE deal. Yum.</li>
<li>The deal is proposed at a 50% premium, with the goal of getting to a minimum of 50.00%. This will be interesting.</li>
</ul>



Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) last week announced its "Action to Implement Management That is Conscious of Cost of Capital and Stock Price".

Today it announced AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) had announced its intention to launch a Tender Offer on C&amp;F Logistics without having contacted C&amp;F first. A HOSTILE deal. Yum.
The deal is proposed at a 50% premium, with the goal of getting to a minimum of 50.00%. This will be interesting.


Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099) - Hostile Takeover Launched by AZ-Com Maruwa (9090)

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Market Watch: Japanese equities flat over the week. Core inflation exceeds inflation; pressure on BoJ to normalize policy</li>
<li>Major Movers: Fujitsu stock soared by 12% this week; earnings in line; margin improvement in core Japan service solutions business.</li>
<li>Activist Watch: Murakami &amp; co has added another 1-pt to their holding in Ryosan (10.4%)</li>
</ul>


Market Watch: Japanese equities flat over the week. Core inflation exceeds inflation; pressure on BoJ to normalize policy
Major Movers: Fujitsu stock soared by 12% this week; earnings in line; margin improvement in core Japan service solutions business.
Activist Watch: Murakami &amp; co has added another 1-pt to their holding in Ryosan (10.4%)


<ul>
<li>Nidec released its financial results for the second quarter of 2023. Sales were up 0.7% and OP up 7.6% yoy</li>
<li>We view the results as neutral for the share price </li>
<li>The thesis for Nidec remains intact - the structural shift from oil to electricity is a key driver across all segments</li>
</ul>


Nidec released its financial results for the second quarter of 2023. Sales were up 0.7% and OP up 7.6% yoy
We view the results as neutral for the share price 
The thesis for Nidec remains intact - the structural shift from oil to electricity is a key driver across all segments


Japan

NIDEC CORPORATION is the world's leading manufacturer of small precision motors mainly used in HDD and optical disk drives. The company has extended its focus to the home appliance and automotive markets. NIDEC is active in M&A and its subsidiaries include the world's leading manufacturers of LCD panel handling robots and camera shutters.

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Nidec Corp (6594 JP)

Fanuc – Whoomp! There It Is

On Friday we warned that Fanuc might come through with a surprise downgrade as a result of weakness in its Robomachine division. They did.

Mio Kato

Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099 JP): Pass The🍿as the Board Responds to AZ-COM Maruwa (9090 JP)

Expect several rounds of Q&A and a delay to the tender start. AZ-COM Maruwa could eventually bump closer to the May tender start. However, as...

Arun George

Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099) - Hostile Takeover Launched by AZ-Com Maruwa (9090)

Logistics biz serial acquiror AZ-Com Maruyu wanted C&F Logistics. They approached, were rebuffed, and months later, they are going hostile. Nidec...

Travis Lundy

Japan Weekly | Fujitsu, Nidec, Ibiden

Japanese equities remain flat as core inflation surpasses inflation, increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan to normalize policy. Fujitsu stock...

Mark Chadwick

Nidec (6594) | Q2 Profits up 8%

Nidec's Q2 2023 financial results show slight sales growth and increased operating profit; Share price impact is considered neutral. LT thesis...

Mark Chadwick

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Fanuc – Whoomp! There It Is

On Friday we warned that Fanuc might come through with a surprise downgrade as a result of weakness in its Robomachine division. They did.

Mio Kato

Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099 JP): Pass The🍿as the Board Responds to AZ-COM Maruwa (9090 JP)

Expect several rounds of Q&A and a delay to the tender start. AZ-COM Maruwa could eventually bump closer to the May tender start. However, as...

Arun George

Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099) - Hostile Takeover Launched by AZ-Com Maruwa (9090)

Logistics biz serial acquiror AZ-Com Maruyu wanted C&F Logistics. They approached, were rebuffed, and months later, they are going hostile. Nidec...

Travis Lundy

Japan Weekly | Fujitsu, Nidec, Ibiden

​Japanese equities remain flat as core inflation surpasses inflation, increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan to normalize policy. Fujitsu stock...

Mark Chadwick

Nidec (6594) | Q2 Profits up 8%

​Nidec's Q2 2023 financial results show slight sales growth and increased operating profit; Share price impact is considered neutral. LT thesis...

Mark Chadwick

Japanese equities remain flat as core inflation surpasses inflation, increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan to normalize policy. Fujitsu stock...

Nidec's Q2 2023 financial results show slight sales growth and increased operating profit; Share price impact is considered neutral. LT thesis...