Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>
Context: Central Bank rate decisions, index changes and political events can move markets and affect volatility. Exchange holidays and option expiration schedules might influence liquidity on these days.</li>
<li>
Highlights: The week of July 7 to July 11 is packed with the expiration of the pause on reciprocal tariffs, two Central Bank decisions, and options expiries.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.</li>
</ul>



Context: Central Bank rate decisions, index changes and political events can move markets and affect volatility. Exchange holidays and option expiration schedules might influence liquidity on these days.

Highlights: The week of July 7 to July 11 is packed with the expiration of the pause on reciprocal tariffs, two Central Bank decisions, and options expiries.

Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.


Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Across markets realized volatility generally came in below implied, making June favorable for volatility sellers.</li>
<li>July has historically rewarded vol sellers; we reference a prior Insight on volatility during Trump’s first term highlighting a large deviation from average in July.</li>
<li>Average July returns are mixed, but there are clear standouts among the macro markets.</li>
</ul>


Across markets realized volatility generally came in below implied, making June favorable for volatility sellers.
July has historically rewarded vol sellers; we reference a prior Insight on volatility during Trump’s first term highlighting a large deviation from average in July.
Average July returns are mixed, but there are clear standouts among the macro markets.


Global Macro Outlook (July): Trump Volatility Playbook Offers Clues for July Positioning

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week June 30 - July 4.</li>
<li>US Markets will be closed for Independence Day celebrations on July 4th.</li>
<li>Most stocks and global indices appear to be overbought or nearly overbought. 10-year US Treasuries Futures are also overbought. Commodities like Gold and Crude Oil are down. </li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week June 30 - July 4.
US Markets will be closed for Independence Day celebrations on July 4th.
Most stocks and global indices appear to be overbought or nearly overbought. 10-year US Treasuries Futures are also overbought. Commodities like Gold and Crude Oil are down. 


Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of June 30 – July 4

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following the results of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (9432 JP)</a>'s tender offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data Corp (9613 JP)</a>, NTT Data will be deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> at the close on 3 July. The stock is up a fair bit from its lows.</li>
<li>Nearly all the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data Corp</a> shares not tendered will be held by passives and there will be selling in the stock as index providers move the float lower/delete.</li>
</ul>


Following the results of NTT (9432 JP)'s tender offer for NTT Data Corp (9613 JP), NTT Data will be deleted from the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX).

ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) will be added to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) at the close on 3 July. The stock is up a fair bit from its lows.
Nearly all the NTT Data Corp shares not tendered will be held by passives and there will be selling in the stock as index providers move the float lower/delete.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Rohm (6963) To Replace NTT Data Group (9613)

<ul>
<li>
Context: After three consecutive down weeks, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> has entered oversold territory, triggering a potential upside signal in quantitative models.</li>
<li>
Trade Idea: With signs pointing to a short-term reversal, a Bull Call Spread strategy offers high return potential (~12x premium) with limited upfront cost. </li>
<li>
Why Read: This Insight presents a timely, actionable trade idea with a well-defined risk/reward profile—ideal for investors seeking tactical exposure. Details Provided.</li>
</ul>



Context: After three consecutive down weeks, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) has entered oversold territory, triggering a potential upside signal in quantitative models.

Trade Idea: With signs pointing to a short-term reversal, a Bull Call Spread strategy offers high return potential (~12x premium) with limited upfront cost. 

Why Read: This Insight presents a timely, actionable trade idea with a well-defined risk/reward profile—ideal for investors seeking tactical exposure. Details Provided.


Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) Hits Oversold: Your High-Potential Options Strategy

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

The Month Ahead: Key Events in July 2025

Market volatility can be influenced by Central Bank decisions, index changes, and political events. Plan ahead for investment and trading decisions.

Gaudenz Schneider

Global Macro Outlook (July): Trump Volatility Playbook Offers Clues for July Positioning

An in-depth look at price and volatilty across macro markets. July has historically been fertile ground for volatiilty sellers and we take a deeper...

John Ley

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of June 30 – July 4

Many Asian/Pacific indices and stocks are overbought, US stocks are not yet overbought (apart from NVDA), Gold and Crude oil are down, 10-Year US...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Rohm (6963) To Replace NTT Data Group (9613)

Rohm has outperformed its peers by 4.4% since the announcement of NKY inclusion. Day 1 outperformance was 7.5% and part of those gains were given...

Brian Freitas

Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) Hits Oversold: Your High-Potential Options Strategy

Toyota Motor (7203 JP // TM US) may be poised for a short-term rebound, making a Bull Call Spread strategy an attractive tactical trade idea with...

Gaudenz Schneider

The Month Ahead: Key Events in July 2025

​Market volatility can be influenced by Central Bank decisions, index changes, and political events. Plan ahead for investment and trading decisions.

Gaudenz Schneider

Global Macro Outlook (July): Trump Volatility Playbook Offers Clues for July Positioning

An in-depth look at price and volatilty across macro markets. July has historically been fertile ground for volatiilty sellers and we take a deeper...

John Ley

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of June 30 – July 4

Many Asian/Pacific indices and stocks are overbought, US stocks are not yet overbought (apart from NVDA), Gold and Crude oil are down, 10-Year US...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Rohm (6963) To Replace NTT Data Group (9613)

Rohm has outperformed its peers by 4.4% since the announcement of NKY inclusion. Day 1 outperformance was 7.5% and part of those gains were given...

Brian Freitas

Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) Hits Oversold: Your High-Potential Options Strategy

​Toyota Motor (7203 JP // TM US) may be poised for a short-term rebound, making a Bull Call Spread strategy an attractive tactical trade idea with...

Gaudenz Schneider

Market volatility can be influenced by Central Bank decisions, index changes, and political events. Plan ahead for investment and trading decisions.

Toyota Motor (7203 JP // TM US) may be poised for a short-term rebound, making a Bull Call Spread strategy an attractive tactical trade idea with...