Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.</li>
</ul>


PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tariff Headwinds: U.S. import tariffs could wipe out hardware margins, potentially costing Nintendo up to ¥95bn in FY3/26 gross profit.</li>
<li>Guidance Risk: With bullish consensus expecting ¥450bn in FY3/26 operating profit, upcoming guidance on July 5 may significantly disappoint.</li>
<li>Valuation Hinges on Recovery: FY3/27 earnings could rebound to ¥600bn if cycle normalises and tariff risks ease—implying a fair 13x EV/EBIT multiple.</li>
</ul>


Tariff Headwinds: U.S. import tariffs could wipe out hardware margins, potentially costing Nintendo up to ¥95bn in FY3/26 gross profit.
Guidance Risk: With bullish consensus expecting ¥450bn in FY3/26 operating profit, upcoming guidance on July 5 may significantly disappoint.
Valuation Hinges on Recovery: FY3/27 earnings could rebound to ¥600bn if cycle normalises and tariff risks ease—implying a fair 13x EV/EBIT multiple.


Nintendo (7974) | Next-Gen Switch 2 Meets Next-Level Margin Risk

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MSCI Japan in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial, Ebara, Honda Motor, Softbank, Ebara, Kioxia, Toyota Motor, Honda Motor, Sony Financial, Rakuten.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MSCI Japan in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial, Ebara, Honda Motor, Softbank, Ebara, Kioxia, Toyota Motor, Honda Motor, Sony Financial, Rakuten.


MSCI Japan Index Earning Revision (Nov): Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial

<ul>
<li>Switch slowdown: Nintendo’s Q3 revenue and profit fell sharply as the ageing console nears the end of its cycle, missing hardware sales expectations.</li>
<li>Guidance cut: Full-year revenue and profit forecasts were lowered, but investors remain focused on the upcoming Switch 2 launch.</li>
<li>Muted upside: Switch 2 is an incremental upgrade, unlikely to expand the market significantly or boost Nintendo’s valuation beyond its current fair value of ¥9,000 per share.</li>
</ul>


Switch slowdown: Nintendo’s Q3 revenue and profit fell sharply as the ageing console nears the end of its cycle, missing hardware sales expectations.
Guidance cut: Full-year revenue and profit forecasts were lowered, but investors remain focused on the upcoming Switch 2 launch.
Muted upside: Switch 2 is an incremental upgrade, unlikely to expand the market significantly or boost Nintendo’s valuation beyond its current fair value of ¥9,000 per share.


Nintendo (7974)| Nintendo: Switch 2 Can’t Come Soon Enough

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.
$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.
We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.


Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Japan

Nintendo Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and sells household leisure equipment. The Company produces home use video game hardware and software products. Nintendo markets its products throughout Japan.

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Nintendo (NTDOY US)

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

Nintendo (7974) | Next-Gen Switch 2 Meets Next-Level Margin Risk

US import tariffs could greatly impact Nintendo's profits, with upcoming guidance potentially falling short of expectations. Recovery in FY3/27...

Mark Chadwick

MSCI Japan Index Earning Revision (Nov): Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial

We analyzed MSCI Japan's consensus for Nov 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Toyota Motor (7203 JP), SoftBank (9984 JP), Rakuten (4755 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Nintendo (7974)| Nintendo: Switch 2 Can’t Come Soon Enough

Nintendo's Q3 revenue and profit decline as aging Switch nears end of cycle, investors eye Switch 2 launch for potential growth.

Mark Chadwick

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

Nintendo (7974) | Next-Gen Switch 2 Meets Next-Level Margin Risk

​US import tariffs could greatly impact Nintendo's profits, with upcoming guidance potentially falling short of expectations. Recovery in FY3/27...

Mark Chadwick

MSCI Japan Index Earning Revision (Nov): Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial

We analyzed MSCI Japan's consensus for Nov 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Toyota Motor (7203 JP), SoftBank (9984 JP), Rakuten (4755 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Nintendo (7974)| Nintendo: Switch 2 Can’t Come Soon Enough

​Nintendo's Q3 revenue and profit decline as aging Switch nears end of cycle, investors eye Switch 2 launch for potential growth.

Mark Chadwick

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

US import tariffs could greatly impact Nintendo's profits, with upcoming guidance potentially falling short of expectations. Recovery in FY3/27...

Nintendo's Q3 revenue and profit decline as aging Switch nears end of cycle, investors eye Switch 2 launch for potential growth.