Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We are back with our regular weekly updates after taking an earnings break and a Diwali vacation. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-india-small-cap" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32064:1" rel="noopener">Ishares Msci India Small-Cap (SMIN US)</a>  appears to be where the most market action is currently. We also maintain a long bias on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honasa-consumer-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36117:1" rel="noopener">Honasa Consumer (HONASA IN)</a> is the star of the week that is playing an innovative narrative that which street seems to like, but warrants attention. </li>
</ul>


We are back with our regular weekly updates after taking an earnings break and a Diwali vacation. 

Ishares Msci India Small-Cap (SMIN US)  appears to be where the most market action is currently. We also maintain a long bias on the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX). 

Honasa Consumer (HONASA IN) is the star of the week that is playing an innovative narrative that which street seems to like, but warrants attention. 


[Week 11] Namaste India 🙏 | Honasa's Innovation or Innovative Narrative?

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Giving Thanks

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Existing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23700:1" rel="noopener">Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN)</a> shareholders are looking to sell 60.85m shares and raise between INR 28.9-30.4bn (US$347-365m) giving the company a market cap of between US$2.31-2.44bn.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23700:1" rel="noopener">Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN)</a> will have a float of around 10% at the time of listing and that will increase close to 30% after the pre-IPO lock-up ends.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23700:1" rel="noopener">Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN)</a> could be added to global indices in May and June, but inclusion in local indices with meaningful tracking assets will take longer.</li>
</ul>


Existing Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN) shareholders are looking to sell 60.85m shares and raise between INR 28.9-30.4bn (US$347-365m) giving the company a market cap of between US$2.31-2.44bn.

Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN) will have a float of around 10% at the time of listing and that will increase close to 30% after the pre-IPO lock-up ends.

Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN) could be added to global indices in May and June, but inclusion in local indices with meaningful tracking assets will take longer.


Tata Technologies IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Ride the Wave

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> closed the last 2 weeks up (CC=+2), reversing from an oversold condition. This week the index started going up again, but it's not going anywhere...</li>
<li>The index barely crossed the Q1 resistance at 19334, but if closes this week up, the WEEKLY CC=+3 condition will be an "OVERBOUGHT" signal, a pullback could start.</li>
<li>Going SHORT is probably not worth it, we don't see a large pullback coming, it's probably better to simply hedge your positions.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index closed the last 2 weeks up (CC=+2), reversing from an oversold condition. This week the index started going up again, but it's not going anywhere...
The index barely crossed the Q1 resistance at 19334, but if closes this week up, the WEEKLY CC=+3 condition will be an "OVERBOUGHT" signal, a pullback could start.
Going SHORT is probably not worth it, we don't see a large pullback coming, it's probably better to simply hedge your positions.


EQD | Is It Time for a NIFTY Index Pullback?

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

[Week 11] Namaste India 🙏 | Honasa's Innovation or Innovative Narrative?

Weekly updates are back after a break, with focus on iShares MSCI India Small-Cap and NIFTY Index. Honasa Consumer's innovative narrative is...

Pranav Bhavsar

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Giving Thanks

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

Tata Technologies IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion

Tata Technologies is expected to list on 5 Dec. The stock will not get Fast Entry due to low float, but will be included in global indices in May...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Ride the Wave

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

EQD | Is It Time for a NIFTY Index Pullback?

The NIFTY Index has rebounded from oversold levels but it's not going anywhere. It may pullback this week or the next. Shorting may not be...

Nico Rosti

[Week 11] Namaste India 🙏 | Honasa's Innovation or Innovative Narrative?

​Weekly updates are back after a break, with focus on iShares MSCI India Small-Cap and NIFTY Index. Honasa Consumer's innovative narrative is...

Pranav Bhavsar

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Giving Thanks

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

Tata Technologies IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion

Tata Technologies is expected to list on 5 Dec. The stock will not get Fast Entry due to low float, but will be included in global indices in May...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Ride the Wave

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

EQD | Is It Time for a NIFTY Index Pullback?

​The NIFTY Index has rebounded from oversold levels but it's not going anywhere. It may pullback this week or the next. Shorting may not be...

Nico Rosti

Weekly updates are back after a break, with focus on iShares MSCI India Small-Cap and NIFTY Index. Honasa Consumer's innovative narrative is...

The NIFTY Index has rebounded from oversold levels but it's not going anywhere. It may pullback this week or the next. Shorting may not be...