Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The "January Effect," where investors repurchase stocks previously sold for tax-loss harvesting purposes at the end of December creates demand.</li>
<li>The Nifty 50 has experienced the Santa Claus rally in 9 out of the past 10 years, averaging a 1.76% return during this period.</li>
<li>Government shutdown risks in the US, rising treasury yields, and concerns about overvalued markets could dampen investor enthusiasm in 2024</li>
</ul>


The "January Effect," where investors repurchase stocks previously sold for tax-loss harvesting purposes at the end of December creates demand.
The Nifty 50 has experienced the Santa Claus rally in 9 out of the past 10 years, averaging a 1.76% return during this period.
Government shutdown risks in the US, rising treasury yields, and concerns about overvalued markets could dampen investor enthusiasm in 2024


Is the Santa Claus Rally a Myth or Market Reality?

<ul>
<li>Inflation spiked in late 2024 due to food price pressures but is projected to average 4.8% in FY25, with moderation expected from a strong rabi season and seasonal corrections.</li>
<li>Weights of commodities experiencing inflation over 4% in the CPI basket, reduced from 79.0% in August 2022 to 41.6% in November 2024.</li>
<li>Inflation is expected to moderate with a strong rabi season, record kharif production, and seasonal corrections in vegetable prices. However, risks from rising edible oil prices, and global factors persist</li>
</ul>


Inflation spiked in late 2024 due to food price pressures but is projected to average 4.8% in FY25, with moderation expected from a strong rabi season and seasonal corrections.
Weights of commodities experiencing inflation over 4% in the CPI basket, reduced from 79.0% in August 2022 to 41.6% in November 2024.
Inflation is expected to moderate with a strong rabi season, record kharif production, and seasonal corrections in vegetable prices. However, risks from rising edible oil prices, and global factors persist


Charted Insights: India's Inflation Outlook for 2025; More Chances of Downside, Rather Than Upside

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
As the year comes to its end, the trading calendar is impacted by two shortened weeks, with the Christmas holiday and New Year’s Day both falling midweek.</li>
<li>Holidays market trends can be affected by various non-market factors but it's always good to check the indexes probability of trend reversals, to avoid surprises.
</li>
<li>In this insight, we’ll take a quick look at the major Asia-Pacific market indices—a 'Christmas Carousel of Odds' for Asian markets, if you will.</li>
</ul>



As the year comes to its end, the trading calendar is impacted by two shortened weeks, with the Christmas holiday and New Year’s Day both falling midweek.
Holidays market trends can be affected by various non-market factors but it's always good to check the indexes probability of trend reversals, to avoid surprises.

In this insight, we’ll take a quick look at the major Asia-Pacific market indices—a 'Christmas Carousel of Odds' for Asian markets, if you will.


HSI, Nikkei 225, NIFTY 50, Kospi 200, ASX 200, CSI 300: Year-End Trends and Holiday Market Moves!

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> has been rallying more than 5% since its bottom 4 weeks ago. However the index has not returned to its all time high (26277).</li>
<li>Our models indicate that the index is starting to be overbought, but is not yet super-overbought, so the question is: will it continue higher? Or will it pullback soon?</li>
<li>This coming week will be crucial to sustain momentum and possibly accelerate, our models say that when this pattern is encountered the index can rally up to 7-8 weeks.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index has been rallying more than 5% since its bottom 4 weeks ago. However the index has not returned to its all time high (26277).
Our models indicate that the index is starting to be overbought, but is not yet super-overbought, so the question is: will it continue higher? Or will it pullback soon?
This coming week will be crucial to sustain momentum and possibly accelerate, our models say that when this pattern is encountered the index can rally up to 7-8 weeks.


EQD | NIFTY at a Fork: Is the Rally Over? or Can It Stretch for 3 More Weeks?

Head of Trading/ Partner, AceGama Advisors

Sankalp Singh

Head of Trading/ Partner

Proprietary Trading Desk

AceGama Advisors

Trading desk specializing in the Listed & OTC options strategies for risk management & investment purposes.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Short-Date IVs reprice higher as active contract rolls over to 12.12.2024 expiry. Elevated risk-premia justified as contracts capture RBI rate decision &amp; U.S. NFP event risks.</li>
<li>Re-Pricing of front-end IVs has kicked Vol term-structure into Backwardation. Monthly &amp; Quarterly IVs remain unchanged. Current Vol curve shape is at odds with improving sentiment in underlying Index.</li>
<li>Strategic Implications: (1) Avoid Short Gamma exposure. (2) Continue allocation to Short Vega + Short Smile structures. (3) Look for Nifty50 trading range to stabilize as trigger for Skew harvesting.   </li>
</ul>


Short-Date IVs reprice higher as active contract rolls over to 12.12.2024 expiry. Elevated risk-premia justified as contracts capture RBI rate decision &amp; U.S. NFP event risks.
Re-Pricing of front-end IVs has kicked Vol term-structure into Backwardation. Monthly &amp; Quarterly IVs remain unchanged. Current Vol curve shape is at odds with improving sentiment in underlying Index.
Strategic Implications: (1) Avoid Short Gamma exposure. (2) Continue allocation to Short Vega + Short Smile structures. (3) Look for Nifty50 trading range to stabilize as trigger for Skew harvesting.   


EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / Vol Term-Structure Inverts as Front-End IVs Jump to 15.0%

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

Is the Santa Claus Rally a Myth or Market Reality?

Investors repurchasing stocks in January after tax-loss harvesting, Nifty 50's Santa Claus rally, but 2024 faces risks of government shutdown,...

Nimish Maheshwari

Charted Insights: India's Inflation Outlook for 2025; More Chances of Downside, Rather Than Upside

Inflation spiked in late 2024 due to food price pressures, but projected to average 4.8% in FY25 with moderation expected from strong rabi season...

Nimish Maheshwari

HSI, Nikkei 225, NIFTY 50, Kospi 200, ASX 200, CSI 300: Year-End Trends and Holiday Market Moves!

Trading calendar has 2 upcoming shortened weeks, this insight is offer analysis of the major Asia/Pacific indices to highlight potential sudden...

Nico Rosti

EQD | NIFTY at a Fork: Is the Rally Over? or Can It Stretch for 3 More Weeks?

The NIFTY 50 this week broke through the support level at 24407 (50% probability of reversal) and got closer to the 23718 level (75% probability of...

Nico Rosti

EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / Vol Term-Structure Inverts as Front-End IVs Jump to 15.0%

Previously noted that the inverted Vol term-structure was out of phase with a rallying NIFTY50. The term-structure has now flattened & moved into...

AceGama Advisors

Is the Santa Claus Rally a Myth or Market Reality?

​Investors repurchasing stocks in January after tax-loss harvesting, Nifty 50's Santa Claus rally, but 2024 faces risks of government shutdown,...

Nimish Maheshwari

Charted Insights: India's Inflation Outlook for 2025; More Chances of Downside, Rather Than Upside

​Inflation spiked in late 2024 due to food price pressures, but projected to average 4.8% in FY25 with moderation expected from strong rabi season...

Nimish Maheshwari

HSI, Nikkei 225, NIFTY 50, Kospi 200, ASX 200, CSI 300: Year-End Trends and Holiday Market Moves!

​Trading calendar has 2 upcoming shortened weeks, this insight is offer analysis of the major Asia/Pacific indices to highlight potential sudden...

Nico Rosti

EQD | NIFTY at a Fork: Is the Rally Over? or Can It Stretch for 3 More Weeks?

The NIFTY 50 this week broke through the support level at 24407 (50% probability of reversal) and got closer to the 23718 level (75% probability of...

Nico Rosti

EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / Vol Term-Structure Inverts as Front-End IVs Jump to 15.0%

Previously noted that the inverted Vol term-structure was out of phase with a rallying NIFTY50. The term-structure has now flattened & moved into...

AceGama Advisors

Investors repurchasing stocks in January after tax-loss harvesting, Nifty 50's Santa Claus rally, but 2024 faces risks of government shutdown,...

Inflation spiked in late 2024 due to food price pressures, but projected to average 4.8% in FY25 with moderation expected from strong rabi season...

Trading calendar has 2 upcoming shortened weeks, this insight is offer analysis of the major Asia/Pacific indices to highlight potential sudden...