Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to announce a monetary policy decision on Friday, 6 June 2025.</li>
<li>
Market Expectations: The consensus anticipates a 25-basis-point rate cut, lowering the rate from currently 6.00% to 5.75%. Historically, one in four RBI rate decisions is a surprise to the market.</li>
<li>This Insight investigates past market behavior during comparable RBI policy announcements, unearthing a surprising statistic about how the Nifty 50 might react to June's decision, regardless of the outcome.</li>
</ul>


The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to announce a monetary policy decision on Friday, 6 June 2025.

Market Expectations: The consensus anticipates a 25-basis-point rate cut, lowering the rate from currently 6.00% to 5.75%. Historically, one in four RBI rate decisions is a surprise to the market.
This Insight investigates past market behavior during comparable RBI policy announcements, unearthing a surprising statistic about how the Nifty 50 might react to June's decision, regardless of the outcome.


Nifty 50 and the RBI Rate Decision: History Has a Pattern

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Nifty had limited movement this week with the rally off the April low stalling out.</li>
<li>Elevated volatility metrics contrast with an otherwise quiet tape over the past week. We recommend taking some chips off the table, taking advantage of vol levels. </li>
<li>Nifty has given up about 1/2 its outperformance vs the SP500 over the past couple of weeks. </li>
</ul>


Nifty had limited movement this week with the rally off the April low stalling out.
Elevated volatility metrics contrast with an otherwise quiet tape over the past week. We recommend taking some chips off the table, taking advantage of vol levels. 
Nifty has given up about 1/2 its outperformance vs the SP500 over the past couple of weeks. 


Nifty Index Options Weekly (May 26 – 30): Rally Pauses, Vol Holds at Elevated Levels

<ul>
<li>Cross-Market volatility snapshot highlighting option opportunities. Today's opportunities are in the Nifty 50 and in Bitcoin</li>
<li>Nifty 50: The index crossed the 50-day moving average, signaling a bullish trend. Hedging gains is recommended due to expected macroeconomic uncertainty in Q1 2025.</li>
<li>Bitcoin: Surpassed $100,000, driven by positive sentiment towards the incoming US President's crypto-friendly stance. Options strategies are suggested, plus how a synthetic Bitcoin bond compares to a corporate bond.</li>
</ul>


Cross-Market volatility snapshot highlighting option opportunities. Today's opportunities are in the Nifty 50 and in Bitcoin
Nifty 50: The index crossed the 50-day moving average, signaling a bullish trend. Hedging gains is recommended due to expected macroeconomic uncertainty in Q1 2025.
Bitcoin: Surpassed $100,000, driven by positive sentiment towards the incoming US President's crypto-friendly stance. Options strategies are suggested, plus how a synthetic Bitcoin bond compares to a corporate bond.


EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - From Nifty 50 to Bitcoin, Plus BTC-Bond Special

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> has broken its four-week decline and reversed direction. This raises the prospect for a bull run.</li>
<li>Continued decline or relief rally? Technical and fundamental arguments lend support to both directional views.</li>
<li>We identify options with attractive cost vs. upside profiles to implement tactical trades in this environment.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) has broken its four-week decline and reversed direction. This raises the prospect for a bull run.
Continued decline or relief rally? Technical and fundamental arguments lend support to both directional views.
We identify options with attractive cost vs. upside profiles to implement tactical trades in this environment.


EQD | Nifty 50 – Option Strategy for Bulls and Bears

Head of Trading/ Partner, AceGama Advisors

Sankalp Singh

Head of Trading/ Partner

Proprietary Trading Desk

AceGama Advisors

Trading desk specializing in the Listed & OTC options strategies for risk management & investment purposes.

<ul>
<li>IVs Spike with Election Results release on 04-June-2024. Post event there's a risk of large IV-crush regardless of the result.</li>
<li>Current Vol-state is "High &amp; Up". Wait for the switch to "High &amp; Down" before initiating new risk-premia harvesting strategies</li>
<li>Weekly IVs have received large markups due to elections. Entire Vol Curve is now in Backwardation -  curve inversion at extreme levels</li>
</ul>


IVs Spike with Election Results release on 04-June-2024. Post event there's a risk of large IV-crush regardless of the result.
Current Vol-state is "High &amp; Up". Wait for the switch to "High &amp; Down" before initiating new risk-premia harvesting strategies
Weekly IVs have received large markups due to elections. Entire Vol Curve is now in Backwardation -  curve inversion at extreme levels


EQD / Weekly Vol Update / IVs Spike with Election Results Round the Corner

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

Nifty 50 and the RBI Rate Decision: History Has a Pattern

On Friday, 10:00 am IST the RBI will release its monetary policy statement - live broadcast on the RBI's youtube channel. Both the Nifty 50 and the...

Gaudenz Schneider

Nifty Index Options Weekly (May 26 – 30): Rally Pauses, Vol Holds at Elevated Levels

Nifty's rally stalls, volatility remains high, we recommend reducing exposure while also taking advantage of elevtaed volatility.

John Ley

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - From Nifty 50 to Bitcoin, Plus BTC-Bond Special

Opportunities in Nifty 50 and Bitcoin options due to bullish trends and positive sentiment. Global volatility overview of 15+ markets and...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Nifty 50 – Option Strategy for Bulls and Bears

The NIFTY 50 snaped its four-week decline. Options with attractive cost vs. upside profile make for tactical trades ahead of a recovery rally, or...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD / Weekly Vol Update / IVs Spike with Election Results Round the Corner

Vols spiking! Risk of IV-crush post elections. Wait for Vol regime switch to "High & Down" to initiate new short Gamma positions. Vol Curve...

AceGama Advisors

Nifty 50 and the RBI Rate Decision: History Has a Pattern

On Friday, 10:00 am IST the RBI will release its monetary policy statement - live broadcast on the RBI's youtube channel. Both the Nifty 50 and the...

Gaudenz Schneider

Nifty Index Options Weekly (May 26 – 30): Rally Pauses, Vol Holds at Elevated Levels

​Nifty's rally stalls, volatility remains high, we recommend reducing exposure while also taking advantage of elevtaed volatility.

John Ley

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - From Nifty 50 to Bitcoin, Plus BTC-Bond Special

​Opportunities in Nifty 50 and Bitcoin options due to bullish trends and positive sentiment. Global volatility overview of 15+ markets and...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Nifty 50 – Option Strategy for Bulls and Bears

​The NIFTY 50 snaped its four-week decline. Options with attractive cost vs. upside profile make for tactical trades ahead of a recovery rally, or...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD / Weekly Vol Update / IVs Spike with Election Results Round the Corner

​Vols spiking! Risk of IV-crush post elections. Wait for Vol regime switch to "High & Down" to initiate new short Gamma positions. Vol Curve...

AceGama Advisors

Nifty's rally stalls, volatility remains high, we recommend reducing exposure while also taking advantage of elevtaed volatility.

Opportunities in Nifty 50 and Bitcoin options due to bullish trends and positive sentiment. Global volatility overview of 15+ markets and...

The NIFTY 50 snaped its four-week decline. Options with attractive cost vs. upside profile make for tactical trades ahead of a recovery rally, or...

Vols spiking! Risk of IV-crush post elections. Wait for Vol regime switch to "High & Down" to initiate new short Gamma positions. Vol Curve...