Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the review period complete, we expect one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> in December if the index committee continues to use a 6-month minimum listing history.</li>
<li>With net inflows to mainland China ETFs over the last few months, passive trackers will need to trade between 9-25 days of ADV on the potential add and delete.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-in" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31062:1" rel="noopener">SMIC (688981 CH)</a> will be capped and there will be reverse funding flows on the index constituents. One-way turnover is estimated at 1.8% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY2,580m.</li>
</ul>


With the review period complete, we expect one change for the STAR50 INDEX in December if the index committee continues to use a 6-month minimum listing history.
With net inflows to mainland China ETFs over the last few months, passive trackers will need to trade between 9-25 days of ADV on the potential add and delete.

SMIC (688981 CH) will be capped and there will be reverse funding flows on the index constituents. One-way turnover is estimated at 1.8% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY2,580m.


STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact Expected on the Changes

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential ADDs and DELs for the STAR 50 index during the December 2023 Rebalance event.</li>
<li>I currently expect one ADD and one DEL for the STAR 50 index in December 2023.</li>
</ul>


STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential ADDs and DELs for the STAR 50 index during the December 2023 Rebalance event.
I currently expect one ADD and one DEL for the STAR 50 index in December 2023.


Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Dec 23: One ADD and One DEL; Ninebot Could Underperform AIMA

Brilliance China Automotive / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>It was a busy Friday with a bunch of indices rebalancing at the close and big volumes trading on a lot of stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brilliance-china-automotive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:469:1" rel="noopener">Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK)</a> had a good week with the stock rallying on Thursday and Friday on huge volumes amid expectations of upcoming passive buying.</li>
<li>A quiet week for ETFs with mainland China ETFs seeing some outflows after the huge inflows over the last couple of months.</li>
</ul>


It was a busy Friday with a bunch of indices rebalancing at the close and big volumes trading on a lot of stocks.

Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK) had a good week with the stock rallying on Thursday and Friday on huge volumes amid expectations of upcoming passive buying.
A quiet week for ETFs with mainland China ETFs seeing some outflows after the huge inflows over the last couple of months.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, CSI500, STAR50, FnGuide Top10

<ul>
<li>The review period for the December rebalance ends 31 October. We expect the changes to be announced 24 November with the implementation taking place after the close on 8 December.</li>
<li>We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history resulting in one change to the index.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 1.6% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 2,259m. The impact on the deletion will be much larger than that on the inclusion.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the December rebalance ends 31 October. We expect the changes to be announced 24 November with the implementation taking place after the close on 8 December.
We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history resulting in one change to the index.
One way turnover is estimated at 1.6% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 2,259m. The impact on the deletion will be much larger than that on the inclusion.


STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Bigger Tracking AUM = Bigger Impact

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>This is now the third Int'l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.</li>
<li>Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).</li>
<li>Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.</li>
</ul>


This is now the third Int'l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.
Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).
Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.


U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

China

Ninebot Limited researches, develops, and manufactures robots. The Company produces and markets balance bikes, scooters, children cars, karts, smart home service robots, intelligent public service robots, and other products. Ninebot markets its products across worldwide.

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Ninebot (689009 CH)

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact Expected on the Changes

There could be 1 index change in Dec. The ETF inflows over the last few months results in passives needing to trade 9-25x ADV on the add/delete....

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Dec 23: One ADD and One DEL; Ninebot Could Underperform AIMA

Final Expectations for the Dec 23 STAR 50 Rebalance: Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical (688506 CH) is an expected ADD and Ninebot (689009 CH) is an...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, CSI500, STAR50, FnGuide Top10

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Bigger Tracking AUM = Bigger Impact

There could be one change in December resulting in a one-way turnover of 1.6% and a one-way trade of CNY 2,259m. The impact of passive trading on...

Brian Freitas

U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

This is now the third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes with bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals,...

Vermilion Research

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