Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Overweighting EM versus DM and global resources/deep cyclicals looked like a compelling contrarian bet coming into Q1 as consensus bearishness reached an extreme.</li>
<li><div>If the reflationary theme persists through 2017, EM equities will outperform bonds - the structural decline in ROE which led to very low P/B ratios now looks over.</div></li>
<li><div>The broad improvement in EM relative macro momentum is reflected in net earnings revision momentum (strongest in MSCI AXJ, with India the exception) and factory PMIs, if not…</div></li>
</ul>


Overweighting EM versus DM and global resources/deep cyclicals looked like a compelling contrarian bet coming into Q1 as consensus bearishness reached an extreme.
If the reflationary theme persists through 2017, EM equities will outperform bonds - the structural decline in ROE which led to very low P/B ratios now looks over.
The broad improvement in EM relative macro momentum is reflected in net earnings revision momentum (strongest in MSCI AXJ, with India the exception) and factory PMIs, if not…


2017 Asset Allocation Outlook: Part 1 – Emerging Markets and Commodities

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist, Casino Business Review LLC

Howard J Klein

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist

<ul><li>The author was a senior executive in Trump’s casino organization for 3 years: a view from the inside</li><li>Trump’s public statements and private dealings with Asian associates differ.</li><li>The President-elect’s perceived negativity toward Asian trade policy is not a complaint against specific nations per se, but against what he perceives to have been inept US negotiating strategies.</li></ul>

The author was a senior executive in Trump’s casino organization for 3 years: a view from the insideTrump’s public statements and private dealings with Asian associates differ.The President-elect’s perceived negativity toward Asian trade policy is not a complaint against specific nations per se, but against what he perceives to have been inept US negotiating strategies.

The Trump Presidency: A Look from the Inside Out on Possible Impacts in Asian Economies

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

<p>The global banking system is constructed around the accrual of interest. Credit cards, loans, and other financial products rely on interest rates and lending as one of their central features. In the Islamic world, however, where the very concept of interest is forbidden under Sharia – Islamic law – consumers looking to reconcile their banking needs with their faith are increasingly turning toward Islamic banking systems.</p>

The global banking system is constructed around the accrual of interest. Credit cards, loans, and other financial products rely on interest rates and lending as one of their central features. In the Islamic world, however, where the very concept of interest is forbidden under Sharia – Islamic law – consumers looking to reconcile their banking needs with their faith are increasingly turning toward Islamic banking systems.

Consumer Finance in an Interest-Free World – An Overview of Islamic Banking

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p><strong>Chartonics webcast </strong>Thursday 1 December 2016</p><div><strong>Bracing for early December risk off phase</strong></div><p>To view click on this link: <strong><a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/nNOppOUYGp" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=http://www.screencast.com/t/nNOppOUYGp&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1480654826274000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFoeG0NlUnu_Ji5NyI4j-oXq5r9NA">http://www.screencast.com/t/nNOppOUYGp</a> </strong>6:41 min.</p><div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/017/124/original/CPG%20FRONT%20COVER.png?1480568526" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="17124"></figure><div class="content-caption">Defensive positioning webcast</div>
</div><div>Base case called for a tactical cycle peak for equities in late November ahead of a risk-off phase in the first half of December per our cycle work and a natural US equity stall led by tech. EM's are in a vulnerable position given a firm USD and firm yield levels (even with a corrective dollar and yield dip)…</div>

Chartonics webcast Thursday 1 December 2016Bracing for early December risk off phaseTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/nNOppOUYGp 6:41 min.
Defensive positioning webcast
Base case called for a tactical cycle peak for equities in late November ahead of a risk-off phase in the first half of December per our cycle work and a natural US equity stall led by tech. EM's are in a vulnerable position given a firm USD and firm yield levels (even with a corrective dollar and yield dip)…

Bracing for Early December Risk off Phase - Euro 1.05 Inflection

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

<p>"Jugaad" is the popular Indian word for "Hustle", as the self-proclaimed hustling CEO Travis Kalanick who has been pushing legal boundaries for Uber across cities, learnt during one of his early India visits. He was exhorting Indians to be hustlers during a guest lecture to aspiring tech entrepreneurs.  <strong>And India definitely seems to have lived up to its reputation of Jugaad/Hustlers once again after demonetization, as more than half of the outstanding High-Value notes (Rs8trn out of Rs15.3trn)</strong>…</p>

"Jugaad" is the popular Indian word for "Hustle", as the self-proclaimed hustling CEO Travis Kalanick who has been pushing legal boundaries for Uber across cities, learnt during one of his early India visits. He was exhorting Indians to be hustlers during a guest lecture to aspiring tech entrepreneurs.  And India definitely seems to have lived up to its reputation of Jugaad/Hustlers once again after demonetization, as more than half of the outstanding High-Value notes (Rs8trn out of Rs15.3trn)…

'Indian Hustle' Undermines Govt Efforts to Curb Black Money: Demonetization May Be A Costly Mistake!

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

2017 Asset Allocation Outlook: Part 1 – Emerging Markets and Commodities

Overweighting EM versus DM and global resources/deep cyclicals looked like a compelling contrarian bet coming into Q1 as consensus bearishness...

Sean Maher

The Trump Presidency: A Look from the Inside Out on Possible Impacts in Asian Economies

The author was a senior executive in Trump’s casino organization for 3 years: a view from the inside Trump’s public statements and private...