Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Central banks globally are making rate decisions, with the Fed holding steady while Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, and the UK announce their decisions today.</li>
<li>Mexico and Canada are central banks to watch, with Fitch forecasting both economies to enter recession in 2025 due to their high US trade exposure.</li>
<li>The US's global reciprocal tariffs, set to be revealed on April 2, have significant implications for the global economy, with the potential to influence central bank policies worldwide.</li>
</ul>


Central banks globally are making rate decisions, with the Fed holding steady while Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, and the UK announce their decisions today.
Mexico and Canada are central banks to watch, with Fitch forecasting both economies to enter recession in 2025 due to their high US trade exposure.
The US's global reciprocal tariffs, set to be revealed on April 2, have significant implications for the global economy, with the potential to influence central bank policies worldwide.


Central Banks Hold Steady Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> has reached 22939 on Wednesday, our model indicates that if the index reaches the 23320 target, there would be a 75% probability of pullback.</li>
<li>From the perspective of our time model, the index could continue to rise for at least 1 more week.</li>
<li>We conclude that it's possible that the index keeps rallying 1 more week towards 23320, then a pullback could start - for now the index seems stuck in its downtrend.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) has reached 22939 on Wednesday, our model indicates that if the index reaches the 23320 target, there would be a 75% probability of pullback.
From the perspective of our time model, the index could continue to rise for at least 1 more week.
We conclude that it's possible that the index keeps rallying 1 more week towards 23320, then a pullback could start - for now the index seems stuck in its downtrend.


NIFTY Tactical Outlook: Profit Target Is About To Be Reached, What's Next?

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>Nifty traded in an exceptionally narrow range during a holiday-shortened week, a stark contrast to volatility in other markets.</li>
<li>We highlight Nifty’s relative performance against SPX across both long- and short-term time frames.</li>
<li>Implied volatility softened as the quiet range and muted trading activity put pressure on options pricing.</li>
</ul>


Nifty traded in an exceptionally narrow range during a holiday-shortened week, a stark contrast to volatility in other markets.
We highlight Nifty’s relative performance against SPX across both long- and short-term time frames.
Implied volatility softened as the quiet range and muted trading activity put pressure on options pricing.


Nifty Index Options Weekly (Mar 10–13): Outperforming SPX in Low-Volatility Trade

Head of Trading/ Partner, AceGama Advisors

Sankalp Singh

Head of Trading/ Partner

Proprietary Trading Desk

AceGama Advisors

Trading desk specializing in the Listed & OTC options strategies for risk management & investment purposes.

<ul>
<li>IVs remain subdued, trading sub-12% levels, as Option Markets expect low impact from U.S.-trade tensions. Risk premia compresses in spite of upcoming FOMC event risk. </li>
<li>Vol term-structure has moved further into Contango. Realized Vol continues to underperform.</li>
<li>Vol-Surface is exhibiting interesting behaviour as Skew has compressed while Smile has extended. </li>
</ul>


IVs remain subdued, trading sub-12% levels, as Option Markets expect low impact from U.S.-trade tensions. Risk premia compresses in spite of upcoming FOMC event risk. 
Vol term-structure has moved further into Contango. Realized Vol continues to underperform.
Vol-Surface is exhibiting interesting behaviour as Skew has compressed while Smile has extended. 


NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / IVs Subdued as Options Markets See Low Risk of U.S. Trade Tension Blowup.

<ul>
<li>The Nifty snapped its losing streak with a sharp rebound, rising 1.92% for the week.</li>
<li>Implied volatility struggled to hold up, trading lower through most of the week.</li>
<li>We break down the implied vs. historic vol relationship and what it signals for traders.</li>
</ul>


The Nifty snapped its losing streak with a sharp rebound, rising 1.92% for the week.
Implied volatility struggled to hold up, trading lower through most of the week.
We break down the implied vs. historic vol relationship and what it signals for traders.


Nifty Index Options Weekly (Mar 03 – 07): Rebound Ends Extended Losing Streak

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

Central Banks Hold Steady Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

Reminder. China Mobile (941 HK) will release 2024 results tonight at 19:00h (HK time) and announce their dividend. Large volume traded yesterday in...

Gaudenz Schneider

NIFTY Tactical Outlook: Profit Target Is About To Be Reached, What's Next?

The NIFTY Index has rallied and reached 22939 this week, there is a 75% chance of pullback if it reaches 23320. We see potential for 1 more week...

Nico Rosti

Nifty Index Options Weekly (Mar 10–13): Outperforming SPX in Low-Volatility Trade

Nifty's tight trading range during holiday week contrasts with higher volatility in other markets. We examine Nifty's performance vs SPX over long...

John Ley

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / IVs Subdued as Options Markets See Low Risk of U.S. Trade Tension Blowup.

Option markets not worried about U.S.-trade tensions - IVs remain low. Vol term-structure is in Contango, realized vol underperforms. Vol-Surface...

AceGama Advisors

Nifty Index Options Weekly (Mar 03 – 07): Rebound Ends Extended Losing Streak

Nifty snapped a prolonged losing streak, rising 1.92% for the week as volatility trends shifted. We explore the implications of implied vol vs...

John Ley

Central Banks Hold Steady Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

Reminder. China Mobile (941 HK) will release 2024 results tonight at 19:00h (HK time) and announce their dividend. Large volume traded yesterday in...

Gaudenz Schneider

NIFTY Tactical Outlook: Profit Target Is About To Be Reached, What's Next?

​The NIFTY Index has rallied and reached 22939 this week, there is a 75% chance of pullback if it reaches 23320. We see potential for 1 more week...

Nico Rosti

Nifty Index Options Weekly (Mar 10–13): Outperforming SPX in Low-Volatility Trade

​Nifty's tight trading range during holiday week contrasts with higher volatility in other markets. We examine Nifty's performance vs SPX over long...

John Ley

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / IVs Subdued as Options Markets See Low Risk of U.S. Trade Tension Blowup.

​Option markets not worried about U.S.-trade tensions - IVs remain low. Vol term-structure is in Contango, realized vol underperforms. Vol-Surface...

AceGama Advisors

Nifty Index Options Weekly (Mar 03 – 07): Rebound Ends Extended Losing Streak

Nifty snapped a prolonged losing streak, rising 1.92% for the week as volatility trends shifted. We explore the implications of implied vol vs...

John Ley

The NIFTY Index has rallied and reached 22939 this week, there is a 75% chance of pullback if it reaches 23320. We see potential for 1 more week...

Nifty's tight trading range during holiday week contrasts with higher volatility in other markets. We examine Nifty's performance vs SPX over long...

Option markets not worried about U.S.-trade tensions - IVs remain low. Vol term-structure is in Contango, realized vol underperforms. Vol-Surface...