Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight is an update on two previously published relative value pairs.</li>
<li>
Highlight: The trades provide a case study illustrating how mean-reversion trades can fail to revert or hit stop-losses within extended timeframes.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Gain insights into timing-related challenges in mean-reversion strategies and time-based exit as a risk management choice.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight is an update on two previously published relative value pairs.

Highlight: The trades provide a case study illustrating how mean-reversion trades can fail to revert or hit stop-losses within extended timeframes.

Why Read: Gain insights into timing-related challenges in mean-reversion strategies and time-based exit as a risk management choice.


Case Study: Time-Based Exit in Two Long-Running Pair Trades

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-overseas-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13838:1" rel="noopener">Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uco-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9669:1" rel="noopener">UCO Bank (UCO IN)</a> Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Statistical mean reversion suggests short-term outperformance of UCO Bank (UCO IN), also supported by more attractive valuations.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN) vs. UCO Bank (UCO IN) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlights: Statistical mean reversion suggests short-term outperformance of UCO Bank (UCO IN), also supported by more attractive valuations.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


UCO Bank (UCO IN) Vs. IOB (IOB IN): Catch-Up Potential

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In FY25, India Inc. showed strong resilience despite global challenges, with a sharp earnings rebound in Q4 offsetting earlier softness. </li>
<li>A standout trend was the clear earnings outperformance of mid- and small-cap (SMID) companies, which led in 15 out of 19 sectors. </li>
<li>Sectors like consumer durables, capital goods, and chemicals led SMID gains, and their momentum is expected to sustain in FY26 amid steady capex and demand.</li>
</ul>


In FY25, India Inc. showed strong resilience despite global challenges, with a sharp earnings rebound in Q4 offsetting earlier softness. 
A standout trend was the clear earnings outperformance of mid- and small-cap (SMID) companies, which led in 15 out of 19 sectors. 
Sectors like consumer durables, capital goods, and chemicals led SMID gains, and their momentum is expected to sustain in FY26 amid steady capex and demand.


Thematic Report : FY25 Earnings Report: Sector Leaders and What’s Shaping FY26

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lic-housing-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15667:1" rel="noopener">LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN)</a> Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>The relative value opportunity can be implemented through stocks, derivatives, or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.</li>
<li>This Insight provides a target return and discusses trade setup and risk management strategies.</li>
</ul>


The Canara Bank (CBK IN) vs. LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
The relative value opportunity can be implemented through stocks, derivatives, or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.
This Insight provides a target return and discusses trade setup and risk management strategies.


Pair Trade Signal: LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN) Long Vs. Canara Bank (CBK IN) Short

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 20 changes a side for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June. We had correctly forecast 39 of the 40 changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 68.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 160bn (US$1.9bn). There are 22 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The Financials sector has 9 net inclusions to the index while the Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors have 2 net deletions each.</li>
</ul>


There are 20 changes a side for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June. We had correctly forecast 39 of the 40 changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 68.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 160bn (US$1.9bn). There are 22 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
The Financials sector has 9 net inclusions to the index while the Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors have 2 net deletions each.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine

India

Nifty Bank Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index comprised of the most liquid and large capitalized Indian Banking stocks. The index will have 12 stocks from the banking sector, which trade on the National Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 1000 as of January 1, 2000.

NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX EQUITY)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX EQUITY)

Case Study: Time-Based Exit in Two Long-Running Pair Trades

Case study illustrating when to exit mean-reversion pair trades that stall without hitting profit targets or stop-losses.

Gaudenz Schneider

UCO Bank (UCO IN) Vs. IOB (IOB IN): Catch-Up Potential

Price ratio triggers a trade signal as UCO underperforms in this high-beta PSU bank pair. Potential opportunity for mean reversion supported by...

Gaudenz Schneider

Thematic Report : FY25 Earnings Report: Sector Leaders and What’s Shaping FY26

India Inc. displayed strong resilience in FY25, with mid- and small-cap companies leading in earnings outperformance across various sectors,...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Pair Trade Signal: LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN) Long Vs. Canara Bank (CBK IN) Short

Long LIC Housing Finance vs. short Canara Bank continues to be flagged as a statistical relative value play. The pair's price ratio is currently...

Gaudenz Schneider

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine

The Nifty200 Momentum30 Index rebalances at the close tomorrow. Since announcement, the adds have outperformed the deletes (but only marginally)....

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Case Study: Time-Based Exit in Two Long-Running Pair Trades

Case study illustrating when to exit mean-reversion pair trades that stall without hitting profit targets or stop-losses.

Gaudenz Schneider

UCO Bank (UCO IN) Vs. IOB (IOB IN): Catch-Up Potential

Price ratio triggers a trade signal as UCO underperforms in this high-beta PSU bank pair. Potential opportunity for mean reversion supported by...

Gaudenz Schneider

Thematic Report : FY25 Earnings Report: Sector Leaders and What’s Shaping FY26

​India Inc. displayed strong resilience in FY25, with mid- and small-cap companies leading in earnings outperformance across various sectors,...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Pair Trade Signal: LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN) Long Vs. Canara Bank (CBK IN) Short

Long LIC Housing Finance vs. short Canara Bank continues to be flagged as a statistical relative value play. The pair's price ratio is currently...

Gaudenz Schneider

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine

The Nifty200 Momentum30 Index rebalances at the close tomorrow. Since announcement, the adds have outperformed the deletes (but only marginally)....

Brian Freitas

India Inc. displayed strong resilience in FY25, with mid- and small-cap companies leading in earnings outperformance across various sectors,...