Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In January, the four China-listed express companies reported volatile operating statistics</li>
<li>Total parcel volume grew by 19% Y/Y; price momentum ranged from +14% to -6%</li>
<li>We believe the market is unsettled following the formation of a SF Hldg - J&amp;T alliance</li>
</ul>


In January, the four China-listed express companies reported volatile operating statistics
Total parcel volume grew by 19% Y/Y; price momentum ranged from +14% to -6%
We believe the market is unsettled following the formation of a SF Hldg - J&amp;T alliance


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Lots of Noise in January 2026 Numbers From Four China-Listed Firms

<ul>
<li>Industry parcel volume growth slowed dramatically in Q425, but SF gained volume share</li>
<li>ZTO Express continued to report slow growth, insufficient to drive down unit costs</li>
<li>Did growth of Chinese "instant retail" impact mainstream express segment in Q425?</li>
</ul>


Industry parcel volume growth slowed dramatically in Q425, but SF gained volume share
ZTO Express continued to report slow growth, insufficient to drive down unit costs
Did growth of Chinese "instant retail" impact mainstream express segment in Q425?


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q425 Volume, ASP Data Show SF Holding Strength, ZTO Struggles

<ul>
<li>A new cross-shareholding agreement between SF and J&amp;T is a neat strategic fit for both</li>
<li>SF gains improved distribution in SE Asia (and beyond), J&amp;T gets access to X-border assets</li>
<li>Listed Chinese express names mostly unaffected, but deal challenges Alibaba, DHL, Flash</li>
</ul>


A new cross-shareholding agreement between SF and J&amp;T is a neat strategic fit for both
SF gains improved distribution in SE Asia (and beyond), J&amp;T gets access to X-border assets
Listed Chinese express names mostly unaffected, but deal challenges Alibaba, DHL, Flash


SF Hldg and J&T Announce New Cross-Shareholding | Good Strategic Fit | Losers Are BABA, DHL, Flash

Equity Capital Markets

Hive Box Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>No word from the parcel locker company after it filed to list in Hong Kong in August 2024</li>
<li>But we've seen multiple media reports of a sticky dispute with a shareholder (Asia Forge)</li>
<li>Besides the legal dispute, no new information on 2024 profitability, and no help from comps</li>
</ul>


No word from the parcel locker company after it filed to list in Hong Kong in August 2024
But we've seen multiple media reports of a sticky dispute with a shareholder (Asia Forge)
Besides the legal dispute, no new information on 2024 profitability, and no help from comps


Update on Hive Box Holdings IPO Process | Legal Dispute, Questions About Profitability, Weak Comps

<ul>
<li>ZTO Express reported another set of weak results after the US close on November 19</li>
<li>Although Q3 unit prices rose slightly, unit costs increased by much more, crushing margins</li>
<li>On both sides of the price-volume tradeoff, ZTO continues to lose profitability | AVOID</li>
</ul>


ZTO Express reported another set of weak results after the US close on November 19
Although Q3 unit prices rose slightly, unit costs increased by much more, crushing margins
On both sides of the price-volume tradeoff, ZTO continues to lose profitability | AVOID


ZTO Express Q325 Results | Revenue, ASPs Both Up Y/Y | But Earnings, Margins Both Down | AVOID

China

Yunda Holding Co Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides industrial investment, enterprise management, business consulting, car rental, technical development, information technology, and advertising services. Yunda Holding serves customers in China.

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Yunda Holding (002120 CH)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Lots of Noise in January 2026 Numbers From Four China-Listed Firms

The monthly operating statistics reported by the four China-listed express companies for January look strange, and we believe they contain lots of...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q425 Volume, ASP Data Show SF Holding Strength, ZTO Struggles

China's listed express parcel companies reported highly diverse volume and price data for Q425. The numbers show strong share gains for SF Holding,...

Tracking Traffic

SF Hldg and J&T Announce New Cross-Shareholding | Good Strategic Fit | Losers Are BABA, DHL, Flash

A cross-shareholding agreement between Chinese express firms SF Holding and J&T Global could address each company's weaknesses outside of China....

Tracking Traffic

Update on Hive Box Holdings IPO Process | Legal Dispute, Questions About Profitability, Weak Comps

In this insight we bring interested investors up to speed on the Hong Kong IPO plans of Hive Box, the Chinese parcel locker operator backed by SF...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express Q325 Results | Revenue, ASPs Both Up Y/Y | But Earnings, Margins Both Down | AVOID

ZTO reported another weak set of results on Wednesday, as margins collapsed in Q3 despite modest pricing improvement. Oh, and management cut volume...

Tracking Traffic

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