Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> defied gravity and kept rallying higher for the past 8 weeks. According to our models it's massively OVERBOUGHT and has been so for a while.</li>
<li>While many other Asian markets have pulled back decisively, the NIFTY is just going higher and higher. </li>
<li>Assuming it has its own uncorrelated drivers, where would it be a BUY again, if it pulls back this coming week? Let's discuss this in this WEEKLY insight.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index defied gravity and kept rallying higher for the past 8 weeks. According to our models it's massively OVERBOUGHT and has been so for a while.
While many other Asian markets have pulled back decisively, the NIFTY is just going higher and higher. 
Assuming it has its own uncorrelated drivers, where would it be a BUY again, if it pulls back this coming week? Let's discuss this in this WEEKLY insight.


EQD | WHAT IF The NIFTY Starts to Pullback This Week?

Head of Trading/ Partner, AceGama Advisors

Sankalp Singh

Head of Trading/ Partner

Proprietary Trading Desk

AceGama Advisors

Trading desk specializing in the Listed & OTC options strategies for risk management & investment purposes.

<ul>
<li>Weekly IVs marked significantly higher. Options demand returns post holiday-shortened week. Market focuses on 23.07.2024 Budget &amp; Corporate Earnings announcements. </li>
<li>Put-Call Ratio compression + Rising IVs indicative of call-buying activity. Significant Open-Interest buildup seen in 25000 calls.</li>
<li>Vol Term-structure: Entire curve in Backwardation. Much of which can be attributed to the India Budget event. Curve expected to flatten out post event.</li>
</ul>


Weekly IVs marked significantly higher. Options demand returns post holiday-shortened week. Market focuses on 23.07.2024 Budget &amp; Corporate Earnings announcements. 
Put-Call Ratio compression + Rising IVs indicative of call-buying activity. Significant Open-Interest buildup seen in 25000 calls.
Vol Term-structure: Entire curve in Backwardation. Much of which can be attributed to the India Budget event. Curve expected to flatten out post event.


EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Marked Higher & Vol Curve Inverts ... Its All About the Budget

<ul>
<li>IVs for Monthly &amp; Quarterly contracts rose as options market baked in additional risk premia for the Budget Announcement. </li>
<li>Vega bid &amp; Gamma offered  - Monthly IVs higher by +2.3 vols &amp; Weekly IVs lower by -0.5 vols.  Short-Dated IVs closed lower in spite of upcoming earnings events </li>
<li>Term structure is trading with a kinked shape, with Monthly IVs trading at a markup to rest of the curve</li>
</ul>


IVs for Monthly &amp; Quarterly contracts rose as options market baked in additional risk premia for the Budget Announcement. 
Vega bid &amp; Gamma offered  - Monthly IVs higher by +2.3 vols &amp; Weekly IVs lower by -0.5 vols.  Short-Dated IVs closed lower in spite of upcoming earnings events 
Term structure is trading with a kinked shape, with Monthly IVs trading at a markup to rest of the curve


EQD / NSE Vol Update / Vega Was Bid & Gamma Was Offered

<ul>
<li>Regular Spot-Vol Correlations reasserted - Implied Volatilities (IVs) traded lower as Equity Markets continued making new Highs.</li>
<li>As expected, Vol-Regime Switching Model is stuck in "High &amp; Down" state. IVs projected to grind lower over an elongated period.      </li>
<li>Changes in Vol term-structure + Skew/ Smile compression - indicative of reduced risk-premia for July-end India Budget event.</li>
</ul>


Regular Spot-Vol Correlations reasserted - Implied Volatilities (IVs) traded lower as Equity Markets continued making new Highs.
As expected, Vol-Regime Switching Model is stuck in "High &amp; Down" state. IVs projected to grind lower over an elongated period.      
Changes in Vol term-structure + Skew/ Smile compression - indicative of reduced risk-premia for July-end India Budget event.


EQD / NSE Vol Update / Regular Correlations Take Hold - Vols Drop as Market Soars

<ul>
<li>Implied Volatilities (IVs) continued to rise as the underlying index tried to break above critical resistance - marking a break-down of usual spot-vol correlations.</li>
<li>Vol surface smile &amp; skew characteristics held steady at the 25-Delta point of curve, while dynamics at the 10-Delta zone extended further.</li>
<li>Nifty50 Back-end Term Structure is in Backwardation as Monthly options enjoy markups based on July-end Indian Budget release.   </li>
</ul>


Implied Volatilities (IVs) continued to rise as the underlying index tried to break above critical resistance - marking a break-down of usual spot-vol correlations.
Vol surface smile &amp; skew characteristics held steady at the 25-Delta point of curve, while dynamics at the 10-Delta zone extended further.
Nifty50 Back-end Term Structure is in Backwardation as Monthly options enjoy markups based on July-end Indian Budget release.   


EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Rise in Conjunction with Equities Counter to Regular Spot-Vol Correlation

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

EQD | WHAT IF The NIFTY Starts to Pullback This Week?

The NIFTY Index continues to rally, despite being massively overbought. Which is the right support price area to buy, if the index suddenly pulls...

Nico Rosti

EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Marked Higher & Vol Curve Inverts ... Its All About the Budget

The 23.07.2024 Budget announcement was pegged to be a large event-risk. The event has now taken place , & has had a marked impact on the Options...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Vega Was Bid & Gamma Was Offered

IVs rise as additional risk premia gets baked in for Budget Announcement. Kinked-shaped term structure with Monthly IVs trading at a markup to rest...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Regular Correlations Take Hold - Vols Drop as Market Soars

IVs trade lower as equity markets reach new highs. Vol Regime Model projects continued IV decline. Vol Surface characteristics imply reduced risk...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Rise in Conjunction with Equities Counter to Regular Spot-Vol Correlation

Implied volatilities rise as index tests resistance, spot-vol correlations break down. Nifty50 options show backwardation due to Indian Budget...

AceGama Advisors

EQD | WHAT IF The NIFTY Starts to Pullback This Week?

​The NIFTY Index continues to rally, despite being massively overbought. Which is the right support price area to buy, if the index suddenly pulls...

Nico Rosti

EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Marked Higher & Vol Curve Inverts ... Its All About the Budget

The 23.07.2024 Budget announcement was pegged to be a large event-risk. The event has now taken place , & has had a marked impact on the Options...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Vega Was Bid & Gamma Was Offered

IVs rise as additional risk premia gets baked in for Budget Announcement. Kinked-shaped term structure with Monthly IVs trading at a markup to rest...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Regular Correlations Take Hold - Vols Drop as Market Soars

​IVs trade lower as equity markets reach new highs. Vol Regime Model projects continued IV decline. Vol Surface characteristics imply reduced risk...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Rise in Conjunction with Equities Counter to Regular Spot-Vol Correlation

​Implied volatilities rise as index tests resistance, spot-vol correlations break down. Nifty50 options show backwardation due to Indian Budget...

AceGama Advisors

The NIFTY Index continues to rally, despite being massively overbought. Which is the right support price area to buy, if the index suddenly pulls...

IVs trade lower as equity markets reach new highs. Vol Regime Model projects continued IV decline. Vol Surface characteristics imply reduced risk...

Implied volatilities rise as index tests resistance, spot-vol correlations break down. Nifty50 options show backwardation due to Indian Budget...