Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio returned -2.89% in November versus +1.72% for its benchmark index. The HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 33% to 45% since inception.</li>
<li>The portfolio continues to generate 57% of its returns from alpha (idiosyncratic returns) while maintaining a Sharpe ratio of 2.19 YTD.</li>
<li>We have sold positions in the materials and industrials sectors and added positions in telecom, gold, and insurance industries at the end of November.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio returned -2.89% in November versus +1.72% for its benchmark index. The HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 33% to 45% since inception.
The portfolio continues to generate 57% of its returns from alpha (idiosyncratic returns) while maintaining a Sharpe ratio of 2.19 YTD.
We have sold positions in the materials and industrials sectors and added positions in telecom, gold, and insurance industries at the end of November.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (November 2025)

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong has pulled back this month as the U.S. trade war intensifies, however it remains in a Secular Bull Market.</li>
<li>Materials and Healthcare sectors continue to outperform YTD, with Technology coming in a distant 3rd place.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hengan-international-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29:1" rel="noopener">Hengan International Group (1044 HK)</a>  had multiple breakouts relative to MSCI Asian indexes and on an absolute basis.  Analysts' recommendations are split as the shares trade at their target price.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong has pulled back this month as the U.S. trade war intensifies, however it remains in a Secular Bull Market.
Materials and Healthcare sectors continue to outperform YTD, with Technology coming in a distant 3rd place.

Hengan International Group (1044 HK)  had multiple breakouts relative to MSCI Asian indexes and on an absolute basis.  Analysts' recommendations are split as the shares trade at their target price.



Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns - HONG KONG (October 18)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>’s offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/org-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17510:1" rel="noopener">ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)</a> is HK$7.21 with a 50% minimum acceptance condition. The first closing date is 10 January.  </li>
<li>CCASS data shows that Mr Wei has tendered (22.01% of outstanding shares). Including acceptances, ORG’s shareholding was 46.63% of outstanding shares as of 24 December.</li>
<li>The Board supports the offer, and it is close to being declared unconditional. At the last close and 25 January payment, the gross/annualized spread was 0.8%/10.9%.</li>
</ul>



CPMC Holdings (906 HK)’s offer from ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH) is HK$7.21 with a 50% minimum acceptance condition. The first closing date is 10 January.  
CCASS data shows that Mr Wei has tendered (22.01% of outstanding shares). Including acceptances, ORG’s shareholding was 46.63% of outstanding shares as of 24 December.
The Board supports the offer, and it is close to being declared unconditional. At the last close and 25 January payment, the gross/annualized spread was 0.8%/10.9%.


CPMC Holdings (906 HK): On the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional

Greatview Aseptic Packaging / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>'s largest customer, has ceased to be a substantial shareholder. Mengniu opposes the Shandong Xinjufeng offer. </li>
<li>This development suggests that Mengniu has low confidence in a management competing offer and will likely shift its business away from GA Pack.</li>
<li>The stake sale will help the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-xinjufeng-technology-packaging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36744:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)</a> offer turn unconditional as it will nudge minorities to tender, partly due to GA Pack’s uncertain outlook.  </li>
</ul>



China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)'s largest customer, has ceased to be a substantial shareholder. Mengniu opposes the Shandong Xinjufeng offer. 
This development suggests that Mengniu has low confidence in a management competing offer and will likely shift its business away from GA Pack.
The stake sale will help the Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) offer turn unconditional as it will nudge minorities to tender, partly due to GA Pack’s uncertain outlook.  


GA Pack (468 HK): Shandong Xinjufeng’s Offer Gets a Boost as Mengniu Sells Down

<ul>
<li>On 20 December, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-xinjufeng-technology-packaging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36744:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)</a> satisfied the precondition for its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a> offer. The offer document will be despatched by 27 December.</li>
<li>Analysing the EGM vote on 18 October suggests that the 50% minimum acceptance condition will be met if no competing management offer is made. </li>
<li>Management will oppose the offer, but the last EGM protest votes suggest that many minorities will ignore management. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread was 2.3%/25.3%.</li>
</ul>


On 20 December, Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) satisfied the precondition for its Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) offer. The offer document will be despatched by 27 December.
Analysing the EGM vote on 18 October suggests that the 50% minimum acceptance condition will be met if no competing management offer is made. 
Management will oppose the offer, but the last EGM protest votes suggest that many minorities will ignore management. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread was 2.3%/25.3%.


Hong Kong

Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited produces a wide range of containerboard products. The Company primarily produces linerboard, including kraft linerboard, test linerboard, white top linerboard, high performance corrugating medium and coated duplex board.

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Nine Dragons Paper (2689 HK)

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (November 2025)

The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio returned -2.89% in November versus +1.72% for its benchmark index. The HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong...

David Mudd

Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns - HONG KONG (October 18)

Hong Kong has pulled back this month as the U.S. trade war intensifies, however it remains in a Secular Bull Market. Materials and Healthcare...

David Mudd

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): On the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional

Based on CCASS data, ORG’s shareholding, including acceptances, is 50.10% of outstanding shares as of 7 January. Therefore, the offer has become...

Arun George

GA Pack (468 HK): Shandong Xinjufeng’s Offer Gets a Boost as Mengniu Sells Down

The stake sale will help the Shandong Xinjufeng offer turn unconditional as it will nudge minorities to tender, partly due to GA Pack’s uncertain...

Arun George

GA Pack (468 HK): The State of Play

Management will oppose the offer, but the last EGM protest votes suggest that many minorities will ignore management. At the last close, the gross...

Arun George

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