Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US stocks eased ahead of the Fed meeting as rate-cut expectations rose, while Warner Bros. Discovery surged on a hostile bid, Netflix fell.</li>
<li>Nvidia rose after Trump said the U.S. will allow H200 AI chip exports to China with per-chip fees, despite concerns over aiding China’s military</li>
<li>Nintendo shares have pulled back despite strong early Switch 2 traction and raised guidance, with holiday data and upcoming catalysts suggesting potential for further forecast upgrades.</li>
</ul>


US stocks eased ahead of the Fed meeting as rate-cut expectations rose, while Warner Bros. Discovery surged on a hostile bid, Netflix fell.
Nvidia rose after Trump said the U.S. will allow H200 AI chip exports to China with per-chip fees, despite concerns over aiding China’s military
Nintendo shares have pulled back despite strong early Switch 2 traction and raised guidance, with holiday data and upcoming catalysts suggesting potential for further forecast upgrades.


Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Slip Ahead of Fed

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Japan is widely owned but lightly held: 88% of global funds now hold Japan—well ahead of Asian peers—yet average weights remain near 15-year lows and structurally underweight vs. ACWI.</li>
<li>Allocations are shallow and skewed: 75% of global funds hold less than 6.3% in Japan; exposures above 10% are rare and concentrated in Value and Yield strategies.</li>
<li>Tech &amp; Industrials dominate; ownership is fragmented: Japan exposure is concentrated in Tech/Industrials, with few consensus stocks beyond Sony and Keyence, and a long tail of lightly held names.</li>
</ul>


Japan is widely owned but lightly held: 88% of global funds now hold Japan—well ahead of Asian peers—yet average weights remain near 15-year lows and structurally underweight vs. ACWI.
Allocations are shallow and skewed: 75% of global funds hold less than 6.3% in Japan; exposures above 10% are rare and concentrated in Value and Yield strategies.
Tech &amp; Industrials dominate; ownership is fragmented: Japan exposure is concentrated in Tech/Industrials, with few consensus stocks beyond Sony and Keyence, and a long tail of lightly held names.


Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul>
<li>In Q4 2025, the global server market sees significant changes with E Ink and C3 launching Pixel Paper Labs in Sri Lanka.</li>
<li>China's rare earth export controls are tightening, leading to major hiring initiatives that impact global supply chains.</li>
<li>Nintendo's FY25 forecast improves due to strong Switch 2 sales, while Tesla faces challenges in India due to high import duties.</li>
</ul>


In Q4 2025, the global server market sees significant changes with E Ink and C3 launching Pixel Paper Labs in Sri Lanka.
China's rare earth export controls are tightening, leading to major hiring initiatives that impact global supply chains.
Nintendo's FY25 forecast improves due to strong Switch 2 sales, while Tesla faces challenges in India due to high import duties.


Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Nov-2025): Global Server Market Forecast, Q4 2025

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.</li>
<li>Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.</li>
<li>As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
</ul>


We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.
Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.
As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).


Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Marvell the latest US tech major to raise its TAM for AI helping buoy related names.</li>
<li>Deal that sees Wolfspeed briefly dipping into chapter11 may bode well for Renesas.</li>
<li>Sega Sammy lays out plans to get its valuations up and inline with peers as games surge given their tariff resilience.</li>
</ul>


Marvell the latest US tech major to raise its TAM for AI helping buoy related names.
Deal that sees Wolfspeed briefly dipping into chapter11 may bode well for Renesas.
Sega Sammy lays out plans to get its valuations up and inline with peers as games surge given their tariff resilience.


Japan Morning Connection: Fears over Iran Continue to Diminish Despite the Spectre of US Involvement

Japan

Nintendo Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and sells household leisure equipment. The Company produces home use video game hardware and software products. Nintendo markets its products throughout Japan.

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Nintendo (NTDOY US)

Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Slip Ahead of Fed

US stocks fluctuated before the Fed meeting, Warner Bros. Discovery saw a boost from a hostile bid while Netflix dropped. Nvidia gained after...

Mark Chadwick

Japan: Cautious Reengagment

Global ownership of Japan is rising, but conviction remains weak. Allocations sit near historic lows, with Value funds leading a cautious rotation...

Steven Holden

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Nov-2025): Global Server Market Forecast, Q4 2025

In Q4 2025, the global server market sees E Ink's Pixel Paper Labs launch, China's rare earth export controls, Nintendo's FY25 forecast improves...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

Japan Morning Connection: Fears over Iran Continue to Diminish Despite the Spectre of US Involvement

JP game companies Nintendo and Sega Sammy continue to rise. Battery names may start to suffer. Wolfspeed deal may positively impact Renesas.

Andrew Jackson

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Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Slip Ahead of Fed

​US stocks fluctuated before the Fed meeting, Warner Bros. Discovery saw a boost from a hostile bid while Netflix dropped. Nvidia gained after...

Mark Chadwick

Japan: Cautious Reengagment

Global ownership of Japan is rising, but conviction remains weak. Allocations sit near historic lows, with Value funds leading a cautious rotation...

Steven Holden

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Nov-2025): Global Server Market Forecast, Q4 2025

In Q4 2025, the global server market sees E Ink's Pixel Paper Labs launch, China's rare earth export controls, Nintendo's FY25 forecast improves...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

Japan Morning Connection: Fears over Iran Continue to Diminish Despite the Spectre of US Involvement

JP game companies Nintendo and Sega Sammy continue to rise. Battery names may start to suffer. Wolfspeed deal may positively impact Renesas.

Andrew Jackson

US stocks fluctuated before the Fed meeting, Warner Bros. Discovery saw a boost from a hostile bid while Netflix dropped. Nvidia gained after...