Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  US Equities close July a winning note as markets continue to price in the Goldilocks economy; Rally has broadened out beyond a few select tech stocks</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 142.3; NKY powers above 33k level despite prospect of higher rates;  Earnings in full swing - generally supportive; Nintendo-next Gen Console Coming ?</li>
<li>NUGGET. Nintendo(7974)- rumour of a Next Gen Console in 2024 is gaining traction. If true, would completely reboot the company's earnings and share price outlook </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  US Equities close July a winning note as markets continue to price in the Goldilocks economy; Rally has broadened out beyond a few select tech stocks
JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 142.3; NKY powers above 33k level despite prospect of higher rates;  Earnings in full swing - generally supportive; Nintendo-next Gen Console Coming ?
NUGGET. Nintendo(7974)- rumour of a Next Gen Console in 2024 is gaining traction. If true, would completely reboot the company's earnings and share price outlook 


Ohayo Japan| Goldilocks in Play Everywhere; NUGGET: New Console? Can't Keep a Super Mario Down!

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. PCE Deflator 3.0%YoY; 0.2%MoM calms (re)inflation fears; Yields fall,  Equities rebound as Goldilocks View of Economy/Markets intact; SPX 2Q earnings not so bad; China further moves to bolster economy; </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futures 1% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.2; BOJ Tweaks - 0.5% JGB10Y  yield now a reference, not a ceiling; To buy bonds at 1%.; Next inflation forecast 1.9%=continued easing</li>
<li>NUGGET. Nidec-Renesas Partnership potentially a big deal for both companies. Successful execution will lead to sales and profit growth for both companies in their respective areas.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. PCE Deflator 3.0%YoY; 0.2%MoM calms (re)inflation fears; Yields fall,  Equities rebound as Goldilocks View of Economy/Markets intact; SPX 2Q earnings not so bad; China further moves to bolster economy; 
JAPAN. NKY Futures 1% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.2; BOJ Tweaks - 0.5% JGB10Y  yield now a reference, not a ceiling; To buy bonds at 1%.; Next inflation forecast 1.9%=continued easing
NUGGET. Nidec-Renesas Partnership potentially a big deal for both companies. Successful execution will lead to sales and profit growth for both companies in their respective areas.


Ohayo Japan|Benign PCE Deflator Spurs Equities; BOJ Easing to Continue: Nidec+Renasas = A Big Deal

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. US Back to Equity Declines as Fed Minutes indicate  more hikes coming;  Yield Rise across the curve; SPX -0.2% with Cyclicals hit hardest; New Car Sales up Again</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.7;  RENGO confirms largest wage Hikes in 3 decades;  Rakuten Securites IPO=¥100bn? is it enough for parent?; Big Buyback from Leopalace(8848)</li>
<li>NUGGET.  Nintendo Switch Sales still has more to run ? it would seems so -as IP is driving sales to new records in its 7th YEAR !</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. US Back to Equity Declines as Fed Minutes indicate  more hikes coming;  Yield Rise across the curve; SPX -0.2% with Cyclicals hit hardest; New Car Sales up Again
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.7;  RENGO confirms largest wage Hikes in 3 decades;  Rakuten Securites IPO=¥100bn? is it enough for parent?; Big Buyback from Leopalace(8848)
NUGGET.  Nintendo Switch Sales still has more to run ? it would seems so -as IP is driving sales to new records in its 7th YEAR !


Ohayo Japan| Fed to Hike, Yields Rise, Stocks Drop; NUGGET: NINTENDO SWITCH-More Gas in the Engine?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. </li>
<li>While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.</li>
<li>Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. 
While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.
Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.


MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX +1.1% rebounds on Tech and Consumer led rally post strong housing, consumer confidence numbers; AI led names back strong after recent profit taking; China Primier says more stimulus</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.1;  Speculation grows on MoF Yen intervention as Japan appoints official who led last years intervention; Nintendo Family Office prevails over Toyo Construction</li>
<li>NUGGET. KEPCO(9503) formed a 50-50 JV with US DataCenter specialist CyrusOne. Will look to get 900MW over then next 10 years.  Could be significant future earnings driver for KEPCO.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX +1.1% rebounds on Tech and Consumer led rally post strong housing, consumer confidence numbers; AI led names back strong after recent profit taking; China Primier says more stimulus
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.1;  Speculation grows on MoF Yen intervention as Japan appoints official who led last years intervention; Nintendo Family Office prevails over Toyo Construction
NUGGET. KEPCO(9503) formed a 50-50 JV with US DataCenter specialist CyrusOne. Will look to get 900MW over then next 10 years.  Could be significant future earnings driver for KEPCO.


Ohayo Japan|SPX Rebounds on Raft of Good News; NUGGET: KEPCO(9503)-Nuke Restarts, Next Datacenters

Japan

Nintendo Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and sells household leisure equipment. The Company produces home use video game hardware and software products. Nintendo markets its products throughout Japan.

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Nintendo (NTDOY US)

Ohayo Japan| Goldilocks in Play Everywhere; NUGGET: New Console? Can't Keep a Super Mario Down!

SPX Up(agaiin); NKY Futures +0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 142.3; NKY powers above 33k level despite prospect of higher rates; Earnings in full swing -...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan|Benign PCE Deflator Spurs Equities; BOJ Easing to Continue: Nidec+Renasas = A Big Deal

US Equities rebound as confidence grows in Golilocks trade; NKY Futures 1% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.2; BOJ Tweaks -To buy 10 year bonds at 1%.; Next...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan| Fed to Hike, Yields Rise, Stocks Drop; NUGGET: NINTENDO SWITCH-More Gas in the Engine?

US back to Declines as Feb Minutes indicate Hikes ahead; NKY Futs -0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.7; RENGO confirms largest wage Hike in 3 decades - but...

Mark Chadwick

MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

MSCI $ACWI Bullish Above $93, inverse head-and-shoulders breakout targets $110; EURO $STOXX 50 Holding At the Uptrend; Buys in Consumer...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan|SPX Rebounds on Raft of Good News; NUGGET: KEPCO(9503)-Nuke Restarts, Next Datacenters

US stocks rebound on strong Macro; NKY Futs +0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.1; Speculation grows on MoF Yen intervention; Nintendo Family Office...

Mark Chadwick

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